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Vado crestVado

Serie C - Girone B | Wed 16 Sep, 20:00

Livorno v Vado Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Livorno and Vado meet in Serie C - Girone B with both sides showing cautious attacking output so far this season. Livorno sits 7th with 7 points, while Vado is 14th with 4 points, reflecting contrasting league positions but similar low-scoring trends. Both teams average just 0.75 goals per game and have kept matches tight, suggesting a tactical approach prioritizing defensive solidity. This fixture is likely to be a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both sides have shown a propensity to avoid high-scoring encounters early in the campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average only 0.75 goals scored per game this season.
  • Livorno and Vado have an Over 2.5 Goals rate of just 25%, indicating low-scoring matches.
  • Recent form shows both teams concede fewer than one goal per game on average.
  • No previous head-to-head meetings to influence expectations, emphasizing current form and stats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting the low scoring averages and defensive tendencies of both Livorno and Vado. With both teams scoring and conceding less than one goal per game, the likelihood of a low-scoring match is strong. The market price at 1.62 offers a small positive , supporting the selection as a sensible choice for bettors seeking a controlled game outcome. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Low scoring averagesBoth teams average 0.75 goals scored per game
Strong positive
Defensive solidityBoth concede fewer than 1 goal per game
Positive
Low Over 2.5 Goals rateOnly 25% of matches exceed 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Market priceOdds of 1.62 provide small positive value
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactically cautious match with both Livorno and Vado prioritizing defensive organization. The low scoring averages and recent form data suggest limited goal opportunities, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice. The teams' current league positions and points totals reflect a focus on avoiding defeat rather than aggressive attacking, supporting a low-scoring outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based low-scoring expectation

“Livorno and Vado's early season patterns point to a match where defensive discipline will dominate, limiting goal chances and favoring a low-scoring affair.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average only 0.75 goals scored per game this season.

Recent form shows both teams concede fewer than one goal per game on average.

No previous head-to-head meetings to influence expectations, emphasizing current form and stats.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • There are no previous head-to-head matches between Livorno and Vado, so historical trends are unavailable.
  • However, the broader Over 2.5 Goals trend panel shows a low rate of high-scoring games for both sides this season, suggesting a tempo and defensive discipline that limit goal opportunities in their matches.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Livorno0.75
Avg goals scored
Vado0.75
Livorno0.75
Avg goals conceded
Vado1
Livorno25%
BTTS rate
Vado25%
Livorno25%
Over 2.5 goals
Vado25%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both Livorno and Vado have low goals scored and conceded averages, with a 25% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a similar 25% BTTS rate. This indicates a trend towards matches with limited scoring and often only one side finding the net, supporting a controlled goals environment rather than open, high-scoring games.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Livorno

LWDW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Spezia0-2
06 Sep 2026H Atalanta II1-0
29 Aug 2026A Pineto0-0
24 Aug 2026H Torres2-1

Vado

LLDW
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC0-1
06 Sep 2026A Reggiana1-3
28 Aug 2026A Pianese0-0
21 Aug 2026H Atalanta II2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 83% vs implied 89% · edge -6.7 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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Vado Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Livorno Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Livorno to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Vado to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows Livorno and Vado both averaging 0.75 goals scored and conceding fewer than one goal per game, with only 25% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. This consistent pattern of low scoring supports the Under 2.5 Goals selection as a reflection of their current tactical approaches and match outcomes.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Livorno742110
14Vado44112-1
Livorno's 7th place and Vado's 14th position reflect differing league fortunes but do not translate into high-scoring tendencies. Both teams' points totals and rankings indicate a focus on securing results through defensive resilience rather than prolific scoring, aligning with a low-goal match expectation.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVado Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 35% · edge +6.9 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Livorno Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Livorno to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Vado to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.62, reflecting a modest given the model's 66% probability. This price is reasonable and supported by the teams' low scoring and conceding rates, making it a price-sensitive but attractive option for bettors seeking a controlled match outcome.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Livorno wins
0Draws
0Vado wins
Best odds for this sectionLivorno to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 59% · edge -1.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Vado to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
No prior meetings exist between Livorno and Vado, so head-to-head data cannot inform expectations. This places greater emphasis on current season form and tactical trends to assess the likely low-scoring nature of the upcoming fixture.
Season team stats

Serie C - Girone B

Livorno4
Played
Vado4
Livorno0.8
Avg goals for
Vado0.8
Livorno0.8
Avg goals against
Vado1
Livorno2
Clean sheets
Vado2
Best odds for this sectionVado Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 35% · edge +6.9 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Livorno Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Livorno to WinBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Vado to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Season-long statistics reveal both teams have maintained tight defensive records and limited offensive output, with low goals for and against averages. This balance suggests matches are often decided by narrow margins and limited goal events, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Livorno Over 2.5
25%Vado Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
There are no previous head-to-head matches between Livorno and Vado, so historical trends are unavailable. However, the broader Over 2.5 Goals trend panel shows a low rate of high-scoring games for both sides this season, suggesting a tempo and defensive discipline that limit goal opportunities in their matches.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.