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Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Premiership | Tue 15 Sep, 19:45

Hibernian v Kilmarnock Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hibernian host Kilmarnock at Easter Road aiming to convert recent defensive solidity into a crucial home victory. Hibernian remain unbeaten in their last 12 home league games against Kilmarnock and have kept clean sheets in all March fixtures, showcasing strong defensive control. Kilmarnock arrive with poor away form, having lost four of their last six away matches, but come off back-to-back wins and have scored in eight consecutive league games. The tactical battle features Hibernian's possession-based, high-accuracy passing and wing play against Kilmarnock's direct style and aerial strength, setting up a contest between structured control and aggressive transitions.

BT4Y best bet

Hibernian to Win

  • Hibernian unbeaten in last 12 home league matches vs Kilmarnock
  • Hibernian kept clean sheets in all March matches, showing defensive strength
  • Kilmarnock lost 4 of their last 6 away games, struggling defensively
  • Kilmarnock have scored in eight straight league matches, posing some threat
  • Hibernian average 13.2 shots per game, exploiting Kilmarnock's defensive weaknesses

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Hibernian to win with a 73.6% chance, reflecting their strong home record and defensive form. Hibernian's ability to control possession (81.3% pass accuracy) and create quality chances through key players like Jamie McGrath and Martin Boyle supports this. Kilmarnock's poor away defensive record, conceding 60 goals this season, further strengthens the home side's advantage. The price offers positive value with a 6.9% edge, making this a confident selection. No data limitations affect the assessment.

Home unbeaten streak vs Kilmarnock12 matches
Strong positive
Hibernian defensive form in MarchClean sheets in all matches
Strong positive
Kilmarnock away losses4 losses in last 6
Positive
Hibernian possession and passing49.1% possession, 81.3% accuracy
Positive
Model value edge6.9% positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hibernian's tactical control and defensive resilience at Easter Road give them a clear edge over Kilmarnock, who struggle away and concede frequently. The home side's ability to create chances through wing play and central creativity, combined with Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerabilities, makes a home win the most logical outcome.

Main risk

It is the most straightforward market but carries the risk of a late equaliser ruining a selection.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage

“Hibernian's unbeaten home record against Kilmarnock and recent defensive form create a strong foundation for victory. Their possession-based style should exploit Kilmarnock's defensive frailties, especially down the wings and through balls.”

Key Data Signals

Hibernian to Win evidence

Hibernian unbeaten in last 12 home league matches vs Kilmarnock

Hibernian kept clean sheets in all March matches, showing defensive strength

Kilmarnock lost 4 of their last 6 away games, struggling defensively

Kilmarnock have scored in eight straight league matches, posing some threat

What To Watch In The Data

Hibernian to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating a moderately scoring fixture.
  • Hibernian's recent clean sheets and Kilmarnock's scoring streak suggest a match with controlled tempo and selective attacking bursts.
  • The trend supports a match with potential for over 2.5 goals but also allows for a disciplined defensive performance by Hibernian.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hibernian1.4
Avg goals scored
Kilmarnock0.8
Hibernian1.8
Avg goals conceded
Kilmarnock2.8
Hibernian100%
BTTS rate
Kilmarnock40%
Hibernian100%
Over 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form shows Hibernian have kept clean sheets in all March matches, while Kilmarnock have scored in eight consecutive games. This suggests a likely low-scoring match with a strong chance of BTTS No and under 3.5 goals. Hibernian's defensive discipline contrasts with Kilmarnock's attacking persistence, supporting a controlled home win with limited goal concessions.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +6.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The of 1/2 for Hibernian to win reflect their strong home control and defensive record against Kilmarnock. The model's 73.6% win probability indicates positive value, suggesting the price fairly rewards Hibernian's consistent form and Kilmarnock's away struggles. This is a price-sensitive but solid selection with room for if Hibernian maintain control.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Hibernian5.5
Avg corners for
Kilmarnock5.67
Hibernian10.5
Avg total corners
Kilmarnock10.33
Hibernian1.25
Avg yellow cards
Kilmarnock2.67
Hibernian16
Avg shots
Kilmarnock12
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +1.8 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Hibernian average 16.6 shots and 6.2 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Kilmarnock's higher fouling rate and 2.2 yellow cards per game reflect their aggressive style, which may concede set-piece opportunities. The shot volume and corner advantage favor Hibernian's ability to create scoring chances while managing discipline effectively.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hibernian

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
06 Sep 2026A ST Johnstone1-2
03 Sep 2026H Heart Of Midlothian1-3
30 Aug 2026A Dundee2-1
09 Aug 2026A Rangers2-1
02 Aug 2026H Motherwell1-2

Kilmarnock

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 4L
05 Sep 2026A Aberdeen0-0
02 Sep 2026H ST Mirren0-1
29 Aug 2026H Dundee Utd0-4
09 Aug 2026H Celtic1-5
02 Aug 2026A ST Johnstone3-4
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +6.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Hibernian are unbeaten in their last five league matches, demonstrating steady form and defensive solidity. Kilmarnock's recent back-to-back wins offer momentum, but their overall away form remains poor with four losses in six. This recent form data supports Hibernian's home advantage and likelihood to maintain control and secure victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Hibernian wins
5Draws
0Kilmarnock wins
04 Apr 2026Hibernian v Kilmarnock3-0
03 Jan 2026Kilmarnock v Hibernian1-3
10 Aug 2025Hibernian v Kilmarnock2-2
15 Mar 2025Kilmarnock v Hibernian1-1
29 Dec 2024Hibernian v Kilmarnock1-0
01 Sep 2024Kilmarnock v Hibernian1-1
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +6.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The head-to-head record strongly supports Hibernian, who are unbeaten in their last 12 home league matches against Kilmarnock. This control reflects psychological and tactical advantages at Easter Road, reinforcing in a home win. The historical data is a meaningful factor given the consistent patterns of control and defensive strength by Hibernian.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Premiership

Hibernian5
Played
Kilmarnock5
Hibernian1.4
Avg goals for
Kilmarnock0.8
Hibernian1.8
Avg goals against
Kilmarnock2.8
Hibernian0
Clean sheets
Kilmarnock1
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +6.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over the season, Hibernian have scored 48 goals with a strong defensive record, conceding fewer goals than Kilmarnock, who have allowed 60 goals. Hibernian's higher shot volume and accuracy underpin their offensive capability, while Kilmarnock's defensive frailties and lower possession rates highlight structural weaknesses that favor Hibernian's win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Hibernian65203-2
12Kilmarnock15014-10
Hibernian sit 8th with 6 points from recent matches, aiming to climb higher, while Kilmarnock are 12th with only 1 point, facing relegation pressure. The standings emphasize Hibernian's motivation to capitalize on home advantage and Kilmarnock's need to avoid defeat, adding competitive tension but favoring the home side's controlled approach.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Hibernian Over 2.5
60%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating a moderately scoring fixture. Hibernian's recent clean sheets and Kilmarnock's scoring streak suggest a match with controlled tempo and selective attacking bursts. The trend supports a match with potential for over 2.5 goals but also allows for a disciplined defensive performance by Hibernian.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Hibernian v Kilmarnock prediction

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