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Perugia crestPerugia
v
Spezia crestSpezia

Serie C - Girone B | Wed 16 Sep, 20:00

Perugia v Spezia Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spezia arrives at this Serie C - Girone B fixture in strong form, leading the table with 10 points from recent matches, while Perugia sits in eighth with 7 points. Spezia's defensive solidity is notable, conceding only 0.5 goals per game compared to Perugia's 1.5, suggesting a tactical edge in defensive organization. Offensively, Spezia averages 1.5 goals per game, slightly higher than Perugia's 1.25, indicating a more effective attack. This match presents a clear challenge for Perugia, who must overcome Spezia's balanced and confident play to secure points at home.

BT4Y best bet

Spezia to Win

  • Spezia leads the league with 10 points, showing consistent winning form.
  • Spezia concedes just 0.5 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Perugia has a higher goals conceded rate at 1.5 per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Spezia averages 1.5 goals scored per match, slightly outpacing Perugia's 1.25.
  • Historical matches average 2.88 goals, suggesting potential for decisive outcomes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Spezia to win based on their superior recent form and defensive record, conceding only 0.5 goals per game compared to Perugia's 1.5. Spezia's position atop the standings and higher points tally reinforce their likelihood of success. The at 2.3 offer positive value given the model's 60.5% win probability. The data quality is solid, with no significant limitations, supporting in this selection.

Recent FormSpezia leads with 10 points vs Perugia's 7
Strong positive
Defensive RecordSpezia concedes 0.5 goals per game vs 1.5 for Perugia
Strong positive
Model Win Probability60.5% chance for Spezia
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge17% positive value at 2.3 odds
Strong positive
Data QualityNo limitations for either team
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Spezia's strong defensive record and top-table position make them the tactical and statistical favorite to claim victory. Their ability to limit goals against and maintain consistent form provides a solid foundation to overcome Perugia, who face challenges in containing Spezia's attack and securing points at home.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Spezia's disciplined defense and efficient attack create a compelling case for their win here, especially given their current league leadership and Perugia's defensive struggles.”

Key Data Signals

Spezia to Win evidence

Spezia leads the league with 10 points, showing consistent winning form.

Spezia concedes just 0.5 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength.

Perugia has a higher goals conceded rate at 1.5 per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Spezia averages 1.5 goals scored per match, slightly outpacing Perugia's 1.25.

What To Watch In The Data

Spezia to Win notes

  • Recent trends show that Over 2.5 goals occur in 75% of Perugia's matches but only 25% of Spezia's, suggesting Perugia's games are more open.
  • The head-to-head average of 2.88 goals indicates a moderately high-scoring fixture, but Spezia's defensive strength may limit total goals, making an Over 2.5 goals bet less certain in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Perugia1.25
Avg goals scored
Spezia1.5
Perugia1.5
Avg goals conceded
Spezia0.5
Perugia50%
BTTS rate
Spezia50%
Perugia75%
Over 2.5 goals
Spezia25%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The average goals per match in head-to-head encounters is 2.88, indicating a moderately open game with scoring opportunities. Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, but Spezia's stronger defense suggests a lower likelihood of conceding, which could limit BTTS outcomes and favor a Spezia win with fewer goals conceded.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Spezia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The current of 2.3 for Spezia to win reflect a positive value opportunity, as the model estimates a 60.5% chance of victory. This discrepancy between implied and model probability suggests the market may be underestimating Spezia's chances, making this a price-sensitive selection worth considering.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Perugia

LWDW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
13 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-3
06 Sep 2026H Pineto2-1
30 Aug 2026A Vis Pesaro2-2
23 Aug 2026H Ostia Mare1-0

Spezia

WWWD
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
12 Sep 2026H Livorno2-0
06 Sep 2026A Sambenedettese2-1
29 Aug 2026H Campobasso FC1-0
23 Aug 2026A Grosseto1-1
Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Spezia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Spezia's recent form is superior, accumulating 10 points compared to Perugia's 7, reflecting greater consistency and effectiveness. Spezia's defensive record of conceding only 0.5 goals per game contrasts with Perugia's 1.5, highlighting a defensive edge that supports their chances of securing a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Perugia wins
4Draws
3Spezia wins
08 Feb 2020Perugia v Spezia0-3
21 Sep 2019Spezia v Perugia2-2
27 Apr 2019Spezia v Perugia1-1
15 Dec 2018Perugia v Spezia1-1
17 Mar 2018Perugia v Spezia3-0
21 Oct 2017Spezia v Perugia4-2
Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The eight previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.88 goals per game, indicating a history of moderately open contests. While this supports the potential for goals, Spezia's current defensive form suggests they may restrict Perugia's scoring chances, making the head-to-head data a useful but not definitive guide for this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone B

Perugia4
Played
Spezia4
Perugia1.3
Avg goals for
Spezia1.5
Perugia1.5
Avg goals against
Spezia0.5
Perugia1
Clean sheets
Spezia2
Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Spezia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over the season, Spezia's balance of scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding only 0.5 demonstrates a strong all-around performance. Perugia's higher goals conceded rate and slightly lower scoring average suggest vulnerabilities that Spezia can exploit, reinforcing the likelihood of a Spezia victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Spezia1043104
8Perugia74211-1
Spezia's position at the top of the Serie C - Girone B standings with 10 points underscores their status as title contenders and form leaders. Perugia's mid-table placement with 7 points indicates a gap in performance levels, adding pressure on Perugia to upset the against the league leaders.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Perugia Over 2.5
25%Spezia Over 2.5
2.88H2H avg goals
Recent trends show that Over 2.5 goals occur in 75% of Perugia's matches but only 25% of Spezia's, suggesting Perugia's games are more open. The head-to-head average of 2.88 goals indicates a moderately high-scoring fixture, but Spezia's defensive strength may limit total goals, making an Over 2.5 goals bet less certain in this match.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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