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Hibernian crestHibernian
v
Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Premiership | Sat 22 Aug, 15:00

Hibernian v Kilmarnock Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hibernian host Kilmarnock at Easter Road in a Premiership clash where defensive solidity and tactical control will be decisive. Hibernian remain unbeaten in their last 12 home league games against Kilmarnock and have kept clean sheets in all March matches, while Kilmarnock arrive with poor away form, having lost four of their last six away fixtures. Hibernian's possession-based style and superior passing accuracy contrast with Kilmarnock's direct, aerial approach. Both sides have recent momentum, with Hibernian unbeaten in five league matches and Kilmarnock on back-to-back wins, setting up a tense contest with high stakes for both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Hibernian to Win

  • Hibernian unbeaten in last 12 home league matches versus Kilmarnock
  • Kilmarnock lost 4 of their last 6 away matches
  • Hibernian kept clean sheets in every March fixture
  • Kilmarnock conceded 60 goals this season, showing defensive vulnerability
  • Hibernian average 13.2 shots per game, exploiting Kilmarnock's defensive weaknesses

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Hibernian to win with a 66.9% chance, reflecting their strong home record and defensive resilience. Hibernian's ability to control possession and limit Kilmarnock's attacking opportunities, combined with Kilmarnock's poor away defensive record, supports this outcome. The price is aligned with the , indicating a fair value bet. The data quality is solid, with comprehensive stats for both teams, reinforcing in this selection.

Home unbeaten streak vs Kilmarnock12 matches
Strong positive
Hibernian defensive formClean sheets in March
Strong positive
Kilmarnock away form4 losses in last 6
Strong positive
Possession and passing accuracyHibernian 49.1% & 81.3%, Kilmarnock 40.7% & 72.5%
Positive
Value edge0.2% positive
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hibernian's defensive discipline and home control provide a solid foundation for victory, while Kilmarnock's struggles away and defensive frailties make them vulnerable. The tactical matchup favors Hibernian's possession and wing play to exploit Kilmarnock's weaknesses, making a home win the most probable outcome.

Main risk

It is the most straightforward market but carries the risk of a late equaliser ruining a selection.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Hibernian's consistent home form and ability to control games through possession and defensive organization make them the clear favourites against a Kilmarnock side that struggles to maintain structure away from home.”

Key Data Signals

Hibernian to Win evidence

Hibernian unbeaten in last 12 home league matches versus Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock lost 4 of their last 6 away matches

Hibernian kept clean sheets in every March fixture

Kilmarnock conceded 60 goals this season, showing defensive vulnerability

What To Watch In The Data

Hibernian to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, Hibernian's recent defensive form and Kilmarnock's defensive weaknesses suggest the match may lean towards fewer goals, with a controlled tempo and tactical discipline limiting open, high-scoring exchanges.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Hibernian6
Avg corners for
Kilmarnock4
Hibernian10.5
Avg total corners
Kilmarnock10.5
Hibernian1
Avg yellow cards
Kilmarnock1.5
Hibernian13.5
Avg shots
Kilmarnock8.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 50% · edge -2.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Hibernian average more shots and corners, reflecting territorial control and attacking pressure. Kilmarnock's higher yellow card average indicates a more aggressive defensive approach, which could lead to set-piece opportunities for Hibernian and influence the flow of the match through fouls and discipline.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hibernian1.5
Avg goals scored
Kilmarnock2
Hibernian1.5
Avg goals conceded
Kilmarnock4.5
Hibernian100%
BTTS rate
Kilmarnock100%
Hibernian100%
Over 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown scoring ability, but Hibernian's clean sheet streak in March and Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a low-scoring game. The BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals markets are supported by Hibernian's defensive control and Kilmarnock's inability to consistently breach strong defenses away from home.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The for Hibernian to win at 1/2 reflect their strong home advantage and recent form, closely matching the model's 66.9% win probability. This alignment suggests the market price is fair with a small positive edge, indicating a sensible bet rather than a value overload.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hibernian

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
09 Aug 2026A Rangers2-1
02 Aug 2026H Motherwell1-2

Kilmarnock

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
09 Aug 2026H Celtic1-5
02 Aug 2026A ST Johnstone3-4
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Hibernian's unbeaten run of five league matches, including multiple clean sheets, contrasts with Kilmarnock's recent away struggles despite back-to-back wins. This form disparity underlines Hibernian's steadiness and defensive reliability, reinforcing their status as favourites to secure victory at home.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Hibernian wins
5Draws
0Kilmarnock wins
04 Apr 2026Hibernian v Kilmarnock3-0
03 Jan 2026Kilmarnock v Hibernian1-3
10 Aug 2025Hibernian v Kilmarnock2-2
15 Mar 2025Kilmarnock v Hibernian1-1
29 Dec 2024Hibernian v Kilmarnock1-0
01 Sep 2024Kilmarnock v Hibernian1-1
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head record strongly favors Hibernian, who are unbeaten in their last 12 home league matches against Kilmarnock. This historical control provides a psychological and tactical edge, reinforcing the likelihood of a home win in this fixture.
Season team stats

Premiership

Hibernian2
Played
Kilmarnock2
Hibernian1.5
Avg goals for
Kilmarnock2
Hibernian1.5
Avg goals against
Kilmarnock4.5
Hibernian0
Clean sheets
Kilmarnock0
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Hibernian's season-long defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals and maintaining clean sheets in recent matches, contrasts with Kilmarnock's porous defense that has allowed 60 goals. Hibernian's higher shot averages and better passing accuracy support their ability to control games and limit Kilmarnock's scoring chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Hibernian321010
12Kilmarnock02002-5
Hibernian sit comfortably in 7th place with 48 points, aiming to push into the top four, while Kilmarnock languish near the bottom at 12th with 27 points. The league positions reflect the pressure on Kilmarnock to gain points away, but also Hibernian's motivation to consolidate and improve their standing at home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Hibernian Over 2.5
100%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring. However, Hibernian's recent defensive form and Kilmarnock's defensive weaknesses suggest the match may lean towards fewer goals, with a controlled tempo and tactical discipline limiting open, high-scoring exchanges.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Hibernian v Kilmarnock prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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