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Empoli crestEmpoli
v
Arezzo crestArezzo

Serie B | Fri 11 Sep, 18:00

Empoli v Arezzo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Empoli and Arezzo meet in a Serie B clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Empoli, positioned 7th with 6 points, have shown moderate goal output but a relatively solid defense, conceding just once recently. Arezzo, 14th with 3 points, have struggled defensively, allowing 3 goals per game on average, but maintain a high scoring rate. Both teams' recent matches suggest an open game with chances at both ends, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter under Friday evening lights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Empoli concede only 1 goal per game but have a low Over 2.5 rate of 33%.
  • Arezzo concedes 3 goals per game and has a 100% Over 2.5 rate this season.
  • Both teams average around 11 shots per game, indicating offensive activity.
  • Bandinelli generate high shot volumes and shots on target.
  • Cianci is a key goal threat with 2 goals and 0.91 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals at 66.5% probability, well above the implied 45.5% from current , indicating strong value. Arezzo's defensive frailties combined with Empoli's attacking players like Popov and Bandinelli, who produce significant shot volume, create a fertile environment for goals. Arezzo's perfect Over 2.5 record this season further supports the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The balance of Empoli's solid defense against Arezzo's attack suggests a match where goals are probable from both sides.

Model Probability66.5% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Arezzo Defensive Record3 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Empoli Offensive Shots10.67 shots per game
Positive
Arezzo Over 2.5 Rate100% this season
Strong positive
Empoli BTTS Rate33%, indicating some defensive solidity
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with both teams pushing forward given Arezzo's defensive struggles and Empoli's attacking capabilities. Empoli's higher league standing and home advantage may balance Arezzo's scoring threat, but the defensive gaps on both sides make Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice supported by recent form and player activity.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive vulnerabilities

“Arezzo's porous defense combined with Empoli's active attackers like Popov and Bandinelli sets the stage for a goal-rich encounter. The statistical signals and recent scoring trends strongly favor Over 2.5 Goals in this Serie B fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Empoli concede only 1 goal per game but have a low Over 2.5 rate of 33%.

Arezzo concedes 3 goals per game and has a 100% Over 2.5 rate this season.

Both teams average around 11 shots per game, indicating offensive activity.

Bandinelli generate high shot volumes and shots on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the current season, Arezzo's matches have consistently exceeded 2.5 goals, while Empoli's games have done so only a third of the time.
  • The contrast suggests a match likely influenced by Arezzo's attacking openness and Empoli's moderate offensive threat, creating a trend environment favoring Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Empoli1
Avg goals scored
Arezzo1.33
Empoli1
Avg goals conceded
Arezzo3
Empoli33%
BTTS rate
Arezzo67%
Empoli33%
Over 2.5 goals
Arezzo100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Both teams have shown tendencies toward goal-heavy matches. Arezzo's perfect Over 2.5 record and Empoli's moderate scoring output suggest goals will come from both sides. However, Empoli's lower BTTS rate of 33% indicates some defensive resilience, hinting that while goals are likely, the scoring may be uneven.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Arezzo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.2 with an implied chance of 45.5%, while the model estimates a 66.5% probability, indicating clear value. This discrepancy highlights a market underestimation of the attacking potential and defensive weaknesses, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Empoli5
Avg corners for
Arezzo3.67
Empoli8
Avg total corners
Arezzo8.33
Empoli3
Avg yellow cards
Arezzo1.33
Empoli10.67
Avg shots
Arezzo11.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 50% · edge -4.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Empoli averages 5 corners per game and Arezzo 3.67, reflecting decent attacking pressure and territorial advantage for Empoli. Both teams generate around 11 shots per game with 3 on target, indicating sustained offensive efforts. Card-wise, Empoli averages 3 yellows per game, suggesting a competitive but disciplined match environment.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Empoli

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0
30 Aug 2026A Mantova1-3
22 Aug 2026H Cremonese1-0

Arezzo

LLW
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
06 Sep 2026A Hellas Verona0-5
30 Aug 2026H Palermo2-3
22 Aug 2026A Avellino2-1
Best odds for this sectionEmpoli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Arezzo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows Empoli with 6 points and a modest goal output of 1 per game, while Arezzo has 3 points but concedes heavily at 3 goals per game. Arezzo's 100% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Empoli's 33%, suggesting Arezzo's matches are consistently high scoring, which may influence this fixture's tempo and goal likelihood.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Empoli wins
0Draws
0Arezzo wins
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
No previous head-to-head meetings exist between Empoli and Arezzo, so historical data offers no direct insight. This absence places greater emphasis on current form, player quality, and tactical tendencies to assess the likely goal-scoring pattern in this encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Empoli3
Played
Arezzo3
Empoli1
Avg goals for
Arezzo1.3
Empoli1
Avg goals against
Arezzo3
Empoli2
Clean sheets
Arezzo0
Best odds for this sectionEmpoli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Arezzo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Season-long statistics reveal Arezzo's defensive vulnerabilities with 3 goals conceded per game and a perfect Over 2.5 record, while Empoli maintains a stronger defense conceding only 1 goal per game but with lower Over 2.5 frequency. Empoli's balanced attack and defense contrast with Arezzo's open, high-scoring matches, supporting the expectation of multiple goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Empoli632010
14Arezzo33102-5
Empoli's 7th place with 6 points reflects solid early-season form and relative stability, while Arezzo's 14th place and 3 points indicate struggles, especially defensively. The standings suggest Empoli may control possession and tempo, but Arezzo's need for points could lead to an open game with goal-scoring opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Empoli Over 2.5
100%Arezzo Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the current season, Arezzo's matches have consistently exceeded 2.5 goals, while Empoli's games have done so only a third of the time. The contrast suggests a match likely influenced by Arezzo's attacking openness and Empoli's moderate offensive threat, creating a trend environment favoring Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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Fixture links

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