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São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo
v
Atletico Goianiense crestAtletico Goianiense

Serie B | Sat 19 Sep, 01:00

São Bernardo v Atletico Goianiense Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

São Bernardo face Atletico Goianiense in Serie B on Sat 19 Sep, 01:00. São Bernardo come in with 7 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Atletico Goianiense have 13 points and 2.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Goianiense to Win

  • At 2.7, Atletico Goianiense to Win implies roughly 37%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • Atletico Goianiense have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for São Bernardo.
  • Atletico Goianiense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Goianiense to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • São Bernardo sit 13 in the table, while Atletico Goianiense sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 52% for Atletico Goianiense to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price. Atletico Goianiense have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for São Bernardo.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 37% implied
Strong positive
Atletico Goianiense have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Atletico Goianiense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atletico Goianiense Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Atletico Goianiense have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for São Bernardo. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Atletico Goianiense to Win evidence

Atletico Goianiense have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for São Bernardo.

Atletico Goianiense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Atletico Goianiense Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

São Bernardo sit 13 in the table, while Atletico Goianiense sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Goianiense to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    São Bernardo1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Atletico Goianiense2.4
    São Bernardo1
    Avg goals conceded
    Atletico Goianiense0.6
    São Bernardo60%
    BTTS rate
    Atletico Goianiense40%
    São Bernardo40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atletico Goianiense80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Atletico Goianiense to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    São Bernardo6
    Avg corners for
    Atletico Goianiense4.6
    São Bernardo10.4
    Avg total corners
    Atletico Goianiense10
    São Bernardo1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Atletico Goianiense2.2
    São Bernardo13.8
    Avg shots
    Atletico Goianiense16
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 52% · edge +0.7 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    São Bernardo

    WLWLD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    14 Sep 2026A America Mineiro2-0
    10 Sep 2026H Londrina1-2
    06 Sep 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
    28 Aug 2026A Goias1-2
    23 Aug 2026H Nautico Recife1-1

    Atletico Goianiense

    WWDWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 3D 1L
    13 Sep 2026H Criciuma4-0
    10 Sep 2026H Ceara2-1
    05 Sep 2026A Juventude2-2
    30 Aug 2026A Avai1-0
    25 Aug 2026H Botafogo SP3-0
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1São Bernardo wins
    0Draws
    0Atletico Goianiense wins
    24 May 2026Atletico Goianiense v São Bernardo0-1
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Atletico Goianiense to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie B

    São Bernardo28
    Played
    Atletico Goianiense28
    São Bernardo1.4
    Avg goals for
    Atletico Goianiense1.3
    São Bernardo1.1
    Avg goals against
    Atletico Goianiense0.9
    São Bernardo7
    Clean sheets
    Atletico Goianiense10
    Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Atletico Goianiense to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Atletico Goianiense46281210610
    13São Bernardo3828108108
    São Bernardo sit in position 13, while Atletico Goianiense sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Atletico Goianiense to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%São Bernardo Over 2.5
    80%Atletico Goianiense Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: São Bernardo sit at 40% and Atletico Goianiense sit at 80% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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