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RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig
v
FC St. Pauli crestFC St. Pauli

Bundesliga | Sat 09 May, 14:30

RB Leipzig v FC St. Pauli Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 10:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

RB Leipzig face FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga on Sat 09 May, 14:30. RB Leipzig are dominant at home and motivated by Champions League qualification. Five consecutive Bundesliga victories had restored and momentum at exactly the right time. Despite a strong overall record, Leipzig frequently concede due to their aggressive pressing shape.

BT4Y best bet

RB Leipzig Win

  • At 6/4, RB Leipzig Win implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Leipzig frequently score twice or more at home but often concede due to their aggressive pressing style.
  • RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St.
  • RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the RB Leipzig Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • RB Leipzig sit 3 in the table, while FC St. Pauli sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for RB Leipzig Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St. Leipzig frequently score twice or more at home but often concede due to their aggressive pressing style.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 40% implied
Strong positive
RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Leipzig frequently score twice or more at home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: RB Leipzig Win is the preferred angle because leipzig frequently score twice or more at home but often concede due to their aggressive pressing style. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St. They can create moments, but not sustained pressure.

Main risk

They can create moments, but not sustained pressure.

Key Data Signals

RB Leipzig Win evidence

Leipzig frequently score twice or more at home but often concede due to their aggressive pressing style.

RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC St.

RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the RB Leipzig Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

RB Leipzig sit 3 in the table, while FC St. Pauli sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

RB Leipzig Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    RB Leipzig6
    Avg corners for
    FC St. Pauli5.2
    RB Leipzig10
    Avg total corners
    FC St. Pauli11
    RB Leipzig2
    Avg yellow cards
    FC St. Pauli2.2
    RB Leipzig16.8
    Avg shots
    FC St. Pauli10
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 49% · edge +16.5 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 69%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    RB Leipzig2
    Avg goals scored
    FC St. Pauli0.6
    RB Leipzig1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    FC St. Pauli2.2
    RB Leipzig80%
    BTTS rate
    FC St. Pauli60%
    RB Leipzig80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FC St. Pauli40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 56% · edge +20.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 75%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 77% · edge -2.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    RB Leipzig Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    RB Leipzig to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    RB Leipzig

    LWWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 1D 2L
    02 May 2026A Bayer Leverkusen1-4
    24 Apr 2026H Union Berlin3-1
    18 Apr 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt3-1
    11 Apr 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach1-0
    04 Apr 2026A Werder Bremen2-1

    FC St. Pauli

    LLDLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    03 May 2026H FSV Mainz 051-2
    25 Apr 2026A 1. FC Heidenheim0-2
    17 Apr 2026H 1. FC Köln1-1
    11 Apr 2026H Bayern München0-5
    05 Apr 2026A Union Berlin1-1
    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 77% · edge -2.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    RB Leipzig Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3RB Leipzig wins
    2Draws
    3FC St. Pauli wins
    27 Jan 2026FC St. Pauli v RB Leipzig1-1
    09 Feb 2025RB Leipzig v FC St. Pauli2-0
    29 Oct 2024RB Leipzig v FC St. Pauli4-2
    22 Sep 2024FC St. Pauli v RB Leipzig0-0
    12 Feb 2016FC St. Pauli v RB Leipzig1-0
    23 Aug 2015RB Leipzig v FC St. Pauli0-1
    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 77% · edge -2.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for RB Leipzig to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    RB Leipzig34
    Played
    FC St. Pauli34
    RB Leipzig1.9
    Avg goals for
    FC St. Pauli0.9
    RB Leipzig1.4
    Avg goals against
    FC St. Pauli1.8
    RB Leipzig11
    Clean sheets
    FC St. Pauli5
    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 77% · edge -2.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    RB Leipzig Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Season data supports RB Leipzig to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3RB Leipzig6534205919
    18FC St. Pauli26346820-31
    RB Leipzig sit in position 3, while FC St. Pauli sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the RB Leipzig Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%RB Leipzig Over 2.5
    40%FC St. Pauli Over 2.5
    2.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: RB Leipzig sit at 80% and FC St. Pauli sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    RB Leipzig v FC St. Pauli prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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