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Londrina crestLondrina
v
Operario-PR crestOperario-PR

Serie B | Sun 06 Sep, 15:00

Londrina v Operario-PR Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Operario-PR visits Londrina in a Serie B clash where the away side holds a clear advantage in the standings and recent form. Operario-PR sits 10th with 37 points, well ahead of 18th-placed Londrina on 22 points, reflecting a stronger season performance. Both teams have struggled for goals recently, but Operario-PR's slightly higher scoring rate and more potent attack suggest they can capitalize on Londrina's defensive vulnerabilities. The match carries significant importance for Londrina to climb out of the relegation zone, while Operario-PR aims to consolidate their mid-table position, setting up a competitive encounter with Operario-PR favored to edge the win.

BT4Y best bet

Operario-PR to Win

  • Operario-PR ranks 10th with 37 points; Londrina is 18th with 22 points.
  • Operario-PR averages 0.6 goals per game, higher than Londrina's 0.4.
  • Operario-PR has a 60% BTTS rate, indicating attacking intent.
  • Operario-PR averages 16.6 shots per game versus Londrina's 13 shots.
  • Operario-PR's of winning is 40.5%, above the implied chance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Operario-PR to win with a 40.5% chance, reflecting their superior league position and attacking metrics. Operario-PR's higher shot volume and better goal-scoring rate underpin this . Londrina's defensive record is weaker, conceding 1 goal per game, which Operario-PR's attack can exploit. The offer positive value with a 10.2% edge, making this a sound selection. No data limitations affect , and the price aligns well with the football read for an away victory.

Model Win Probability40.5%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance30.3%
Positive
Value Edge10.2%
Strong positive
Operario-PR Goals per Game0.6
Positive
Londrina Goals Against per Game1.0
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Operario-PR's stronger league standing and more effective attack make them the logical choice for victory. Their ability to generate more shots and convert chances contrasts with Londrina's defensive struggles, suggesting Operario-PR can secure a valuable away win in this crucial Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Operario-PR's consistent attacking threat and higher league position give them a tactical and statistical edge, making them the favored side to claim three points on the road.”

Key Data Signals

Operario-PR to Win evidence

Operario-PR ranks 10th with 37 points; Londrina is 18th with 22 points.

Operario-PR averages 0.6 goals per game, higher than Londrina's 0.4.

Operario-PR has a 60% BTTS rate, indicating attacking intent.

Operario-PR averages 16.6 shots per game versus Londrina's 13 shots.

What To Watch In The Data

Operario-PR to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.6, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting that while goals are not guaranteed, the tempo and attacking intent could produce a moderately open game with goal opportunities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Londrina4.8
Avg corners for
Operario-PR4.75
Londrina8.8
Avg total corners
Operario-PR10
Londrina1.6
Avg yellow cards
Operario-PR1.75
Londrina13.4
Avg shots
Operario-PR15.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 65% · edge -4.7 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Operario-PR averages more shots (16.6) and corners (5.6) than Londrina, indicating greater attacking pressure and territorial advantage. Both teams have similar yellow card averages around 1.75-1.8, suggesting a balanced fouling profile without excessive discipline issues that could disrupt play.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina0.4
Avg goals scored
Operario-PR0.6
Londrina1
Avg goals conceded
Operario-PR1.4
Londrina40%
BTTS rate
Operario-PR60%
Londrina40%
Over 2.5 goals
Operario-PR40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 61% · edge -0.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, with Operario-PR at 60% and Londrina at 40%. The average goals per game in their recent matches and head-to-head is low at 1.6, suggesting a cautious game with limited scoring. However, Operario-PR's higher goal output hints at potential for goals, especially given Londrina's defensive concessions.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 32% · edge +8.2 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Operario-PR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The for Operario-PR to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model estimating a 40.5% chance against an implied 30.3%. This gap indicates the market underestimates Operario-PR's chances, supported by their superior form and attacking metrics, making the price attractive for bettors.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
01 Sep 2026H Juventude0-0
22 Aug 2026A Ceara1-2
18 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-0
15 Aug 2026A Sport Recife1-2
10 Aug 2026A Goias0-1

Operario-PR

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
31 Aug 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
23 Aug 2026H Vila Nova0-0
20 Aug 2026A Cuiaba0-1
16 Aug 2026H Avai1-2
07 Aug 2026H São Bernardo1-3
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 32% · edge +8.2 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Operario-PR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent form shows both teams earning 2 points in their last matches, but Operario-PR's overall season points and goal metrics are superior. Their slightly better scoring rate and higher shot accuracy suggest they are more likely to convert chances and secure a win compared to Londrina's struggles.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Londrina wins
3Draws
3Operario-PR wins
03 May 2026Operario-PR v Londrina3-0
18 Mar 2026Londrina v Operario-PR0-1
07 Mar 2026Londrina v Operario-PR0-0
28 Feb 2026Operario-PR v Londrina0-0
07 Jan 2026Londrina v Operario-PR2-0
18 Mar 2025Londrina v Operario-PR1-2
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 32% · edge +8.2 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows a low average of 1.6 goals per game, reflecting tight contests historically. This trend suggests defenses have often controlled the game, meaning Operario-PR's attacking advantage must be efficiently executed to break this pattern and secure a win.
Season team stats

Serie B

Londrina25
Played
Operario-PR25
Londrina1.2
Avg goals for
Operario-PR1.2
Londrina1.4
Avg goals against
Operario-PR1.3
Londrina6
Clean sheets
Operario-PR9
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 32% · edge +8.2 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Operario-PR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Operario-PR's season stats reveal a more productive attack and a less effective defense from Londrina. The away side's ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Londrina's lower goal-scoring rate and higher goals conceded, reinforcing Operario-PR's edge in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Operario-PR37251078-1
18Londrina22255713-7
The league table positions highlight Operario-PR's mid-table security versus Londrina's relegation battle. This gap creates pressure on Londrina to perform but also underscores Operario-PR's and consistency, making them favorites to claim three points away from home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Londrina Over 2.5
40%Operario-PR Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.6, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting that while goals are not guaranteed, the tempo and attacking intent could produce a moderately open game with goal opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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