Football Stats Hub

São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo
v
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

Serie B | Sun 23 Aug, 20:00

São Bernardo v Nautico Recife Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features São Bernardo hosting Nautico Recife in a tightly contested fixture with both sides near the lower mid-table and separated by just one point. Nautico Recife arrives with stronger recent form, having collected nine points compared to São Bernardo's four in their last five matches. The away side's defensive solidity contrasts with São Bernardo's more open style, suggesting a tactical battle where Nautico Recife's efficiency and momentum could be decisive. Both teams have shown mixed attacking output, adding an element of uncertainty to the outcome at this stage of the campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Nautico Recife to Win

  • Nautico Recife holds a 63.5% to win, offering significant value at 3.25 .
  • São Bernardo concedes 1.8 goals per game, while Nautico Recife concedes only 0.6, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Nautico Recife has earned 9 points in recent form versus São Bernardo's 4, indicating better momentum.
  • São Bernardo's high BTTS rate (80%) contrasts with Nautico Recife's more conservative 60%.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4 over five matches, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Nautico Recife to win with a 63.5% probability, reflecting their superior defensive record and recent form momentum. Despite longer implying a 30.8% chance, the of 32.7% highlights an attractive betting opportunity. Nautico Recife's ability to limit goals against (0.6 per game) and their efficient attack led by key players supports this . The model's high (88) further underlines the robustness of this pick, although São Bernardo's home advantage and attacking threat warrant cautious staking.

Model Win Probability63.5%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance30.8%
Positive
Value Edge32.7%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsNautico Recife 9 vs São Bernardo 4
Positive
Defensive Goals AgainstNautico Recife 0.6 vs São Bernardo 1.8
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nautico Recife's recent form and defensive resilience make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this matchup. Their ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on chances contrasts with São Bernardo's vulnerability at the back, making an away win a logical outcome based on current data.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based rationale for Nautico Recife win

“Nautico Recife's disciplined defense and momentum provide a solid foundation for an away victory, especially against a São Bernardo side that concedes frequently and struggles to maintain consistency.”

Key Data Signals

Nautico Recife to Win evidence

Nautico Recife holds a 63.5% to win, offering significant value at 3.25 .

São Bernardo concedes 1.8 goals per game, while Nautico Recife concedes only 0.6, highlighting defensive strength.

Nautico Recife has earned 9 points in recent form versus São Bernardo's 4, indicating better momentum.

São Bernardo's high BTTS rate (80%) contrasts with Nautico Recife's more conservative 60%.

What To Watch In The Data

Nautico Recife to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches and five head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally stands at 2.4, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • São Bernardo's higher Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Nautico Recife's conservative approach, suggesting a match where tempo and defensive organization will dictate goal opportunities rather than open attacking play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

São Bernardo1.6
Avg goals scored
Nautico Recife1
São Bernardo1.8
Avg goals conceded
Nautico Recife0.6
São Bernardo80%
BTTS rate
Nautico Recife60%
São Bernardo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Nautico Recife20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
São Bernardo's high BTTS rate of 80% and 60% Over 2.5 goals contrasts with Nautico Recife's more conservative 60% BTTS and 20% Over 2.5. This suggests a match with moderate scoring potential but a likelihood of both teams scoring. The average 2.4 goals in their last five meetings supports a balanced goal expectation rather than a low-scoring affair.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The current of 3.25 for a Nautico Recife win offer strong value given the model's 63.5% estimated chance. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates Nautico Recife's defensive solidity and recent form. The price is attractive for bettors seeking a positive expected return, with no immediate warning flags on price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

São Bernardo7.4
Avg corners for
Nautico Recife6.4
São Bernardo13.6
Avg total corners
Nautico Recife12
São Bernardo1.6
Avg yellow cards
Nautico Recife4.6
São Bernardo16.4
Avg shots
Nautico Recife17.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 67% · edge +2.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams generate similar shot volumes, with Nautico Recife averaging 17.8 shots and São Bernardo 16.4 per game, indicating active offensive play. São Bernardo averages fewer yellow cards (1.6) than Nautico Recife (4.6), suggesting Nautico Recife may play a more physical or aggressive style, potentially influencing match tempo and discipline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

São Bernardo

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
19 Aug 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
14 Aug 2026H Botafogo SP0-1
07 Aug 2026A Operario-PR3-1
26 Jul 2026H Ceara3-4
23 Jul 2026A Athletic Club1-2

Nautico Recife

WDDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
19 Aug 2026H Ceara1-0
14 Aug 2026A Ponte Preta1-1
09 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-1
26 Jul 2026A Criciuma0-0
23 Jul 2026H Londrina2-1
Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Nautico Recife's recent form is notably stronger, securing 9 points in their last five matches compared to São Bernardo's 4. This momentum is underpinned by a solid defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, contrasting with São Bernardo's 1.8, highlighting Nautico Recife's capacity to control games and limit opposition chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1São Bernardo wins
3Draws
1Nautico Recife wins
18 Apr 2026Nautico Recife v São Bernardo0-3
24 Aug 2025São Bernardo v Nautico Recife1-1
21 Apr 2024Nautico Recife v São Bernardo1-1
26 Aug 2023Nautico Recife v São Bernardo2-2
01 Mar 2023São Bernardo v Nautico Recife0-1
Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The five previous meetings between these sides have averaged 2.4 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters without control by either team. This historical data provides context but is less decisive than current form and defensive metrics, which favor Nautico Recife's chances in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

São Bernardo23
Played
Nautico Recife23
São Bernardo1.4
Avg goals for
Nautico Recife1.2
São Bernardo1.1
Avg goals against
Nautico Recife1.1
São Bernardo5
Clean sheets
Nautico Recife7
Market aligned with main pickNautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Throughout the season, Nautico Recife has demonstrated defensive discipline, conceding fewer goals and maintaining a lower BTTS rate than São Bernardo. São Bernardo's higher goals conceded and BTTS rates reflect a more open style, which Nautico Recife can exploit with their efficient counter-attacking and set-piece threat.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13São Bernardo31238786
15Nautico Recife30238691
Both teams occupy mid-lower table positions with São Bernardo 13th and Nautico Recife 15th, separated by a single point. This proximity adds competitive tension but the standings offer limited insight due to the league's tightness. The focus remains on form and tactical matchups rather than table pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%São Bernardo Over 2.5
20%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches and five head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally stands at 2.4, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. São Bernardo's higher Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Nautico Recife's conservative approach, suggesting a match where tempo and defensive organization will dictate goal opportunities rather than open attacking play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Ceara v LondrinaSerie B · Sat 22 Aug 22:00Cuiaba v GoiasSerie B · Sat 22 Aug 22:30Ponte Preta v AvaiSerie B · Sun 23 Aug 20:00Operario-PR v Vila NovaSerie B · Sun 23 Aug 22:00

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictions

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre