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Falkirk crestFalkirk
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Heart Of Midlothian crestHeart Of Midlothian

Premiership | Tue 15 Sep, 19:45

Falkirk v Heart Of Midlothian Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heart Of Midlothian hosts Falkirk at Tynecastle in a Premiership clash charged with title race tension and attacking promise. Hearts boast an unbeaten home streak stretching 20 matches and have won their last six league games at this venue, underpinning their status as well placed. However, defensive vulnerabilities have surfaced, with Hearts conceding in five consecutive matches, compounded by key absences including Craig Gordon. Falkirk arrive with from scoring in eight straight league games, bringing a direct attacking threat that could exploit Hearts' defensive lapses. This encounter promises a high-intensity battle where Hearts' home control meets Falkirk's resilient scoring streak, setting the stage for goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Hearts unbeaten in last 20 home Premiership matches, winning six straight at Tynecastle.
  • Hearts have conceded in five consecutive league games, indicating defensive fragility.
  • Falkirk have scored in eight consecutive Premiership matches, showing consistent attacking threat.
  • Hearts average nearly 14 shots and 56 dangerous attacks per game, maintaining sustained pressure.
  • Falkirk's away form includes scoring in multiple matches despite mid-table position, suggesting goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams to Score selection is strongly supported by Hearts' recent defensive struggles, having conceded in five straight matches, and Falkirk's impressive scoring run across eight consecutive games. Hearts' high attacking volume, averaging over 14 shots and 56 dangerous attacks per match, combined with Falkirk's ability to find the net consistently, creates a compelling case for goals at both ends. The model assigns a 76% chance to this outcome, reflecting the tactical openness and attacking intent from both sides, while the price offers significant value with a 44.7% edge. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Hearts Defensive VulnerabilityConceded in 5 consecutive matches
Strong positive
Falkirk Scoring ConsistencyScored in 8 consecutive matches
Strong positive
Hearts Attacking Volume14.17 shots and 56 dangerous attacks per game
Strong positive
Model Probability76% chance for Both Teams to Score
Strong positive
Price Value Edge44.7% positive edge at 3.2 odds
Strong positive
Main risk

Falkirk arrive with little external pressure but plenty of ability to disrupt the atmosphere.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Hearts' impressive home form is offset by defensive cracks, while Falkirk's persistent scoring streak ensures this match will feature goals from both sides, making the BTTS market a compelling choice.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Hearts unbeaten in last 20 home Premiership matches, winning six straight at Tynecastle.

Hearts have conceded in five consecutive league games, indicating defensive fragility.

Falkirk have scored in eight consecutive Premiership matches, showing consistent attacking threat.

Hearts average nearly 14 shots and 56 dangerous attacks per game, maintaining sustained pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend between these teams.
  • Hearts' home matches have seen a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals recently, while Falkirk's matches show a 40% rate.
  • The tempo and attacking patterns suggest a match prone to multiple goals, driven by Hearts' territorial control and Falkirk's counter-attacking threat, making Over 2.5 Goals a relevant trend to monitor alongside Both Teams to Score.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Falkirk4.4
Avg corners for
Heart Of Midlothian8.6
Falkirk11.4
Avg total corners
Heart Of Midlothian12.4
Falkirk2
Avg yellow cards
Heart Of Midlothian1
Falkirk9.8
Avg shots
Heart Of Midlothian17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Hearts dominate in shots and corners, averaging 17.2 shots and 8.6 corners per game, indicating sustained pressure and attacking territory. Falkirk contribute with a respectable 9.8 shots and 4.4 corners per match, showing willingness to attack despite being away. Card-wise, Falkirk average 2 yellows per game compared to Hearts' 1, reflecting a moderately physical contest. The volume of shots and set-piece opportunities supports an open game with chances for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Falkirk0.6
Avg goals scored
Heart Of Midlothian2.4
Falkirk1.4
Avg goals conceded
Heart Of Midlothian1
Falkirk60%
BTTS rate
Heart Of Midlothian80%
Falkirk40%
Over 2.5 goals
Heart Of Midlothian100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown strong attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, with Hearts conceding in five straight matches and Falkirk scoring in eight consecutive games. Hearts average nearly two goals per match but have struggled to keep clean sheets, while Falkirk's offensive output remains consistent. This combination suggests a match with goals at both ends, aligning perfectly with the Both Teams to Score market context.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at 3.2 (11/5), reflecting a 31.3% implied chance, which is significantly below the model's 76% probability. This sizable indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring, supported by Hearts' recent defensive concessions and Falkirk's scoring consistency. The price is a positive value opportunity rather than a watch-only angle, encouraging confident backing of this selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Falkirk

