Football Stats Hub

Ceara crestCeara
v
Sport Recife crestSport Recife

Serie B | Sat 05 Sep, 22:30

Ceara v Sport Recife Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ceara and Sport Recife meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown contrasting styles in recent matches. Ceara, positioned 17th, have struggled to convert possession into goals but maintain a steady supply of corners through sustained pressure. Sport Recife, sitting 8th, are more efficient offensively and tend to draw fouls and corners with their attacking play. This fixture promises territorial battles and set-piece opportunities, with both teams eager to improve their league standing and momentum in the closing stages of the season.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Ceara averages 5 corners per game, Sport Recife 2.8, combining for over 7.8 corners on average.
  • Model projects a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, with a positive of 14.4%.
  • Both teams show attacking intent, reflected in their shot volumes and fouls won, increasing corner likelihood.
  • Recent form shows Ceara and Sport Recife have different goal and BTTS rates, but both generate set-piece chances.
  • Player stats highlight Aloisio’s high shot and foul-winning rates, indicating frequent attacking involvement and pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors over 9.5 corners due to the combined average corner count from Ceara and Sport Recife, supported by their attacking styles and fouling tendencies. Ceara’s higher corner average and Aloisio’s role in drawing fouls contribute to sustained pressure and set-piece opportunities. The model is strong at 85%, reflecting consistent corner generation patterns without data limitations or price warnings.

Average Corners per GameCeara 5.0 + Sport Recife 2.8 = 7.8 avg
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Implied Chance69% model chance vs 54.6% implied chance
Strong positive
Player Fouls WonAloisio wins 7.83 fouls/90
Positive
Shot VolumeBoth teams average 12 shots per game
Positive
Confidence Level85% model confidence
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained pressure and territorial exchanges leading to numerous corners. Ceara’s tendency to generate set pieces and Sport Recife’s attacking threat suggest a lively contest with frequent corner kicks. The data supports a corner-heavy game, making over 9.5 corners a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“This fixture features two teams that rely on wide play and set-piece creation, making a high corner count very plausible. Ceara’s aggressive wing play combined with Sport Recife’s ability to draw fouls sets the stage for a corner-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Ceara averages 5 corners per game, Sport Recife 2.8, combining for over 7.8 corners on average.

Model projects a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, with a positive of 14.4%.

Both teams show attacking intent, reflected in their shot volumes and fouls won, increasing corner likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily low tempo.
  • This suggests a match tempo that can produce multiple attacking phases and set-piece situations, which often lead to corners.
  • The trend supports a game where over 2.5 goals is less frequent but corner accumulation remains high due to territorial play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ceara1
Avg goals scored
Sport Recife1.6
Ceara1.4
Avg goals conceded
Sport Recife1
Ceara40%
BTTS rate
Sport Recife60%
Ceara40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sport Recife80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
While both teams have modest goal-scoring records, Ceara’s 40% and Sport Recife’s 60% BTTS rates indicate moderate attacking output. The goal trends suggest open play that can generate attacking pressure and set-piece situations, indirectly supporting a higher corner count without guaranteeing high scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSport Recife Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Ceara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The over 9.5 corners market is priced attractively with reflecting a 54.6% implied chance, while the model estimates a 69% probability, indicating a clear value opportunity. This positive suggests the market underestimates the frequency of corners in this matchup, making the bet appealing at current prices.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ceara5
Avg corners for
Sport Recife2.8
Ceara9.4
Avg total corners
Sport Recife11.2
Ceara1.6
Avg yellow cards
Sport Recife1.8
Ceara12
Avg shots
Sport Recife12
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Ceara’s average of 5 corners per game and Sport Recife’s 2.8, combined with both teams averaging 12 shots each, reflect active offensive phases and territorial battles. Aloisio’s high fouls won per 90 minutes further indicate frequent attacking fouls that often result in corners, reinforcing the corner market context.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ceara

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
30 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-2
22 Aug 2026H Londrina2-1
19 Aug 2026A Nautico Recife0-1
15 Aug 2026H Cuiaba1-3
08 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta2-0

Sport Recife

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
29 Aug 2026A Novorizontino1-2
24 Aug 2026H America Mineiro3-0
19 Aug 2026A Avai1-2
15 Aug 2026H Londrina2-1
08 Aug 2026A Vila Nova1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Ceara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form shows Ceara earning 6 points with a 40% over 2.5 goals rate and 40% BTTS, while Sport Recife has 9 points with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS. Despite differing goal outputs, both teams maintain attacking intent and pressure, which correlates with frequent corner opportunities, supporting the over 9.5 corners bet.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Ceara wins
3Draws
5Sport Recife wins
03 May 2026Sport Recife v Ceara2-0
16 Oct 2025Sport Recife v Ceara1-1
10 Jul 2025Sport Recife v Ceara0-0
17 May 2025Ceara v Sport Recife2-0
08 Oct 2024Sport Recife v Ceara2-1
21 Jun 2024Ceara v Sport Recife0-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 10 previous meetings between Ceara and Sport Recife show an average of 1.8 goals per game, indicating competitive but not high-scoring encounters. While goal data is moderate, the matches often feature tactical battles with wing play and fouls that generate corners. This historical pattern weakly supports the corner market by highlighting the likelihood of set-piece situations rather than high goal totals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Ceara26
Played
Sport Recife26
Ceara1
Avg goals for
Sport Recife1.3
Ceara1.3
Avg goals against
Sport Recife1
Ceara5
Clean sheets
Sport Recife9
Best odds for this sectionSport Recife Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Ceara Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ceara to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Season-long data reveals Ceara averages 5 corners per match, reflecting consistent wing play and pressure, while Sport Recife’s 2.8 corners per game complement this to approach the 10-corner threshold. Both teams’ attacking and defensive stats suggest a game with sustained wide attacks and set-piece chances, aligning with the over 9.5 corners market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Sport Recife382691168
16Ceara31268711-6
Ceara’s 17th place with 28 points and Sport Recife’s 8th place with 38 points indicate differing league pressures. Ceara’s need to climb the table may drive aggressive wing play and pressing, increasing corner counts. Sport Recife’s mid-table position allows for controlled attacking strategies that still generate corners, making the corner market relevant to their tactical approaches.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Ceara Over 2.5
80%Sport Recife Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily low tempo. This suggests a match tempo that can produce multiple attacking phases and set-piece situations, which often lead to corners. The trend supports a game where over 2.5 goals is less frequent but corner accumulation remains high due to territorial play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Juventude v Atletico GoianienseSerie B · Sat 05 Sep 22:00Londrina v Operario-PRSerie B · Sun 06 Sep 15:00Ponte Preta v São BernardoSerie B · Sun 06 Sep 22:30

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre