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Mirassol crestMirassol
v
Flamengo crestFlamengo

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 22:30

Mirassol v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo arrives as a strong contender in Serie A, currently sitting second with 42 points, facing Mirassol who are 15th with 23 points. Flamengo's recent form shows a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding only 0.4 goals on average. Mirassol, meanwhile, have struggled offensively and defensively, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 goals per match. Flamengo's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and high pressing, which could exploit Mirassol's vulnerabilities, making this a challenging away fixture for the home side.

BT4Y best bet

Flamengo to Win

  • Flamengo ranks 2nd in Serie A with 42 points, Mirassol 15th with 23 points.
  • Flamengo averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes only 0.4 per game, showing strong defense.
  • Mirassol has a high BTTS rate of 80%, but Flamengo's defense is robust with a 40% BTTS rate.
  • Flamengo averages 16.4 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Flamengo's of 70% to win is supported by their superior recent form, stronger attack and defense metrics, and higher league standing. The team’s ability to limit goals conceded (0.4 per game) contrasts with Mirassol's defensive fragility. Offensive firepower led by key attackers increases scoring probability. The at 1.91 offer positive value against the implied chance of 52.4%, making Flamengo to win a sensible selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Flamengo Goals For per Game2.2
Strong positive
Flamengo Goals Against per Game0.4
Strong positive
Mirassol Defensive Record1.4 goals conceded per game
Negative
Value Edge17.6%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Flamengo's tactical discipline and superior attacking efficiency make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their strong defensive record and ability to create high-quality chances underpin the in their victory. Mirassol’s inconsistency and defensive vulnerabilities further tilt the balance in Flamengo’s favor.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Flamengo’s blend of attacking potency and defensive solidity positions them well to secure victory against a Mirassol side that struggles to contain pressure and lacks consistent goal threat.”

Key Data Signals

Flamengo to Win evidence

Flamengo ranks 2nd in Serie A with 42 points, Mirassol 15th with 23 points.

Flamengo averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes only 0.4 per game, showing strong defense.

Mirassol has a high BTTS rate of 80%, but Flamengo's defense is robust with a 40% BTTS rate.

Flamengo averages 16.4 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo to Win notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.5 goals, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game.
  • However, Flamengo’s recent defensive solidity and Mirassol’s offensive inconsistencies suggest that while goals are possible, Flamengo’s control may limit the total to a moderate level, aligning with an Over 2.5 goals trend but with some caution.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mirassol4
Avg corners for
Flamengo5.5
Mirassol9.5
Avg total corners
Flamengo8.5
Mirassol2
Avg yellow cards
Flamengo1.25
Mirassol10.25
Avg shots
Flamengo17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +1.9 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
Flamengo exerts more offensive pressure, averaging 16.4 shots and 5 corners per game compared to Mirassol’s 11 shots and 4.2 corners. Both teams maintain similar discipline with around 1.6 to 1.8 yellow cards per game, indicating a balanced but competitive match environment with sustained attacking play from Flamengo.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1.2
Avg goals scored
Flamengo2.2
Mirassol1.4
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo0.4
Mirassol80%
BTTS rate
Flamengo40%
Mirassol60%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Mirassol’s high BTTS rate of 80% contrasts with Flamengo’s more conservative 40%, suggesting Flamengo’s defense is more reliable. Flamengo’s average of 2.2 goals per game and Mirassol’s 1.2 goals scored indicate a moderately open game, but Flamengo’s defensive strength may limit Mirassol’s scoring chances, making goals likely but BTTS less certain.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Flamengo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
The current of 1.91 for Flamengo to win reflect a market that underestimates their 70% model probability, presenting a positive value opportunity. The significant of 17.6% indicates that the price is attractive for bettors seeking a strong favorite with solid statistical backing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

LWDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
09 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-3
29 Jul 2026H Remo2-1
26 Jul 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-1
18 Jul 2026H Gremio2-1
30 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense0-1

Flamengo

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
09 Aug 2026H Vitoria2-0
29 Jul 2026A Internacional1-1
26 Jul 2026H Sao Paulo1-1
23 Jul 2026A Chapecoense-sc4-0
30 May 2026H Coritiba3-0
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Flamengo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Flamengo’s recent form is strong, accumulating 11 points with an average of 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game, reflecting both attacking efficiency and defensive resilience. Mirassol’s 7 points and higher goals conceded per game highlight their struggles, reinforcing Flamengo’s advantage in momentum and form heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Mirassol wins
1Draws
1Flamengo wins
06 Dec 2025Mirassol v Flamengo3-3
09 Aug 2025Flamengo v Mirassol2-1
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows an average of 4.5 goals per game, suggesting open encounters historically. While this supports the potential for goals, the small sample size means current form and tactical setups carry more weight in predicting the outcome, with Flamengo’s recent defensive improvements being a key factor.
Season team stats

Serie A

Mirassol21
Played
Flamengo0
Mirassol1.1
Avg goals for
Flamengo-
Mirassol1.4
Avg goals against
Flamengo-
Mirassol1
Clean sheets
Flamengo-
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Flamengo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over the season, Flamengo’s attack ranks among the most prolific with 2.2 goals per game, while their defense is notably stingy, conceding just 0.4 goals per match. Mirassol’s season stats show a less effective attack and a more porous defense, underscoring Flamengo’s superiority in both phases of play and supporting the likelihood of an away win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Flamengo4221126321
15Mirassol23216510-6
Flamengo’s position as 2nd in the league with 42 points reflects consistent high-level performance and competitiveness for top honors. Mirassol’s 15th place and 23 points indicate a team fighting to avoid relegation, suggesting a disparity in quality and stakes that favors Flamengo in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Mirassol Over 2.5
40%Flamengo Over 2.5
4.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.5 goals, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game. However, Flamengo’s recent defensive solidity and Mirassol’s offensive inconsistencies suggest that while goals are possible, Flamengo’s control may limit the total to a moderate level, aligning with an Over 2.5 goals trend but with some caution.

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