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
05 Sep 2026A Dundee Utd1-1
02 Sep 2026H Rangers1-2
29 Aug 2026A Celtic1-2
09 Aug 2026A Motherwell0-0
01 Aug 2026H ST Mirren0-2

Heart Of Midlothian

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 1L
06 Sep 2026H Dundee2-1
03 Sep 2026A Hibernian3-1
29 Aug 2026H ST Johnstone2-1
09 Aug 2026H Dundee Utd4-0
01 Aug 2026A Aberdeen1-2
Best odds for this sectionHeart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Falkirk Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data highlights Hearts' strong home performance with 12 points from recent matches but a concerning trend of conceding goals in each of their last five outings. Falkirk, while mid-table, have managed to score in 60% of their recent games, maintaining an attacking edge. Hearts' over 2.5 goals rate stands at 100%, emphasizing high-scoring matches, while Falkirk's 40% rate suggests occasional goal bursts. This form profile supports a scenario where both teams find the net.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Falkirk wins
1Draws
7Heart Of Midlothian wins
13 May 2026Heart Of Midlothian v Falkirk3-0
21 Feb 2026Heart Of Midlothian v Falkirk1-0
17 Jan 2026Heart Of Midlothian v Falkirk1-1
13 Dec 2025Falkirk v Heart Of Midlothian0-2
27 Sep 2025Heart Of Midlothian v Falkirk3-0
17 Aug 2024Falkirk v Heart Of Midlothian2-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows Hearts winning four times, including recent home victories, with an average of 2.6 goals per game. Falkirk have occasionally challenged Hearts but generally have been outscored. While the sample supports Hearts' home strength, it also reflects occasions where Falkirk have scored, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends. The H2H data moderately supports the Both Teams to Score selection as a realistic outcome.
Season team stats

Premiership

Falkirk5
Played
Heart Of Midlothian5
Falkirk0.6
Avg goals for
Heart Of Midlothian2.4
Falkirk1.4
Avg goals against
Heart Of Midlothian1
Falkirk1
Clean sheets
Heart Of Midlothian1
Best odds for this sectionHeart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Falkirk to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Falkirk Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Season-long statistics reveal Hearts as a high-scoring side, averaging 2.4 goals per game while conceding 1.0, reflecting offensive strength paired with defensive vulnerabilities. Falkirk average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, indicating a less prolific but still capable attack. Hearts' consistent creation of dangerous attacks and shots contrasts with Falkirk's more modest output, yet their scoring streak evidences efficiency. These season stats reinforce the expectation of goals from both teams in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Heart Of Midlothian1254017
11Falkirk25023-4
Heart Of Midlothian sits third in the Premiership with 12 points, reflecting strong form and title ambitions, while Falkirk occupies 11th with 2 points, indicating a mid-table position with less pressure. The standings suggest Hearts will push for victory to maintain momentum, while Falkirk can play with relative freedom, potentially increasing attacking risk-taking. This dynamic supports an open game with both sides motivated to score, aligning with the Both Teams to Score market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Falkirk Over 2.5
100%Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend between these teams. Hearts' home matches have seen a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals recently, while Falkirk's matches show a 40% rate. The tempo and attacking patterns suggest a match prone to multiple goals, driven by Hearts' territorial control and Falkirk's counter-attacking threat, making Over 2.5 Goals a relevant trend to monitor alongside Both Teams to Score.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.