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Padova crestPadova
v
Ascoli crestAscoli

Serie B | Sat 12 Sep, 14:00

Padova v Ascoli Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Padova and Ascoli face off in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown a tendency to concede and score in recent matches. Padova, currently mid-table, have struggled defensively but managed to secure points through open play, while Ascoli, positioned higher in the standings, combine a more potent attack with a relatively solid defense. Both sides have averaged over 1 goal conceded per game, setting the stage for an open encounter with attacking intent from both teams. Tactical setups suggest a contest where offensive opportunities will arise for each side, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Padova and Ascoli both have a 67% BTTS rate this season.
  • Ascoli averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes only 0.67 per game.
  • Padova concedes 1.33 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Both teams have recorded an average of 4.33 and 7 corners respectively, showing attacking pressure.
  • Recent head-to-head matches averaged 4 goals, supporting an open game scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by Padova's defensive frailties and Ascoli's attacking efficiency. Both teams have a 67% BTTS rate this season, reflecting consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns. Ascoli's attackers, including M. Gori, contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat, while Padova's defense has allowed over a goal per game. This combination creates a favorable environment for goals at both ends. The pricing at 1.91 offers positive value given the model's and the match dynamics.

Model BTTS Probability76%
Strong positive
Padova BTTS Rate67%
Positive
Ascoli BTTS Rate67%
Positive
Ascoli Goals For per Game1.33
Positive
Padova Goals Against per Game1.33
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to both score and concede, making the Both Teams to Score market a logical choice. Ascoli's attacking players like M. Gori provide consistent offensive threats, while Padova's defensive record suggests vulnerability. This tactical and statistical combination supports the expectation of goals at both ends in this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The attacking profiles of Ascoli combined with Padova's defensive openness create a compelling case for both sides to find the net. This match promises offensive opportunities on both flanks, making BTTS a strong tactical and statistical angle.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Padova and Ascoli both have a 67% BTTS rate this season.

Ascoli averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes only 0.67 per game.

Padova concedes 1.33 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Both teams have recorded an average of 4.33 and 7 corners respectively, showing attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, an average of 4 goals were scored, indicating a high-scoring trend between these teams.
  • Both Padova and Ascoli have a 33% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting moderate goal totals.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides in recent games support the possibility of an open match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Padova1
Avg goals scored
Ascoli1.33
Padova1.33
Avg goals conceded
Ascoli0.67
Padova67%
BTTS rate
Ascoli67%
Padova33%
Over 2.5 goals
Ascoli33%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both Padova and Ascoli have a 67% BTTS rate this season, with recent matches showing an average of 4 goals in their head-to-head meetings. Padova concedes 1.33 goals per game while scoring 1, and Ascoli scores 1.33 while conceding 0.67, highlighting a balance of attacking threat and defensive vulnerability that supports goals from both sides.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Padova

LDW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Cremonese1-3
29 Aug 2026H Hellas Verona1-1
23 Aug 2026A Pisa1-0

Ascoli

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
05 Sep 2026H Benevento1-0
29 Aug 2026H Carrarese1-1
23 Aug 2026A Hellas Verona2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Ascoli to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Padova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Padova to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form shows Padova with 4 points and Ascoli with 7 from their last matches, with both teams scoring and conceding goals. Padova's goal output is modest at 1 per game, but their defensive concessions at 1.33 goals per match indicate openness. Ascoli's better form and slightly stronger defense complement their attacking output, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Ascoli732102
11Padova43111-1
Padova sits 11th with 4 points, while Ascoli ranks 4th with 7 points in Serie B. Although the standings show Ascoli in better form, both teams have incentives to attack and secure points. The mid-table position of Padova suggests a need to push forward, while Ascoli's higher rank encourages maintaining offensive momentum, both factors increasing the chance of goals from each side.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Ascoli to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Padova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Padova to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.91, reflecting an implied chance of 52.4%, which is significantly lower than the model's 76% probability. This positive of 23.6% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of goals at both ends, making this a price-sensitive and attractive betting angle.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Padova4.33
Avg corners for
Ascoli7
Padova8.67
Avg total corners
Ascoli13.33
Padova2
Avg yellow cards
Ascoli3
Padova10
Avg shots
Ascoli14
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 55% · edge +11.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ascoli averages 7 corners per match compared to Padova's 4.33, indicating sustained attacking pressure from Ascoli. Both teams generate a healthy volume of shots, with Ascoli averaging 14 shots and Padova 10 per game, including 4.33 and 3.67 shots on target respectively. Discipline-wise, Ascoli concedes more yellows, reflecting a competitive and physical contest likely to produce set-piece opportunities and shots on goal.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Padova wins
0Draws
1Ascoli wins
02 Apr 2019Padova v Ascoli1-2
10 Nov 2018Ascoli v Padova2-3
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Padova to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The two recent meetings between Padova and Ascoli have produced an average of 4 goals per game, highlighting a history of open and attacking encounters. This limited sample suggests a trend toward offensive play when these teams meet, although tactical changes could influence this pattern. The head-to-head data moderately supports the expectation of goals from both sides in the upcoming fixture.
Season team stats

Serie B

Padova3
Played
Ascoli3
Padova1
Avg goals for
Ascoli1.3
Padova1.3
Avg goals against
Ascoli0.7
Padova1
Clean sheets
Ascoli1
Best odds for this sectionAscoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 57% · edge +10.8 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Padova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Padova to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season-long statistics reveal Padova concedes an average of 1.33 goals per game while scoring 1, reflecting defensive challenges and moderate attacking output. Ascoli boasts a stronger attack with 1.33 goals scored per game and a tighter defense conceding only 0.67 goals, creating a dynamic where both teams have the capacity to score and concede, supporting the Both Teams to Score market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Padova Over 2.5
33%Ascoli Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, an average of 4 goals were scored, indicating a high-scoring trend between these teams. Both Padova and Ascoli have a 33% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting moderate goal totals. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides in recent games support the possibility of an open match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities.

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