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Vitoria crestVitoria

Serie A | Sun 13 Sep, 20:00

Mirassol v Vitoria Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vitoria hosts Mirassol in a crucial Serie A clash where home resilience meets away possession control. Vitoria have forged a stronghold at Estádio Manoel Barradas, unbeaten in six of their last seven home league games and conceding just 0.67 goals per match. Mirassol, despite commanding 57.9% possession and averaging 15.7 shots per game, arrive winless in six matches, struggling to convert control into points. Tactical contrasts are stark: Vitoria's direct counter-attacking style aims to exploit Mirassol's defensive vulnerabilities, while Mirassol must overcome finishing inefficiencies to challenge the home side's solidity. The fixture carries high stakes as both teams battle to climb from the lower table positions.

BT4Y best bet

Vitoria to Win

  • Vitoria unbeaten in six of last seven home league matches, conceding just 0.67 goals per game
  • Mirassol winless in last six matches despite 57.9% average possession and 15.7 shots per game
  • Vitoria’s direct counter-attacking style targets Mirassol’s defensive softness and transition vulnerabilities
  • Mirassol strong on attacking set-pieces but weak defensively and in finishing chances
  • Vitoria have won four of their last six home matches, showing efficiency and resilience

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vitoria to win based on their strong home form and defensive solidity, conceding fewer than one goal per game at home. Mirassol’s high possession and shot volume have not translated into results due to poor finishing and defensive lapses. Vitoria’s direct, counter-attacking approach is well-suited to exploit these weaknesses. The at 2.4 (7/5) offer a modest , reflecting a balanced but favorable chance for Vitoria. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Home defensive strength0.67 goals conceded per home game
Strong positive
Away team finishing weaknessLow conversion despite 15.7 shots per game
Positive
Recent formVitoria unbeaten in 6 of 7 home league games
Strong positive
Tactical matchupVitoria’s counter-attack vs Mirassol’s possession
Positive
Price edge4.5% value edge at 2.4 odds
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vitoria’s home defensive resilience and efficient counter-attacking style give them a tactical and form advantage over Mirassol, who struggle to convert possession into goals. This combination makes Vitoria the likely winners in a tight contest where defensive discipline will be key.

Main risk

That suits Jair Ventura, especially against a side that likes to dominate the ball but has clear problems without it.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“Vitoria’s ability to maintain defensive structure while exploiting quick transitions makes them a tough opponent at home, especially against a Mirassol side that dominates possession but lacks clinical finishing.”

Key Data Signals

Vitoria to Win evidence

Vitoria unbeaten in six of last seven home league matches, conceding just 0.67 goals per game

Mirassol winless in last six matches despite 57.9% average possession and 15.7 shots per game

Vitoria’s direct counter-attacking style targets Mirassol’s defensive softness and transition vulnerabilities

Mirassol strong on attacking set-pieces but weak defensively and in finishing chances

What To Watch In The Data

Vitoria to Win notes

  • Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.67, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Vitoria’s low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus Mirassol’s higher rate (40%) suggests Vitoria’s defensive approach often limits goal volume, supporting expectations of a tight, tactical game with limited scoring.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mirassol4.6
Avg corners for
Vitoria5.4
Mirassol10.8
Avg total corners
Vitoria10.2
Mirassol2.8
Avg yellow cards
Vitoria2
Mirassol11.8
Avg shots
Vitoria15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +2.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Mirassol’s higher average shots (13.5) and corners (5.25) reflect their territorial control, but Vitoria’s disciplined defense limits shot quality and quantity. Mirassol’s higher yellow card average (2.75) versus Vitoria’s (1) suggests a more aggressive approach that could lead to set-piece opportunities, adding tactical nuance to the match dynamics.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1
Avg goals scored
Vitoria0.6
Mirassol2
Avg goals conceded
Vitoria1.2
Mirassol80%
BTTS rate
Vitoria20%
Mirassol40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vitoria20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Goal trends suggest a low-scoring match with Vitoria conceding just 0.67 goals per home game and Mirassol’s finishing inefficiency limiting scoring chances. Mirassol’s 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Vitoria’s 20%, indicating Mirassol often concede but Vitoria’s defensive solidity may keep the scoreline tight, supporting a cautious goals market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVitoria to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Vitoria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The for Vitoria to win reflect their strong home form and defensive record, offering a slight over the implied probability. The price is reasonable given Vitoria’s recent unbeaten home streak and Mirassol’s struggles to convert possession into goals, making this a price-sensitive but justified selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

WLDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
06 Sep 2026A Coritiba2-1
02 Sep 2026A Flamengo0-2
30 Aug 2026H Palmeiras1-1
23 Aug 2026A Santos1-1
16 Aug 2026H Flamengo1-5

Vitoria

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
08 Sep 2026H Gremio1-0
29 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG1-2
23 Aug 2026H Bahia0-2
16 Aug 2026H Botafogo1-0
09 Aug 2026A Flamengo0-2
Market aligned with main pickVitoria to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Vitoria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Vitoria’s recent form is strong, unbeaten in six of seven home league matches, reflecting defensive solidity and effective counter-attacking. Mirassol’s form is poor, winless in six matches with four defeats, highlighting struggles to convert possession into points. This contrast in momentum favors Vitoria’s and tactical execution at home.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Mirassol wins
2Draws
3Vitoria wins
22 Mar 2026Vitoria v Mirassol1-0
29 Nov 2025Vitoria v Mirassol2-0
26 Jul 2025Mirassol v Vitoria1-1
01 Sep 2023Vitoria v Mirassol0-0
19 May 2023Mirassol v Vitoria2-0
07 Aug 2022Mirassol v Vitoria1-2
Market aligned with main pickVitoria to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample of six matches shows a modest average of 1.67 goals per game, reflecting generally tight contests. Previous meetings provide some support for Vitoria’s defensive resilience and ability to grind out results, though the sample is limited and current form and tactical context carry more weight for this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie A

Mirassol26
Played
Vitoria26
Mirassol1.1
Avg goals for
Vitoria1
Mirassol1.5
Avg goals against
Vitoria1.4
Mirassol1
Clean sheets
Vitoria10
Market aligned with main pickVitoria to WinBetUK guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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Vitoria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Season statistics underline Vitoria’s defensive strength at home and efficient attack, with fewer goals conceded and a solid points tally. Mirassol’s high possession and shot volume have not translated into results due to defensive fragility and poor finishing, reinforcing Vitoria’s edge in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Vitoria32269512-12
16Mirassol28267712-11
Both teams occupy the lower half of the Serie A table, separated by just a few points, making this fixture a critical six-pointer. Vitoria’s slightly higher rank and points total reflect better recent results and home advantage, adding pressure on Mirassol to break their winless streak away from home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Mirassol Over 2.5
20%Vitoria Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.67, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Vitoria’s low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus Mirassol’s higher rate (40%) suggests Vitoria’s defensive approach often limits goal volume, supporting expectations of a tight, tactical game with limited scoring.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Mirassol v Vitoria prediction

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