Motherwell
AberdeenPremiership | Tue 15 Sep, 19:45
Motherwell v Aberdeen Stats
Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:32 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Motherwell host Aberdeen at Fir Park with a strong home record, unbeaten in their last nine Premiership matches including seven wins. Under Jens Askou, Motherwell control possession with an average of 59.1% and an 85.9% pass completion rate, dictating tempo and exploiting wide areas. Aberdeen arrive on a poor run, having lost five consecutive away games and failing to score in their last four on the road. Aberdeen's defensive vulnerabilities, especially on set pieces and aerial duels, contrast with Motherwell's disciplined defence conceding only 18 goals in 25 matches. This tactical and form disparity sets the stage for a confident home performance.
Motherwell to Win
- Motherwell unbeaten in last 9 home Premiership games, winning 7.
- Aberdeen lost 5 straight away games, scoring 0 in last 4 away matches.
- Motherwell average 59.1% possession with 85.9% pass accuracy, controlling play.
- Aberdeen weak defending set pieces and aerial duels, Motherwell strong in these areas.
- Motherwell conceded only 18 goals in 25 league matches, showing defensive solidity.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model rates Motherwell to Win with a 70.9% chance, reflecting their dominant home form and Aberdeen's poor away record. Motherwell's tactical control and defensive strength align with the data, while Aberdeen's scoring drought away and defensive errors increase the likelihood of a home victory. The of 1.6 (3/5) offer positive value with an 8.4% edge. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid, supporting in this selection.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Motherwell's tactical control at Fir Park and solid defensive record make them well placed against an Aberdeen side struggling on the road. Their ability to control possession and exploit set-piece weaknesses in Aberdeen's defence underpins the in a home win. Aberdeen's recent away goal drought further supports this outcome.
Alternative: Scorecast markets (Goalscorer + Score) for even higher risk/reward.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Motherwell
“Motherwell's control of possession and set-piece superiority create a tactical mismatch that should see them extend their unbeaten home run against a vulnerable Aberdeen side.”
Key Data Signals
Motherwell to Win evidence
Motherwell unbeaten in last 9 home Premiership games, winning 7.
Aberdeen lost 5 straight away games, scoring 0 in last 4 away matches.
Motherwell average 59.1% possession with 85.9% pass accuracy, controlling play.
Aberdeen weak defending set pieces and aerial duels, Motherwell strong in these areas.
What To Watch In The Data
Motherwell to Win notes
- In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1 per match, indicating moderate scoring.
- Motherwell's recent matches show a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, while Aberdeen's is 40%, suggesting a moderate tempo with potential for goals but also defensive caution.
Corners, cards and shots
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Recent form
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Motherwell
Aberdeen
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Head-to-head
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Season team stats
Premiership
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motherwell | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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