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Pisa crestPisa
v
Virtus Entella crestVirtus Entella

Serie B | Fri 11 Sep, 20:00

Pisa v Virtus Entella Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pisa hosts Virtus Entella in a Serie B clash where the home side’s strong start contrasts with Entella's struggles. Pisa has collected six points from their opening matches, showing solid defensive organization and effective attacking transitions. Virtus Entella, with just one point, face an uphill battle to contain Pisa’s dynamic midfield and forward lines. The fixture offers a tactical battle with Pisa expected to leverage home advantage and recent momentum to press for a win, while Entella will need to tighten defensively and seek counter-attacking opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Pisa to Win

  • Pisa has won 74% to win, with strong recent form and home advantage.
  • Virtus Entella has scored fewer goals and conceded more, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Pisa averages 17.67 shots per game with 7.67 on target, showing attacking pressure.
  • Virtus Entella’s recent form yields only 1 point and a negative goal difference.
  • Head-to-head average goals are moderate at 2.2, suggesting controlled scoring opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Pisa to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, stronger attack, and defensive solidity compared to Virtus Entella. Pisa’s higher shot volume and better defensive record underpin this . The price offers positive value with a 16.9% edge, indicating the market underestimates Pisa’s likelihood of victory. No data limitations affect this assessment, making Pisa a clear choice based on current season dynamics and team performance metrics.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Market16.9%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsPisa 6, Virtus Entella 1
Strong positive
Shots on Target per GamePisa 7.67, Virtus Entella 3.67
Strong positive
Defensive Record (Goals Against)Pisa 0.67, Virtus Entella 1.67
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pisa’s early season form and attacking control make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their ability to generate shots and maintain defensive discipline contrasts sharply with Virtus Entella’s struggles, suggesting Pisa’s tactical approach and momentum will be decisive in this contest.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Pisa’s combination of offensive pressure and defensive resilience positions them strongly to capitalize on Virtus Entella’s vulnerabilities, making a home win the most logical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Pisa to Win evidence

Pisa has won 74% to win, with strong recent form and home advantage.

Virtus Entella has scored fewer goals and conceded more, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Pisa averages 17.67 shots per game with 7.67 on target, showing attacking pressure.

Virtus Entella’s recent form yields only 1 point and a negative goal difference.

What To Watch In The Data

Pisa to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2, suggesting moderately paced games with selective scoring.
  • Both teams have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating potential for goal opportunities but balanced by defensive considerations in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Pisa4.33
Avg corners for
Virtus Entella5
Pisa10.33
Avg total corners
Virtus Entella7.33
Pisa2
Avg yellow cards
Virtus Entella1.67
Pisa17.67
Avg shots
Virtus Entella14.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 51% · edge -2.8 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Pisa’s higher average shots and shots on target indicate territorial control and sustained pressure, while Virtus Entella’s corner count is slightly higher but less effective. Card averages are balanced, suggesting a disciplined contest with few disruptions affecting flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pisa1.67
Avg goals scored
Virtus Entella1
Pisa0.67
Avg goals conceded
Virtus Entella1.67
Pisa33%
BTTS rate
Virtus Entella67%
Pisa67%
Over 2.5 goals
Virtus Entella67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Both teams to score appears unlikely given Pisa’s solid defensive record conceding only 0.67 goals per game, contrasted with Virtus Entella’s defensive frailties. The goal environment suggests controlled scoring with Pisa likely to keep a clean sheet or limit Entella’s chances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Pisa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
The for Pisa to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model’s 74% win probability exceeding the implied market chance of 57.1%. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates Pisa’s strength, making the current price attractive for bettors seeking a home victory.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pisa

WWL
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Juve Stabia3-0
30 Aug 2026H Catanzaro2-1
23 Aug 2026H Padova0-1

Virtus Entella

DLL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
06 Sep 2026H Vicenza Virtus2-2
29 Aug 2026H Cesena1-2
22 Aug 2026A Sudtirol0-1
Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Pisa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Pisa’s accumulation of six points and positive goal difference contrasts with Virtus Entella’s single point and defensive struggles. This form disparity reflects Pisa’s ability to control matches and convert chances, reinforcing in a home win outcome.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Pisa wins
4Draws
4Virtus Entella wins
30 Jul 2022Pisa v Virtus Entella2-0
10 May 2021Pisa v Virtus Entella3-2
22 Jan 2021Virtus Entella v Pisa2-1
27 Oct 2020Virtus Entella v Pisa3-1
13 Jul 2020Virtus Entella v Pisa1-1
08 Dec 2019Pisa v Virtus Entella0-2
Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows a moderate average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating neither side dominates scoring heavily. This history suggests a balanced contest but with Pisa’s current form and home advantage likely tipping the scales in their favor.
Season team stats

Serie B

Pisa3
Played
Virtus Entella3
Pisa1.7
Avg goals for
Virtus Entella1
Pisa0.7
Avg goals against
Virtus Entella1.7
Pisa1
Clean sheets
Virtus Entella0
Market aligned with main pickPisa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Pisa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Pisa’s season statistics show a strong attack averaging 1.67 goals per game and a tight defense conceding 0.67, underpinning their winning chances. Virtus Entella’s inverse pattern with fewer goals scored and more conceded highlights their vulnerability in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Pisa632013
15Virtus Entella13012-2
Pisa’s position near the top of the Serie B table with six points reflects early season momentum and consistency, whereas Virtus Entella’s lower ranking and single point indicate pressure and the need for improvement. The standings context supports Pisa’s favored status but also signals the importance of maintaining form.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Pisa Over 2.5
67%Virtus Entella Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2, suggesting moderately paced games with selective scoring. Both teams have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating potential for goal opportunities but balanced by defensive considerations in this fixture.

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