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Ponte Preta crestPonte Preta
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Sun 06 Sep, 22:30

Ponte Preta v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ponte Preta and São Bernardo meet in a Serie B clash where defensive solidity and recent scoring trends suggest a tight contest. Ponte Preta struggles offensively with just 0.2 goals per game recently, while São Bernardo shows more attacking intent but remains cautious. Ponte Preta's porous defense concedes 2.6 goals per game, yet the overall tempo and shot volumes hint at a match unlikely to produce many goals. Both teams have tactical reasons to avoid open play, making a low-scoring game probable under the current conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Ponte Preta averages only 0.2 goals per game recently, indicating low scoring potential.
  • São Bernardo concedes just 1.2 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates: Ponte Preta 20%, São Bernardo 80% but combined suggests cautious play.
  • Recent matches show Ponte Preta's over 2.5 goals rate at 20%, São Bernardo at 40%, supporting under 2.5 goals.
  • São Bernardo averages 13 shots per game but Ponte Preta limits quality chances, reducing goal likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 57.5% chance, reflecting Ponte Preta's weak attack and São Bernardo's balanced defense. Despite São Bernardo's higher shot volume, Ponte Preta's defensive approach and low scoring form suggest limited goal opportunities. The at 2.25 offer positive value given the implied chance of 44.4%. No data limitations affect , and the model's 72% level supports a standard stake on this low-scoring outcome.

Ponte Preta low scoring0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
São Bernardo defensive solidity1.2 goals conceded per game
Positive
Shot volume disparitySão Bernardo 13 vs Ponte Preta 7.5 shots per game
Neutral
Over 2.5 goals ratePonte Preta 20%, São Bernardo 40%
Positive
Model confidence72%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a cautious game with Ponte Preta's limited attack and São Bernardo's solid defense shaping a low-scoring match. The data supports Under 2.5 Goals as a sensible choice due to Ponte Preta's struggles to create chances and São Bernardo's controlled approach in Serie B.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match scoring dynamics

“Ponte Preta's offensive struggles combined with São Bernardo's disciplined defense make a low-scoring match the most logical outcome here, despite some attacking threat from São Bernardo.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Ponte Preta averages only 0.2 goals per game recently, indicating low scoring potential.

São Bernardo concedes just 1.2 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.

Both teams have low BTTS rates: Ponte Preta 20%, São Bernardo 80% but combined suggests cautious play.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, slightly above the under 2.5 threshold, but recent form and tactical setups indicate a slower tempo and fewer chances, making over 2.5 goals less likely in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ponte Preta4
Avg corners for
São Bernardo6.8
Ponte Preta10.8
Avg total corners
São Bernardo13.4
Ponte Preta2.6
Avg yellow cards
São Bernardo0.8
Ponte Preta8.6
Avg shots
São Bernardo14
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 67% · edge +2.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
São Bernardo dominates corners with an average of 10.5 per game, indicating territorial pressure, but Ponte Preta's defensive fouling and card count suggest a physical match that may disrupt attacking flow and limit clear chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ponte Preta0.2
Avg goals scored
São Bernardo1.2
Ponte Preta2.6
Avg goals conceded
São Bernardo1.2
Ponte Preta20%
BTTS rate
São Bernardo80%
Ponte Preta20%
Over 2.5 goals
São Bernardo40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 47% · edge +11 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Goal trends show Ponte Preta scoring very little recently and São Bernardo maintaining a moderate scoring rate but with a strong defensive record. Both teams' BTTS rates suggest a mix of clean sheets and low-scoring games, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 78% · edge -3.1 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
10
Check odds @ 10
São Bernardo to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 20%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.25, reflecting a positive of 13.1%. The imply a 44.4% chance, well below the model's 57.5% probability, indicating a worthwhile bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ponte Preta

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 8L
30 Aug 2026A America Mineiro0-2
23 Aug 2026H Avai0-2
20 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-6
14 Aug 2026H Nautico Recife1-1
08 Aug 2026A Ceara0-2

São Bernardo

LDDLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
28 Aug 2026A Goias1-2
23 Aug 2026H Nautico Recife1-1
19 Aug 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
14 Aug 2026H Botafogo SP0-1
07 Aug 2026A Operario-PR3-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Ponte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
10
Check odds @ 10
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
São Bernardo to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 20%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form data highlights Ponte Preta's poor scoring (0.2 goals per game) and defensive vulnerability (2.6 goals conceded), while São Bernardo shows better balance with 1.2 goals scored and conceded. This contrast supports a low-scoring, controlled game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Ponte Preta wins
1Draws
4São Bernardo wins
03 May 2026São Bernardo v Ponte Preta3-0
22 Jan 2026Ponte Preta v São Bernardo0-1
12 Jul 2025São Bernardo v Ponte Preta2-0
04 Feb 2024Ponte Preta v São Bernardo3-3
05 Feb 2022São Bernardo v Ponte Preta2-0
Best odds for this sectionPonte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts
10
Check odds @ 10
Load more odds for this section
São Bernardo to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 20%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The five previous encounters average 2.8 goals per game, showing some openness historically. However, recent tactical caution and defensive improvements by both teams reduce the relevance of this trend for predicting a high-scoring match now.
Season team stats

Serie B

Ponte Preta25
Played
São Bernardo25
Ponte Preta0.6
Avg goals for
São Bernardo1.4
Ponte Preta2.1
Avg goals against
São Bernardo1.2
Ponte Preta2
Clean sheets
São Bernardo5
Best odds for this sectionPonte Preta to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts
10
Check odds @ 10
Load more odds for this section
São Bernardo to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Season-long stats confirm Ponte Preta's offensive struggles and defensive frailty, contrasted by São Bernardo's more stable defensive numbers. Both teams' under 2.5 goals rates align with a cautious match approach.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14São Bernardo32258895
20Ponte Preta10252419-36
Ponte Preta sits at the bottom of the table with only 10 points, increasing pressure to avoid defeat but likely limiting attacking risk. São Bernardo's mid-table position with 32 points suggests a more measured approach to secure points without overcommitting.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Ponte Preta Over 2.5
40%São Bernardo Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last five meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, slightly above the under 2.5 threshold, but recent form and tactical setups indicate a slower tempo and fewer chances, making over 2.5 goals less likely in this fixture.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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