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Santos crest

Santos

v

Cruzeiro crest

Cruzeiro

Serie A | Sun 13 Sep, 01:00

Santos v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santos face Cruzeiro in Serie A on Sun 13 Sep, 01:00. Santos come in with 10 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Cruzeiro have 12 points and 2.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

At 1.95, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Santos and 100% for Cruzeiro, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2 goals per match, with Santos at 1.6.
BTTS rates of 40% for Santos and 100% for Cruzeiro show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Santos and 100% for Cruzeiro, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 51% implied

Positive

The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Santos and 100%.Visible data support

Positive

Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2.Visible data support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Santos and 100% for Cruzeiro, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Santos and 100% for Cruzeiro, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Cruzeiro are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2 goals per match, with Santos at 1.6.

BTTS rates of 40% for Santos and 100% for Cruzeiro show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos5

Avg corners for

Cruzeiro4.8

Santos9.6

Avg total corners

Cruzeiro8.8

Santos2

Avg yellow cards

Cruzeiro2.6

Santos13.4

Avg shots

Cruzeiro16

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.6 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictions corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos1.6

Avg goals scored

Cruzeiro2.2

Santos1

Avg goals conceded

Cruzeiro1.4

Santos40%

BTTS rate

Cruzeiro100%

Santos40%

Over 2.5 goals

Cruzeiro100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.9 pts

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 74%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.9 pts

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 74%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

WWDWL

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 2D 4L

06 Sep 2026A Internacional3-2

30 Aug 2026A Corinthians1-0

23 Aug 2026H Mirassol1-1

16 Aug 2026A Vasco DA Gama3-0

09 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense0-2

Cruzeiro

WLWWW

Last 54W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 107W 1D 2L

06 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-1

30 Aug 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-3

23 Aug 2026H Flamengo2-1

16 Aug 2026A Corinthians2-1

09 Aug 2026H Mirassol3-1

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 74% · edge +5 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Santos wins

1Draws

5Cruzeiro wins

22 Mar 2026Cruzeiro v Santos0-0

07 Dec 2025Santos v Cruzeiro3-0

10 Aug 2025Cruzeiro v Santos1-2

14 Sep 2023Santos v Cruzeiro0-3

06 May 2023Cruzeiro v Santos2-1

24 Nov 2019Santos v Cruzeiro4-1

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.9 pts

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 74%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

Serie A

Santos25

Played

Cruzeiro26

Santos1.5

Avg goals for

Cruzeiro1.5

Santos1.5

Avg goals against

Cruzeiro1.4

Santos6

Clean sheets

Cruzeiro5

Best odds for this sectionCruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 53% · edge +8.6 pts

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

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Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Season data supports Cruzeiro Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
6	Cruzeiro	42	26	12	6	8	1
13	Santos	32	25	8	8	9	-1

Santos sit in position 13, while Cruzeiro sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Santos Over 2.5

100%Cruzeiro Over 2.5

2.6H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Santos sit at 40% and Cruzeiro sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

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