Liverpool

Fulham

Premier League | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Liverpool v Fulham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool hosts Fulham at Anfield in a Premier League clash where disciplinary intensity is expected to be high. Liverpool, aiming to secure a top-four finish, face pressure after a turbulent run with only one win in six matches. Fulham's reactive defensive style and Liverpool's high volume of dangerous attacks set the stage for tactical fouls and bookings, particularly in midfield and wide areas. The match's stakes and tactical demands create an environment ripe for disciplinary action, especially with Liverpool missing key defensive players, increasing the likelihood of rash challenges and cards.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

Liverpool averages over 3 yellow cards per game, indicating a high disciplinary count.
Fulham's defensive approach and lower possession lead to tactical fouls and bookings.
Key players like Sasa Lukic and Antonee Robinson face high booking risks due to their defensive roles.
Liverpool's missing defensive personnel increase pressure and potential for rash fouls.
Recent form shows Liverpool's frustration, often translating into more cards.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 61.3% chance for the Cards market, reflecting Liverpool's aggressive pressing and Fulham's reactive defending. Liverpool's average of 3.33 yellow cards per match and Fulham's tactical fouling to disrupt possession support a higher card count. The absence of key Liverpool defenders increases defensive vulnerability, likely leading to more fouls. The match context of high stakes and tactical intensity further elevates booking probabilities. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value selection based on the data and tactical setup.

Liverpool Yellow Cards Average3.33 per match

Strong positive

Fulham Defensive FoulsHigh tactical fouling

Positive

Liverpool Defensive AbsencesAlisson and Endo missing

Positive

Match Stakes and PressureTop-four race urgency

Positive

Model Confidence68%

Positive

Main risk

Disciplinary Risk: Fulham post 48.53 dangerous attacks but will spend long periods in a low block.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Cards market

“Liverpool's pressing intensity combined with Fulham's defensive resilience creates a perfect storm for a high-card count, especially given Liverpool's defensive absences and Fulham's need to disrupt play.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Liverpool averages over 3 yellow cards per game, indicating a high disciplinary count.

Key players like Sasa Lukic and Antonee Robinson face high booking risks due to their defensive roles.

Liverpool's missing defensive personnel increase pressure and potential for rash fouls.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 3.6, with both teams frequently involved in open, attacking games.
This tempo creates numerous defensive challenges and transitions, increasing the chance of fouls and cards.
The trend suggests a lively match with multiple goal and card incidents, supporting the cards market focus.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Liverpool4

Avg corners for

Fulham5.67

Liverpool7.67

Avg total corners

Fulham8.33

Liverpool3.33

Avg yellow cards

Fulham1.33

Liverpool16.67

Avg shots

Fulham16.67

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.5 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Liverpool's average of 16.67 shots and Fulham's 16.67 shots per game show active attacking play. Liverpool's 3.33 yellow cards per match and Fulham's 1.33 yellows highlight contrasting disciplinary profiles. The high shot volume and sustained pressure increase fouling risk, especially in wide areas and defensive transitions, justifying the cards market focus.

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Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictions related match prediction cards betting research corners trends hub player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.5 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Liverpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Fulham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

3.7

Check odds @ 3.7

Liverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.26

Check odds @ 1.26

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Fulham to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

The Cards market reflects Liverpool's aggressive style and Fulham's tactical fouling, with Liverpool averaging over three yellows per game. The current align with a 61.3% , indicating a fair price without significant value concerns. The match's tactical context supports this pricing as reasonable rather than overpriced or undervalued.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Liverpool

WDD

Last 51W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 0L

04 Sep 2026A Ipswich2-0

29 Aug 2026H Nottingham Forest2-2

23 Aug 2026A Newcastle2-2

Fulham

LLL

Last 50W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 3L

05 Sep 2026H Crystal Palace2-3

30 Aug 2026A Sunderland0-1

24 Aug 2026H Chelsea2-3

Best odds for this sectionLiverpool to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

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Fulham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

3.7

Check odds @ 3.7

Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

Liverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.26

Check odds @ 1.26

Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Fulham to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

DrawBetUK guide price · model 20%

Check odds @ 5

Liverpool's recent form includes only one win in six matches, reflecting frustration that often leads to more fouls and bookings. Fulham's zero points and defensive posture contribute to tactical fouling to break Liverpool's rhythm. These trends support a higher card count as both teams engage in intense, high-pressure play.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Liverpool2

Avg goals scored

Fulham1.33

Liverpool1.33

Avg goals conceded

Fulham2.33

Liverpool67%

BTTS rate

Fulham67%

Liverpool67%

Over 2.5 goals

Fulham67%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%

1.14

Check odds @ 1.14

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Both teams have a 67% rate for over 2.5 goals and BTTS in recent matches, indicating open play and attacking intent. However, this fixture's focus on defensive pressure and tactical fouling suggests goals may come with interruptions, supporting a higher card count alongside goal opportunities.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Liverpool wins

4Draws

1Fulham wins

11 Apr 2026Liverpool v Fulham2-0

04 Jan 2026Fulham v Liverpool2-2

06 Apr 2025Fulham v Liverpool3-2

14 Dec 2024Liverpool v Fulham2-2

21 Apr 2024Fulham v Liverpool1-3

24 Jan 2024Fulham v Liverpool1-1

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Liverpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Fulham to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

DrawBetUK guide price · model 20%

Check odds @ 5

The last ten meetings between Liverpool and Fulham have averaged 3.6 goals per game, indicating open contests with attacking intent. While this supports an active match, the disciplinary aspect is less directly influenced by H2H data, though the intensity of prior fixtures suggests a moderately supportive background for a higher card count.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
6	Liverpool	5	3	1	2	0	2
19	Fulham	0	3	0	0	3	-3

Liverpool's sixth-place position fighting for Champions League qualification adds pressure to perform, often translating into aggressive challenges and disciplinary risks. Fulham's nineteenth place and defensive approach increase their reliance on tactical fouling, making the cards market relevant given the competition stakes and team motivations.

Season team stats

Premier League

Liverpool3

Played

Fulham3

Liverpool2

Avg goals for

Fulham1.3

Liverpool1.3

Avg goals against

Fulham2.3

Liverpool1

Clean sheets

Fulham0

Best odds for this sectionLiverpool to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

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Fulham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

3.7

Check odds @ 3.7

Liverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.26

Check odds @ 1.26

Fulham to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

6.25

Check odds @ 6.25

Liverpool's season average of 3.33 yellow cards per match and Fulham's 1.33 yellows reflect contrasting disciplinary tendencies. Liverpool's defensive vulnerabilities and Fulham's reactive style increase the likelihood of fouls and cards, reinforcing the cards market as a strong season-long trend continuing into this fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Liverpool Over 2.5

67%Fulham Over 2.5

3.6H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 3.6, with both teams frequently involved in open, attacking games. This tempo creates numerous defensive challenges and transitions, increasing the chance of fouls and cards. The trend suggests a lively match with multiple goal and card incidents, supporting the cards market focus.

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Betting context

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Football Stats Hub

Liverpool v Fulham Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Liverpool v Fulham Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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