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Benevento crestBenevento
v
Hellas Verona crestHellas Verona

Serie B | Fri 11 Sep, 20:00

Benevento v Hellas Verona Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benevento hosts Hellas Verona in a Serie B clash where Verona arrives with stronger momentum, sitting 10th with 4 points compared to Benevento's 17th place and 1 point. Verona's attack has been more potent, averaging 2.33 goals per game, while Benevento has struggled to score consistently. Verona's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and creative midfield play, which could exploit Benevento's defensive vulnerabilities. The match carries importance for both sides aiming to climb the table, with Verona looking to extend their unbeaten run and Benevento desperate to secure a first win.

BT4Y best bet

Hellas Verona to Win

  • Hellas Verona has a 67.8% to win, showing strong value at 2.5 .
  • Verona averages 2.33 goals per game, significantly higher than Benevento's 0.67.
  • Benevento concedes 1.33 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty Verona can exploit.
  • Verona's top attackers, Cerbone and Iannoni, show high shot and goal threat metrics.
  • Recent form favors Verona with 4 points from matches versus Benevento's single point.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Hellas Verona to win due to their superior recent form, attacking efficiency, and defensive stability compared to Benevento. Verona's higher average goals scored and lower goals conceded per game highlight a balanced team capable of controlling matches. Player-level data shows key contributors like Cerbone and Iannoni with strong shooting and goal involvement, reinforcing the team's offensive threat. Benevento's struggles in scoring and conceding more goals increase the likelihood of a Verona victory. The current offer positive value with a 27.8% edge, making this a compelling selection.

Model Win Probability67.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance40%
Strong positive
Goal Scoring Comparison2.33 vs 0.67 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive Concession1.0 vs 1.33 goals against per game
Positive
Key Player ImpactCerbone and Iannoni high shots and goals
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hellas Verona's superior attacking output and recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with Benevento's defensive vulnerabilities, suggests Verona can control the match and earn three points. This pick aligns with tactical and statistical evidence pointing to Verona's edge in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Hellas Verona's blend of creative midfield play and clinical finishing positions them well to capitalize on Benevento's defensive lapses, making a Verona win the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Hellas Verona to Win evidence

Hellas Verona has a 67.8% to win, showing strong value at 2.5 .

Verona averages 2.33 goals per game, significantly higher than Benevento's 0.67.

Benevento concedes 1.33 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty Verona can exploit.

Verona's top attackers, Cerbone and Iannoni, show high shot and goal threat metrics.

What To Watch In The Data

Hellas Verona to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating a moderately open game historically.
  • Verona's recent matches have a 67% rate of Over 2.5 goals, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring games involving them.
  • This trend supports expectations for a lively match with multiple goals, particularly favoring Verona's offensive capabilities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Benevento8
Avg corners for
Hellas Verona5.5
Benevento12
Avg total corners
Hellas Verona7.5
Benevento2.33
Avg yellow cards
Hellas Verona2
Benevento14.67
Avg shots
Hellas Verona20
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Benevento averages more corners (8) than Verona (5.67), indicating they may press or attack from wide areas despite scoring struggles. Verona's higher average shots (18) and shots on target (6.33) reflect sustained offensive pressure. Card data shows Benevento with slightly higher yellow card averages, hinting at a potentially physical contest with fouls and set-piece chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benevento0.67
Avg goals scored
Hellas Verona2.33
Benevento1.33
Avg goals conceded
Hellas Verona1
Benevento67%
BTTS rate
Hellas Verona67%
Benevento33%
Over 2.5 goals
Hellas Verona67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have a 67% BTTS rate, but Verona's higher average goals per game (2.33) versus Benevento's lower scoring (0.67) suggest a game where Verona is likely to score multiple times. Benevento's defensive record also supports the likelihood of goals for Verona, making goals and BTTS plausible in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHellas Verona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Hellas Verona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The of 2.5 for Hellas Verona to win represent a positive value opportunity given the model's 67.8% win probability. This significant gap between implied and model chances indicates the market underestimates Verona's chances, making the selection attractive at current prices.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benevento

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
05 Sep 2026A Ascoli0-1
30 Aug 2026H Sudtirol1-1
22 Aug 2026H Modena1-2

Hellas Verona

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
06 Sep 2026H Arezzo5-0
29 Aug 2026A Padova1-1
23 Aug 2026H Ascoli1-2
Market aligned with main pickHellas Verona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Hellas Verona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data favors Hellas Verona, who have collected 4 points and scored 2.33 goals per game compared to Benevento's single point and 0.67 goals. Verona's ability to maintain a stronger goal difference and consistent scoring underlines their momentum heading into this match, increasing their likelihood of victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Benevento wins
1Draws
4Hellas Verona wins
03 Mar 2021Benevento v Hellas Verona0-3
02 Nov 2020Hellas Verona v Benevento3-1
22 Apr 2019Hellas Verona v Benevento0-3
09 Dec 2018Benevento v Hellas Verona0-1
04 Apr 2018Benevento v Hellas Verona3-0
16 Oct 2017Hellas Verona v Benevento1-0
Market aligned with main pickHellas Verona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The eight previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.63 goals per game, showing a history of moderately high-scoring encounters. While the sample is limited, it suggests that matches between Benevento and Hellas Verona tend to produce goals, which aligns with Verona's current attacking form and Benevento's defensive challenges.
Season team stats

Serie B

Benevento3
Played
Hellas Verona3
Benevento0.7
Avg goals for
Hellas Verona2.3
Benevento1.3
Avg goals against
Hellas Verona1
Benevento0
Clean sheets
Hellas Verona1
Market aligned with main pickHellas Verona to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Hellas Verona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season-long statistics show Hellas Verona with a more potent attack and tighter defense than Benevento. Verona's average goals scored (2.33) and conceded (1.0) contrast with Benevento's 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, highlighting Verona's balanced team performance and greater efficiency in both phases of play.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Hellas Verona431114
17Benevento13012-2
Hellas Verona sits comfortably in 10th place with 4 points, while Benevento languishes near the relegation zone at 17th with just 1 point. This standing reflects Verona's better start and less pressure, allowing them to play with more and control, which supports their chances of winning this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Benevento Over 2.5
67%Hellas Verona Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating a moderately open game historically. Verona's recent matches have a 67% rate of Over 2.5 goals, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring games involving them. This trend supports expectations for a lively match with multiple goals, particularly favoring Verona's offensive capabilities.

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