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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc
v
Internacional crestInternacional

Serie A | Sat 12 Sep, 21:00

Chapecoense-sc v Internacional Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chapecoense-sc and Internacional meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown aggressive defensive tendencies and high foul counts in recent matches. Chapecoense-sc, struggling near the bottom of the table, have conceded 1.8 goals per game and average 2.4 yellow cards, reflecting their physical approach to halt opponents. Internacional, also in the relegation zone, concede 1.4 goals and average 3 yellows per game, indicating a similarly combative style. This fixture promises intense midfield battles and tactical fouling as both sides seek crucial points to improve their standings.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Chapecoense-sc averages 2.4 yellow cards per game, showing a physical defensive style.
  • Internacional leads with 3 yellow cards per game, highlighting aggressive play.
  • Both teams have recent matches with high card counts, supporting Over 4.5 Cards.
  • Midfield battles and defensive pressure increase likelihood of fouls and cards.
  • Key players like Victor Gabriel have high card risk, adding to card volume potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a strong value bet with a 66.1% chance against a 59.9% implied market chance, reflecting the teams' aggressive defensive styles and high foul rates. Both Chapecoense-sc and Internacional average over 2 yellow cards per match, with Internacional particularly prone to disciplinary actions. The presence of card-prone players like Victor Gabriel and Yago Felipe further supports this. The model is high at 73%, indicating a robust statistical basis for this pick.

Team foul ratesChapecoense-sc 2.4 yellows, Internacional 3 yellows per game
Strong positive
Player card riskVictor Gabriel 7 yellows, Yago Felipe 0.57 yellows per 90
Positive
Model chance vs market66.1% vs 59.9%, positive value edge
Strong positive
Match stakes and intensityBoth teams fight relegation, increasing physicality
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with both Chapecoense-sc and Internacional employing aggressive tactics to secure vital points. The high foul rates and card-prone players suggest that Over 4.5 Cards is a sensible bet, reflecting the physical nature and defensive urgency of both sides in this relegation battle.

Main risk

For Internacional, the obvious risk is doing almost everything except score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's intensity and defensive aggression almost guarantee a high card count, with key players known for disciplinary risks likely to contribute significantly to the tally.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Chapecoense-sc averages 2.4 yellow cards per game, showing a physical defensive style.

Internacional leads with 3 yellow cards per game, highlighting aggressive play.

Both teams have recent matches with high card counts, supporting Over 4.5 Cards.

Midfield battles and defensive pressure increase likelihood of fouls and cards.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring but the focus here is on disciplinary trends.
  • Recent matches involving these teams have shown a tendency for high card counts due to intense midfield battles and defensive pressure, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel as a tempo indicator but emphasizing physicality.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chapecoense-sc1.6
Avg goals scored
Internacional1
Chapecoense-sc1.8
Avg goals conceded
Internacional1.4
Chapecoense-sc80%
BTTS rate
Internacional60%
Chapecoense-sc80%
Over 2.5 goals
Internacional40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown moderate scoring rates but the focus here is on disciplinary trends. Chapecoense-sc and Internacional's matches often feature physical play leading to fouls and cards rather than high goal totals. The BTTS rates are less relevant but the aggressive defensive approach suggests more fouls and cards than goals.

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Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Internacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The Over 4.5 Cards market is priced attractively with a 1.67 odd reflecting a 59.9% implied chance, while the model estimates a 66.1% probability, indicating positive value. Given the teams' disciplinary records and match context, the price offers a good opportunity without requiring movement to improve.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Chapecoense-sc5
Avg corners for
Internacional4.4
Chapecoense-sc9.6
Avg total corners
Internacional8.4
Chapecoense-sc2.4
Avg yellow cards
Internacional3
Chapecoense-sc15.2
Avg shots
Internacional14
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.2 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
Chapecoense-sc averages 5 corners and 15.2 shots per game, while Internacional averages 4.4 corners and 14 shots, indicating decent attacking activity that often leads to defensive pressure and fouls. The high average yellow cards per team reflect frequent fouling and tactical challenges, supporting the Over 4.5 Cards market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chapecoense-sc

WLWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
06 Sep 2026A Corinthians2-1
30 Aug 2026A Gremio1-3
23 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo1-0
16 Aug 2026H Bahia3-3
09 Aug 2026A Coritiba1-2

Internacional

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 6L
06 Sep 2026H Santos2-3
30 Aug 2026A Bahia2-3
22 Aug 2026H Atletico-MG0-0
18 Aug 2026H Remo1-1
09 Aug 2026A Palmeiras0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Internacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Internacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form data shows Chapecoense-sc averaging 2.4 yellow cards per game and Internacional 3, both above league averages. This trend aligns with the model's pick for Over 4.5 Cards, reflecting ongoing aggressive defensive tactics and high foul counts in their latest matches.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Chapecoense-sc wins
1Draws
5Internacional wins
22 Mar 2026Internacional v Chapecoense-sc2-0
10 Oct 2021Internacional v Chapecoense-sc5-2
24 Jun 2021Chapecoense-sc v Internacional1-2
22 Sep 2019Internacional v Chapecoense-SC1-0
27 Apr 2019Chapecoense-SC v Internacional2-0
18 Sep 2018Chapecoense-sc v Internacional2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Internacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows moderate goal scoring but does not strongly support or contradict the card market. However, the competitive nature of these fixtures often results in physical contests and tactical fouling, which aligns with the Over 4.5 Cards pick despite limited direct card data from past meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Season team stats

Serie A

Chapecoense-sc25
Played
Internacional26
Chapecoense-sc1.1
Avg goals for
Internacional1.1
Chapecoense-sc2
Avg goals against
Internacional1.3
Chapecoense-sc2
Clean sheets
Internacional6
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Internacional Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Internacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long statistics confirm both teams maintain high yellow card averages, with Chapecoense-sc at 2.4 and Internacional at 3 per game. Their defensive frailties and need to disrupt opposition attacks contribute to frequent fouling, reinforcing the likelihood of surpassing 4.5 cards in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Internacional252651011-6
20Chapecoense-sc17253814-23
Both teams are positioned near the bottom of the Serie A table, intensifying the stakes and likely physicality of the match. This pressure often translates into aggressive defensive play and tactical fouling, increasing the probability of a high card count consistent with the Over 4.5 Cards selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
40%Internacional Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring but the focus here is on disciplinary trends. Recent matches involving these teams have shown a tendency for high card counts due to intense midfield battles and defensive pressure, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel as a tempo indicator but emphasizing physicality.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Chapecoense-sc v Internacional prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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