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Piast Gliwice crestPiast Gliwice

Ekstraklasa | Sat 29 Aug, 13:45

Motor Lublin v Piast Gliwice Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Motor Lublin and Piast Gliwice meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both teams have shown tendencies for open play and goal-scoring opportunities. Motor Lublin ranks 13th with 5 points, while Piast Gliwice sits just below in 14th with 4 points, reflecting a tight competition near the bottom of the table. Both sides have struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 and 2.6 goals per game respectively, suggesting vulnerabilities that could lead to multiple goals. Recent form data highlights a propensity for matches with goals, setting the stage for an entertaining encounter with attacking intent from both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.
  • Motor Lublin concedes 1.6 goals per game while Piast Gliwice concedes 2.6, pointing to defensive frailties.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.25 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich fixture.
  • Both teams take nearly 15 shots per match on average, showing offensive activity.
  • Piast Gliwice’s Leandro Sanca and O. Maziarz are key attacking threats with high shot volumes and goal involvement.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong pick with a 63.5% chance, slightly above the implied market probability, indicating modest value. Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, with Motor Lublin conceding 1.6 and Piast Gliwice 2.6 goals per game. Their combined shot volumes and historical head-to-head average of 3.25 goals per match reinforce the likelihood of multiple goals. The presence of prolific shooters like Leandro Sanca and O. Maziarz further supports an open game with scoring chances. No data limitations affect in this analysis.

Model Chance63.5%
Strong positive
Motor Lublin Goals Against1.6 per game
Positive
Piast Gliwice Goals Against2.6 per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.25 goals
Positive
Shot Volume~15 shots per team per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward given their defensive records and recent scoring trends. Motor Lublin’s slightly better defensive record contrasts with Piast Gliwice’s attacking threats, suggesting a match where goals are likely. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals as a sensible choice given the attacking profiles and historical scoring patterns.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking threats

“The combination of defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent from both sides makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling angle here, especially with key players like Sanca and Maziarz driving Piast Gliwice’s offense.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.

Motor Lublin concedes 1.6 goals per game while Piast Gliwice concedes 2.6, pointing to defensive frailties.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.25 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich fixture.

Both teams take nearly 15 shots per match on average, showing offensive activity.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.25, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters.
  • This recent trend, combined with the teams' current attacking and defensive tendencies, suggests a sustained tempo and openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Motor Lublin1.2
Avg goals scored
Piast Gliwice1.6
Motor Lublin1.6
Avg goals conceded
Piast Gliwice2.6
Motor Lublin80%
BTTS rate
Piast Gliwice60%
Motor Lublin60%
Over 2.5 goals
Piast Gliwice60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates at 60%, with Motor Lublin also showing an 80% BTTS rate and Piast Gliwice 60%. Their defensive records and attacking output create a fertile environment for goals from both sides, supporting expectations for a lively, goal-rich match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Motor Lublin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Motor Lublin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Piast Gliwice to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Piast Gliwice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67 with an implied chance of 59.9%, while the model estimates a 63.5% probability, indicating a small positive . This suggests the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, making the bet a reasonable option without major price sensitivity concerns.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Motor Lublin3.8
Avg corners for
Piast Gliwice5.8
Motor Lublin6.2
Avg total corners
Piast Gliwice11.6
Motor Lublin2.2
Avg yellow cards
Piast Gliwice1.4
Motor Lublin14.8
Avg shots
Piast Gliwice14.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 51% · edge -1.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Piast Gliwice averages 5.8 corners per game compared to Motor Lublin’s 3.8, reflecting more attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities. Both teams take nearly 15 shots per match, with similar shots on target, indicating active offensive play. Discipline-wise, Motor Lublin averages 2.2 yellow cards per game, slightly higher than Piast Gliwice’s 1.4, suggesting a moderately physical contest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Motor Lublin

DWLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
22 Aug 2026A Korona Kielce1-1
16 Aug 2026H GKS Katowice1-0
08 Aug 2026A Pogon Szczecin1-3
31 Jul 2026H Jagiellonia1-2
26 Jul 2026A Widzew Łódź2-2

Piast Gliwice

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
22 Aug 2026H Legia Warszawa1-1
15 Aug 2026H Wieczysta Kraków3-4
09 Aug 2026A Lech Poznan0-3
01 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow4-3
27 Jul 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 71% · edge +5.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Motor Lublin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Motor Lublin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Piast Gliwice to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Piast Gliwice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form data shows both teams have produced matches with multiple goals, with Motor Lublin scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals per game, and Piast Gliwice scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.6. Both sides have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, reinforcing the trend towards open, high-scoring encounters in their recent performances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Motor Lublin wins
1Draws
1Piast Gliwice wins
20 Feb 2026Piast Gliwice v Motor Lublin1-2
16 Aug 2025Motor Lublin v Piast Gliwice0-0
09 May 2025Motor Lublin v Piast Gliwice1-4
08 Nov 2024Piast Gliwice v Motor Lublin2-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Motor Lublin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Piast Gliwice to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The four previous meetings between Motor Lublin and Piast Gliwice have averaged 3.25 goals per game, demonstrating a pattern of open contests with multiple goals. While the sample is limited, this historical data supports expectations for a match featuring several scoring opportunities and goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Motor Lublin5
Played
Piast Gliwice5
Motor Lublin1.2
Avg goals for
Piast Gliwice1.6
Motor Lublin1.6
Avg goals against
Piast Gliwice2.6
Motor Lublin1
Clean sheets
Piast Gliwice0
Best odds for this sectionMotor Lublin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +2.8 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Motor Lublin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Piast Gliwice to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Piast Gliwice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Season-long statistics reveal Motor Lublin and Piast Gliwice have struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 and 2.6 goals per game respectively, while maintaining moderate attacking outputs. Their combined offensive and defensive profiles align with matches that typically exceed 2.5 goals, reflecting a balance tilted towards open play and goal opportunities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Motor Lublin55122-2
14Piast Gliwice45113-5
Both teams occupy the lower end of the Ekstraklasa table, with Motor Lublin 13th and Piast Gliwice 14th, separated by a single point. This proximity in standings suggests a competitive fixture where both sides may prioritize attack to secure vital points, potentially increasing the likelihood of goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Motor Lublin Over 2.5
60%Piast Gliwice Over 2.5
3.25H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.25, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters. This recent trend, combined with the teams' current attacking and defensive tendencies, suggests a sustained tempo and openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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