Gremio

Vasco DA Gama

Serie A | Sat 12 Sep, 20:00

Gremio v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown a combative style, reflected in their recent matches. Gremio sits 15th with 28 points, while Vasco DA Gama is close behind in 17th with 25 points, both fighting to climb the standings. Recent form indicates tight encounters with defensive resilience but also aggressive challenges, suggesting a physical contest. The match is likely to feature intense midfield battles and tactical fouling as both sides seek control, setting the stage for a high-card game with disciplinary pressure mounting from the outset.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

Gremio averages 3.6 yellow cards per game, Vasco DA Gama 2.6, indicating physical play.
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, showing open play tendencies.
Vasco DA Gama averages 16 shots per game, suggesting attacking intent that can provoke fouls.
Key players like W. Kannemann and André Henrique have high card risk, increasing card count likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 68% chance for over 4.5 cards, supported by both teams' aggressive defensive stats and high foul counts. Gremio's average of 3.6 yellows per game combined with Vasco DA Gama's physical approach creates a strong case for a card-heavy match. The price at 1.73 offers positive value with a 10.2% edge, reflecting the likelihood of sustained disciplinary action. Player-level data highlights individuals with elevated card risk, reinforcing the expectation of frequent cautions. This pick is well supported by recent form and season-long defensive intensity.

Model Chance68%

Strong positive

Gremio Yellow Cards Avg3.6 per game

Strong positive

Vasco DA Gama Yellow Cards Avg2.6 per game

Positive

Price Value Edge10.2%

Strong positive

Key Players Card RiskHigh for Kannemann and Henrique

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with both Gremio and Vasco DA Gama engaging in aggressive challenges to assert midfield control. The high average yellow cards per game for both teams, combined with key players prone to cautions, suggests that over 4.5 cards is a realistic outcome. Tactical fouling and physical duels will likely drive the card count upward, making this bet a sound choice based on form and player discipline profiles.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“This fixture’s physical nature and player discipline profiles strongly indicate a high number of cards. Gremio’s defensive aggression and Vasco DA Gama’s attacking pressure create a scenario ripe for frequent cautions.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Gremio averages 3.6 yellow cards per game, Vasco DA Gama 2.6, indicating physical play.

Vasco DA Gama averages 16 shots per game, suggesting attacking intent that can provoke fouls.

Key players like W. Kannemann and André Henrique have high card risk, increasing card count likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2, with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate.
This tempo and openness suggest transitions and duels that typically increase fouling and card incidents, supporting the over 4.5 cards market.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio4.8

Avg corners for

Vasco DA Gama6

Gremio12

Avg total corners

Vasco DA Gama9.8

Gremio3.6

Avg yellow cards

Vasco DA Gama2.6

Gremio11.6

Avg shots

Vasco DA Gama16

Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Gremio and Vasco DA Gama both generate significant shot volumes and corners, with Vasco DA Gama averaging 16 shots and 6 corners per game. This attacking pressure often leads to defensive fouls and cards, supported by Gremio’s 3.6 yellows per game average.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hub corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1

Avg goals scored

Vasco DA Gama0.8

Gremio1.4

Avg goals conceded

Vasco DA Gama1.8

Gremio40%

BTTS rate

Vasco DA Gama40%

Gremio60%

Over 2.5 goals

Vasco DA Gama60%

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +5.4 pts

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 36%

3.75

Check odds @ 3.75

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open play that often correlates with increased fouling and disciplinary actions. The average goals per game and BTTS rates suggest attacking intent, which can provoke tactical fouls and cards.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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Gremio to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%

2.88

Check odds @ 2.88

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

The current of 1.73 for over 4.5 cards reflect a positive value opportunity given the model’s 68% probability estimate. The 10.2% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a card-heavy game, making this a price-sensitive but attractive bet.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

LWLLW

Last 52W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 2D 5L

08 Sep 2026A Vitoria0-1

30 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc3-1

23 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino0-1

16 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG0-3

08 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo2-1

Vasco DA Gama

LWLLD

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 7L

06 Sep 2026A Fluminense0-1

30 Aug 2026H Cruzeiro3-1

23 Aug 2026A Palmeiras1-4

16 Aug 2026H Santos0-3

09 Aug 2026A Bahia0-0

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 81% vs implied 71% · edge +9.8 pts

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

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Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Gremio to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 55%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%

2.88

Check odds @ 2.88

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Recent matches show Gremio averaging 3.6 yellow cards and Vasco DA Gama 2.6, confirming a pattern of physical contests. Both teams’ recent form supports a scenario where disciplinary actions are frequent, aligning with the over 4.5 cards pick.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Gremio wins

2Draws

3Vasco DA Gama wins

22 Mar 2026Vasco DA Gama v Gremio2-1

20 Nov 2025Gremio v Vasco DA Gama2-0

19 Jul 2025Vasco DA Gama v Gremio1-1

28 Jul 2024Gremio v Vasco DA Gama1-0

14 Apr 2024Vasco DA Gama v Gremio2-1

03 Dec 2023Gremio v Vasco DA Gama1-0

Best odds for this sectionGremio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%

2.88

Check odds @ 2.88

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

The last ten meetings average 2 goals per game, indicating competitive but open matches. While the goal average is moderate, the physicality in these encounters has historically led to frequent fouls and cards, lending some background support to the high card count expectation.

Season team stats

Serie A

Gremio25

Played

Vasco DA Gama25

Gremio1.1

Avg goals for

Vasco DA Gama1.1

Gremio1.3

Avg goals against

Vasco DA Gama1.6

Gremio5

Clean sheets

Vasco DA Gama2

Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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Gremio to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%

2.88

Check odds @ 2.88

Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Season-long data reveals Gremio concedes 1.4 goals per game and Vasco DA Gama 1.8, with both sides engaging in aggressive defensive tactics. The high average yellow cards per match for both teams underpin the expectation of a card-laden encounter.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
15	Gremio	28	25	7	7	11	-6
17	Vasco DA Gama	25	25	6	7	12	-13

Both teams are positioned near the relegation zone, increasing the stakes and likelihood of intense, physical play as they fight for points. This competitive pressure often translates into more fouls and cards as teams seek to disrupt opponents’ rhythm.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gremio Over 2.5

60%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5

2H2H avg goals

Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2, with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate. This tempo and openness suggest transitions and duels that typically increase fouling and card incidents, supporting the over 4.5 cards market.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Gremio v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Match Report

Over 4.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Gremio v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Match Report

Over 4.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

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Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Gremio

Vasco DA Gama

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