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New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls
v
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

Major League Soccer | Sun 30 Aug, 00:30

New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

New York Red Bulls face Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer on Sun 30 Aug, 00:30. Conversely, Michael Bradley's Red Bulls arrive with momentum after picking up ten points from their last four league fixtures.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

New York Red Bulls Win

  • At 3, New York Red Bulls Win implies roughly 33%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling and sharp inverted runs.
  • Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for New York Red Bulls.
  • Philadelphia Union have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the New York Red Bulls Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • New York Red Bulls sit 8 in the table, while Philadelphia Union sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

New York Red Bulls Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 33% while the model sits nearer 27% (-6.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Philadelphia Union Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.72.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for New York Red Bulls Win sits against roughly 33% implied by the current price. Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for New York Red Bulls. Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling and sharp inverted runs.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 33% implied
Negative
Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 11.Visible data support
Positive
Philadelphia Union have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: New York Red Bulls Win is the preferred angle because philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling and sharp inverted runs. Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for New York Red Bulls. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

New York Red Bulls Win evidence

Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling.

Philadelphia Union have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for New York Red Bulls.

Philadelphia Union have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the New York Red Bulls Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

New York Red Bulls sit 8 in the table, while Philadelphia Union sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

New York Red Bulls Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    New York Red Bulls5.75
    Avg corners for
    Philadelphia Union6
    New York Red Bulls9.75
    Avg total corners
    Philadelphia Union7
    New York Red Bulls2
    Avg yellow cards
    Philadelphia Union0
    New York Red Bulls14.75
    Avg shots
    Philadelphia Union15
    Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 36%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 5.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    New York Red Bulls1
    Avg goals scored
    Philadelphia Union2
    New York Red Bulls1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Philadelphia Union1.4
    New York Red Bulls60%
    BTTS rate
    Philadelphia Union80%
    New York Red Bulls40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Philadelphia Union60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    3.1
    Check odds @ 3.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for New York Red Bulls and 80% for Philadelphia Union, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    New York Red Bulls to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    New York Red Bulls

    DLLWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    23 Aug 2026H Chicago Fire1-1
    20 Aug 2026H Nashville SC0-1
    16 Aug 2026A Atlanta United FC1-2
    02 Aug 2026H Orlando City SC3-2
    25 Jul 2026H Charlotte0-2

    Philadelphia Union

    DDWWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    23 Aug 2026A Austin1-1
    20 Aug 2026H Inter Miami2-2
    16 Aug 2026A New York City FC3-2
    02 Aug 2026H Atlanta United FC3-2
    26 Jul 2026H Seattle Sounders1-0
    Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1New York Red Bulls wins
    2Draws
    7Philadelphia Union wins
    23 Jul 2026Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls3-1
    17 Aug 2025New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union1-0
    14 Aug 2025Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls3-2
    13 Jul 2025Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls2-0
    01 Sep 2024New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union0-2
    07 Jul 2024Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls0-0
    Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    The head-to-head sample gives context for New York Red Bulls to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Major League Soccer

    New York Red Bulls0
    Played
    Philadelphia Union21
    New York Red Bulls-
    Avg goals for
    Philadelphia Union1.5
    New York Red Bulls-
    Avg goals against
    Philadelphia Union1.8
    New York Red Bulls-
    Clean sheets
    Philadelphia Union3
    Market aligned with main pickNew York Red Bulls to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    New York Red Bulls Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Season data supports New York Red Bulls to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8New York Red Bulls2621759-12
    13Philadelphia Union21215610-7
    New York Red Bulls sit in position 8, while Philadelphia Union sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the New York Red Bulls Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
    60%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
    2.4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: New York Red Bulls sit at 40% and Philadelphia Union sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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