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Ceara crestCeara
v
Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Sat 22 Aug, 22:00

Ceara v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ceara and Londrina meet in a Serie B clash where both teams are battling to climb out of the relegation zone, with Ceara sitting 17th and Londrina 18th. Ceara's recent form shows more promise, having collected six points in their last three matches compared to Londrina's single point. Ceara's attack is more productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game, while Londrina struggles to score consistently. The match carries high stakes for both sides aiming to avoid the drop, setting up a tense encounter where Ceara's slightly better momentum and home advantage could be decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Ceara to Win

  • Ceara has earned 6 points in their last three matches versus Londrina's 1 point.
  • Ceara averages 1.4 goals per game, outscoring Londrina's 0.6 average.
  • Londrina concedes slightly more, with 1.8 goals against per game compared to Ceara's 1.6.
  • Ceara's home rank is 17th, narrowly above Londrina in 18th, highlighting the relegation battle intensity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Ceara to win with a 71.1% chance, reflecting their stronger recent form and superior attacking output. Ceara's higher shot volume and better goal conversion underpin this . The of 1.73 imply a 57.8% chance, offering a positive of 13.3%. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest a competitive match, but Ceara's momentum and home advantage provide a clear edge. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on form and statistical profiles.

Model Win Probability71.1%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsCeara 6 vs Londrina 1
Strong positive
Goals per GameCeara 1.4 vs Londrina 0.6
Positive
Implied Odds Chance57.8%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ceara's recent momentum and more effective attack make them the tactical favorite in this relegation battle. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with Londrina's struggles to secure points, suggests Ceara is well placed to secure a vital home victory in this crucial Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Ceara's sharper attacking players and recent form give them a clear edge in this tight relegation fight, making them the logical pick to claim all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Ceara to Win evidence

Ceara has earned 6 points in their last three matches versus Londrina's 1 point.

Ceara averages 1.4 goals per game, outscoring Londrina's 0.6 average.

Londrina concedes slightly more, with 1.8 goals against per game compared to Ceara's 1.6.

Ceara's home rank is 17th, narrowly above Londrina in 18th, highlighting the relegation battle intensity.

What To Watch In The Data

Ceara to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Londrina's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Ceara's (40%) suggests this fixture could see open play and goal opportunities, influenced by Londrina's attacking style and defensive vulnerabilities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ceara4
Avg corners for
Londrina6
Ceara9.4
Avg total corners
Londrina11.6
Ceara2
Avg yellow cards
Londrina1.4
Ceara15.4
Avg shots
Londrina16
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 56% · edge -2.5 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Londrina averages more corners (6) and fewer yellow cards (1.4) than Ceara (4 corners, 2 yellows), suggesting Londrina may press more aggressively but with less disciplinary risk. Ceara's higher shots on target (5.8 vs 3.6) indicate better finishing opportunities, supporting their attacking threat.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ceara1.4
Avg goals scored
Londrina0.6
Ceara1.6
Avg goals conceded
Londrina1.8
Ceara40%
BTTS rate
Londrina60%
Ceara40%
Over 2.5 goals
Londrina60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have moderate goalscoring and conceding records, with Ceara averaging 1.4 goals and Londrina 0.6. Londrina's higher BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates suggest potential for goals at both ends, but Ceara's defensive solidity slightly tempers this, indicating a balanced goal-scoring outlook.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCeara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 58% · edge +13.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Ceara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
The for Ceara to win at 1.73 offer positive value compared to the model's 71.1% win probability. This price reflects market in Ceara's form and home advantage, making this a price-sensitive but attractive bet without warning flags.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ceara

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
19 Aug 2026A Nautico Recife0-1
15 Aug 2026H Cuiaba1-3
08 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
26 Jul 2026A São Bernardo4-3
22 Jul 2026H CRB0-1

Londrina

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
18 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-0
15 Aug 2026A Sport Recife1-2
10 Aug 2026A Goias0-1
26 Jul 2026H Novorizontino1-4
23 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife1-2
Market aligned with main pickCeara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 58% · edge +13.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Ceara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Ceara's recent form is markedly better, securing six points in their last three matches compared to Londrina's single point. Ceara's improved attacking output and defensive resilience underpin their and suggest momentum advantage heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Ceara wins
2Draws
1Londrina wins
19 Apr 2026Londrina v Ceara0-0
07 Sep 2023Ceara v Londrina3-1
24 May 2023Londrina v Ceara1-3
21 Feb 2018Londrina v Ceara1-2
09 Sep 2017Londrina v Ceara3-2
03 Jun 2017Ceara v Londrina1-0
Market aligned with main pickCeara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 58% · edge +13.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
The eight previous meetings between Ceara and Londrina have averaged 2.5 goals per game, showing a balanced scoring history. While this sample is moderate, it suggests neither side dominates decisively, making current form and home advantage more decisive factors in predicting the outcome.
Season team stats

Serie B

Ceara23
Played
Londrina23
Ceara1
Avg goals for
Londrina1.2
Ceara1.3
Avg goals against
Londrina1.5
Ceara5
Clean sheets
Londrina5
Market aligned with main pickCeara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 58% · edge +13.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Ceara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over the season, Ceara's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game, while their defense concedes 1.6 goals. Londrina's lower scoring rate and slightly higher goals conceded reflect their struggles, reinforcing Ceara's edge in both scoring and defensive stability.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Ceara25236710-6
18Londrina21235612-6
Both teams are positioned near the relegation zone, with Ceara 17th and Londrina 18th, intensifying the stakes. This proximity adds pressure to secure points, but Ceara's slightly better points tally and form provide a marginal advantage in this crucial phase of the Serie B campaign.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Ceara Over 2.5
60%Londrina Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Londrina's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Ceara's (40%) suggests this fixture could see open play and goal opportunities, influenced by Londrina's attacking style and defensive vulnerabilities.

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