Football Stats Hub

Ceara crestCeara
v
Novorizontino crestNovorizontino

Serie B | Sat 19 Sep, 00:30

Ceara v Novorizontino Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ceara face Novorizontino in Serie B on Sat 19 Sep, 00:30. Ceara come in with 7 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while Novorizontino have 13 points and 2.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.1, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Ceara and 80% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Novorizontino are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.6 goals per match, with Ceara at 1.2.
  • BTTS rates of 80% for Ceara and 100% for Novorizontino show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Ceara and 80% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Ceara and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
Novorizontino are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.6.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Ceara and 80% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Ceara and 80% for Novorizontino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Novorizontino are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.6 goals per match, with Ceara at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 80% for Ceara and 100% for Novorizontino show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ceara7
Avg corners for
Novorizontino7.2
Ceara11.4
Avg total corners
Novorizontino13
Ceara2.2
Avg yellow cards
Novorizontino1
Ceara15
Avg shots
Novorizontino18.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ceara1.2
Avg goals scored
Novorizontino2.6
Ceara1.4
Avg goals conceded
Novorizontino1
Ceara80%
BTTS rate
Novorizontino100%
Ceara60%
Over 2.5 goals
Novorizontino80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Novorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Ceara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ceara

DLWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
13 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
10 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-2
05 Sep 2026H Sport Recife2-1
30 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-2
22 Aug 2026H Londrina2-1

Novorizontino

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Cuiaba1-1
09 Sep 2026A Botafogo SP3-1
05 Sep 2026H Avai3-1
29 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1
24 Aug 2026A Athletic Club4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Novorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Ceara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Ceara wins
0Draws
3Novorizontino wins
23 May 2026Novorizontino v Ceara2-1
27 Aug 2024Ceara v Novorizontino1-0
10 May 2024Novorizontino v Ceara0-3
19 Sep 2023Novorizontino v Ceara4-1
28 May 2023Ceara v Novorizontino0-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Novorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie B

Ceara28
Played
Novorizontino28
Ceara1
Avg goals for
Novorizontino1.7
Ceara1.3
Avg goals against
Novorizontino0.9
Ceara5
Clean sheets
Novorizontino9
Best odds for this sectionNovorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Novorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Ceara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Season data supports Novorizontino Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Novorizontino5028148623
15Ceara32288812-7
Ceara sit in position 15, while Novorizontino sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Ceara Over 2.5
80%Novorizontino Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ceara sit at 60% and Novorizontino sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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