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Once Caldas crestOnce Caldas
v
Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima

Primera A | Thu 17 Sep, 00:15

Once Caldas v Deportes Tolima Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 00:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Once Caldas face Deportes Tolima in Primera A on Thu 17 Sep, 00:15. Once Caldas come in with 5 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Deportes Tolima have 10 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • At 1.73, Both Teams to Score implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 73%.
  • Once Caldas show a 80% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Once Caldas average 1 goals scored and Deportes Tolima average 1.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 73% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Once Caldas show a 80% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Model chance vs price73% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Strong positive
Once Caldas show a 80% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima.Visible data support
Positive
Once Caldas average 1 goals scored and Deportes Tolima average.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Once Caldas show a 80% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Once Caldas show a 80% BTTS rate and Deportes Tolima show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Once Caldas average 1 goals scored and Deportes Tolima average 1.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting Both Teams To Score.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Once Caldas5
Avg corners for
Deportes Tolima6.25
Once Caldas7
Avg total corners
Deportes Tolima10
Once Caldas2.6
Avg yellow cards
Deportes Tolima3
Once Caldas18.8
Avg shots
Deportes Tolima12.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Once Caldas1
Avg goals scored
Deportes Tolima1.2
Once Caldas1.4
Avg goals conceded
Deportes Tolima0.8
Once Caldas80%
BTTS rate
Deportes Tolima60%
Once Caldas40%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportes Tolima60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Deportes Tolima to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Once Caldas

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
14 Sep 2026H Deportivo Cali1-2
05 Sep 2026A Chico0-2
02 Sep 2026A Fortaleza FC2-1
24 Aug 2026A Junior1-1
10 Aug 2026A Jaguares1-1

Deportes Tolima

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
12 Sep 2026A Santa Fe0-1
08 Sep 2026A Llaneros2-1
01 Sep 2026H Cucuta2-1
22 Aug 2026H Bucaramanga0-0
09 Aug 2026H Internacional de Bogota2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Deportes Tolima Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Deportes Tolima to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Once Caldas wins
3Draws
6Deportes Tolima wins
15 Feb 2026Deportes Tolima v Once Caldas2-1
24 Aug 2025Once Caldas v Deportes Tolima0-1
11 Mar 2025Deportes Tolima v Once Caldas2-0
08 Dec 2024Deportes Tolima v Once Caldas1-0
21 Nov 2024Once Caldas v Deportes Tolima0-0
26 Oct 2024Deportes Tolima v Once Caldas1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Deportes Tolima to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Primera A

Once Caldas29
Played
Deportes Tolima31
Once Caldas1.6
Avg goals for
Deportes Tolima1.4
Once Caldas1.2
Avg goals against
Deportes Tolima1
Once Caldas4
Clean sheets
Deportes Tolima10
Best odds for this sectionDeportes Tolima Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Deportes Tolima to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Season data supports Deportes Tolima Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Once Caldas33198929
6Deportes Tolima311987410
3Deportes Tolima1685123
12Once Caldas982331
Once Caldas sit in position 12, while Deportes Tolima sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams to Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Once Caldas Over 2.5
60%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Once Caldas sit at 40% and Deportes Tolima sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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