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Sambenedettese crestSambenedettese
v
Atalanta II crestAtalanta II

Serie C - Girone B | Wed 16 Sep, 17:30

Sambenedettese v Atalanta II Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C Girone B fixture sees Atalanta II visit Sambenedettese, with Atalanta II holding a stronger recent record and sitting comfortably higher in the standings. Sambenedettese have struggled to find form, earning just one point and conceding heavily, while Atalanta II have accumulated six points with a more balanced defensive record. The match promises a tactical battle where Atalanta II's more consistent performances and superior league position suggest they will push for victory, though Sambenedettese's home resilience could add some unpredictability.

BT4Y best bet

Atalanta II to Win

  • Atalanta II have a 64.5% to win, indicating strong in an away victory.
  • Sambenedettese have earned only 1 point so far, contrasting with Atalanta II's 6 points.
  • Sambenedettese concede 1.75 goals per game on average, while Atalanta II concede 1.25, showing defensive solidity for the visitors.
  • Recent form shows Sambenedettese involved in higher-scoring games (75% Over 2.5 rate) compared to Atalanta II (50%).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Atalanta II to win with a 64.5% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and league standing. Despite Sambenedettese's tendency for higher-scoring matches, Atalanta II's more balanced defense and better point accumulation provide a solid football basis for expecting an away win. The at 2.7 offer positive value given the implied chance of 37%, making this a compelling selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance64.5%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance37%
Strong positive
Recent PointsAtalanta II 6 vs Sambenedettese 1
Strong positive
Defensive RecordAtalanta II concede fewer goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atalanta II's steadier form and higher league position suggest they have the tactical edge to secure a win. Their ability to maintain a tighter defense compared to Sambenedettese's porous backline supports this outcome. Expect Atalanta II to capitalize on their consistency and control the match tempo to claim victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Atalanta II's disciplined defensive structure and recent point accumulation give them a clear advantage in this fixture, making their win a logical expectation despite the home side's occasional attacking bursts.”

Key Data Signals

Atalanta II to Win evidence

Atalanta II have a 64.5% to win, indicating strong in an away victory.

Sambenedettese have earned only 1 point so far, contrasting with Atalanta II's 6 points.

Sambenedettese concede 1.75 goals per game on average, while Atalanta II concede 1.25, showing defensive solidity for the visitors.

Recent form shows Sambenedettese involved in higher-scoring games (75% Over 2.5 rate) compared to Atalanta II (50%).

What To Watch In The Data

Atalanta II to Win notes

  • Recent trends show Sambenedettese involved in 75% of matches going Over 2.5 goals, indicating open, high-tempo games.
  • Atalanta II's 50% rate suggests more measured matches.
  • This trend suggests a moderate chance of goals but with Atalanta II likely to manage the game's pace effectively.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sambenedettese1
Avg goals scored
Atalanta II1
Sambenedettese1.75
Avg goals conceded
Atalanta II1.25
Sambenedettese75%
BTTS rate
Atalanta II50%
Sambenedettese75%
Over 2.5 goals
Atalanta II50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Sambenedettese's recent matches show a 75% rate of Over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Atalanta II's lower rates suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast suggests a match with potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Atalanta II.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtalanta II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Atalanta II Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The of 2.7 for Atalanta II to win represent strong value compared to the model's 64.5% win probability. This positive indicates the market underestimates Atalanta II's chances, making the bet attractive without current price warnings or sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sambenedettese

LLLD
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026A Pineto1-2
06 Sep 2026H Spezia1-2
29 Aug 2026A Torres0-1
23 Aug 2026H Forli2-2

Atalanta II

WLWL
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Pescara2-1
06 Sep 2026A Livorno0-1
30 Aug 2026H Guidonia Montecelio 19372-1
21 Aug 2026A Vado0-2
Market aligned with main pickAtalanta II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Atalanta II Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Atalanta II's accumulation of six points contrasts sharply with Sambenedettese's single point, reflecting better recent performances. This form difference supports Atalanta II's and momentum heading into the match, increasing their likelihood of securing a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Sambenedettese wins
0Draws
0Atalanta II wins
Market aligned with main pickAtalanta II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
No previous meetings between Sambenedettese and Atalanta II exist to inform this fixture. Therefore, current form and season data provide the primary basis for assessing the match outcome rather than historical head-to-head trends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Atalanta II64202-1
19Sambenedettese14013-3
Atalanta II's 12th place standing with six points places them in a safer mid-table position, while Sambenedettese languish near the bottom at 19th with only one point. This league pressure disparity favors Atalanta II's motivation and tactical stability in the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Sambenedettese Over 2.5
50%Atalanta II Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Sambenedettese involved in 75% of matches going Over 2.5 goals, indicating open, high-tempo games. Atalanta II's 50% rate suggests more measured matches. This trend suggests a moderate chance of goals but with Atalanta II likely to manage the game's pace effectively.

Related football research

Fixture links

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