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Premier League | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Bournemouth v Brentford Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bournemouth host Brentford in a Premier League clash marked by contrasting styles and recent unbeaten runs. Bournemouth have remained undefeated in their last seven matches, often drawing due to their aggressive attacking but vulnerable defense. Brentford arrive unbeaten in nine straight meetings against Bournemouth, relying on clinical counter-attacks spearheaded by Igor Thiago, who has 18 league goals this season. Both teams have scored 44 goals this campaign, setting up a high-scoring encounter where Bournemouth's high shot volume meets Brentford's efficient finishing. The match promises to be a tactical battle with attacking flair and defensive frailties on display.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in Bournemouth's last six home matches across competitions.
  • Brentford have netted two or more goals in 67% of their last six Premier League away games.
  • Five of the last six Bournemouth-Brentford meetings featured Over 2.5 goals.
  • Bournemouth average 13.7 shots per game, while Brentford rely on Igor Thiago's clinical finishing.
  • Both sides have identical season goal tallies of 44, highlighting balanced attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams to Score pick aligns with strong attacking trends and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Bournemouth's aggressive style yields high shot volumes but also concedes 1.67 goals per game, while Brentford's efficient counter-attacks and 18-goal striker Igor Thiago boost scoring chances. The model assigns a 76% probability, well above the market's 63.6% implied chance, indicating clear value. Recent matches and head-to-head data reinforce the likelihood of goals at both ends. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Probability76% chance of BTTS
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance63.6%
Neutral
Recent FormBournemouth BTTS rate 100%, Brentford 67%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals5 of last 6 matches Over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilityBournemouth concedes 1.67 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess potent attacking capabilities and have shown defensive frailties, making Both Teams to Score a compelling pick. Bournemouth's high shot volume combined with Brentford's clinical finishing, especially from Igor Thiago, suggests goals at both ends. The match's recent history and current form data support this outcome, promising an open and competitive game.

Main risk

They’re also aggressive — not in a reckless way, but in a “we’re coming at you again” way.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“The tactical contrast between Bournemouth's aggressive possession and Brentford's sharp counter-attacks sets the stage for goals from both sides. Igor Thiago's finishing prowess against a vulnerable Bournemouth defense is a key factor in this lively fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in Bournemouth's last six home matches across competitions.

Brentford have netted two or more goals in 67% of their last six Premier League away games.

Five of the last six Bournemouth-Brentford meetings featured Over 2.5 goals.

Bournemouth average 13.7 shots per game, while Brentford rely on Igor Thiago's clinical finishing.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last ten meetings between Bournemouth and Brentford, the average goals per game is 2.8, with five of the last six matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This recent trend suggests a high-tempo game with both teams contributing to the scoreline.
  • The pattern supports expectations of an open match with multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals markets.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bournemouth1.33
Avg goals scored
Brentford1.67
Bournemouth1.67
Avg goals conceded
Brentford0.67
Bournemouth100%
BTTS rate
Brentford67%
Bournemouth67%
Over 2.5 goals
Brentford33%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both Bournemouth and Brentford have shown strong scoring records this season, each netting 44 goals. Bournemouth's last six home matches all featured both teams scoring, while Brentford have scored multiple goals in two-thirds of their recent away games. The fixture's history of high-scoring encounters, including five of the last six meetings exceeding 2.5 goals, supports the BTTS outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Brentford Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Brentford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 4/7 with an implied chance of 63.6%, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating positive value. This suggests the market may underestimate the likelihood of both sides scoring given their attacking profiles and defensive records. The price is attractive and justifies standard staking without caution.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bournemouth5.33
Avg corners for
Brentford5.67
Bournemouth11.67
Avg total corners
Brentford9.33
Bournemouth2.67
Avg yellow cards
Brentford2.67
Bournemouth13
Avg shots
Brentford20
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +12.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Bournemouth averages 13 shots and 5.33 corners per game, reflecting their aggressive attacking style and territorial control. Brentford counters with 20 shots and 5.67 corners per game, emphasizing efficiency and set-piece threat. Both teams average 2.67 yellow cards, indicating moderate discipline levels that could influence match tempo and physicality.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bournemouth

DDL
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Newcastle2-2
29 Aug 2026H Everton1-1
23 Aug 2026A Manchester City1-2

Brentford

DDW
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
05 Sep 2026H Sunderland1-1
30 Aug 2026A Leeds1-1
22 Aug 2026H Tottenham3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Brentford Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Brentford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Bournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last seven matches but have drawn four of their last five league games, often scoring but struggling to secure wins. Brentford remain unbeaten in nine straight meetings against Bournemouth and have a strong recent away scoring record, netting multiple goals in 67% of their last six away matches. Both teams' recent form data supports a match where both sides find the net.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Bournemouth wins
3Draws
7Brentford wins
03 Mar 2026Bournemouth v Brentford0-0
27 Dec 2025Brentford v Bournemouth4-1
26 Aug 2025Bournemouth v Brentford0-2
15 Mar 2025Bournemouth v Brentford1-2
09 Nov 2024Brentford v Bournemouth3-2
11 May 2024Bournemouth v Brentford1-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Brentford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Bournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Brentford have been unbeaten in their last nine meetings against Bournemouth, indicating a psychological and tactical edge. The head-to-head matches have frequently produced goals, with five of the last six featuring over 2.5 goals. While this history supports Brentford's resilience, it also highlights the likelihood of both teams scoring, reinforcing the BTTS selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Bournemouth3
Played
Brentford3
Bournemouth1.3
Avg goals for
Brentford1.7
Bournemouth1.7
Avg goals against
Brentford0.7
Bournemouth0
Clean sheets
Brentford1
Best odds for this sectionBrentford Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +14.6 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Brentford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Bournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have scored 44 goals this season, demonstrating balanced attacking potency. Bournemouth concedes 1.67 goals per game, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities, while Brentford concedes fewer at 1.26 per game but compensates with efficient finishing. The season-long statistics highlight a fixture likely to feature goals at both ends, consistent with the BTTS market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Brentford531203
15Bournemouth23021-1
Bournemouth sit 15th with 2 points, while Brentford are 5th with 5 points early in the season. Although standings show Brentford in a stronger position, the league table pressure is moderate at this stage. The match's significance lies more in momentum and tactical matchups than immediate table implications, with both sides eager to assert control.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Bournemouth Over 2.5
33%Brentford Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings between Bournemouth and Brentford, the average goals per game is 2.8, with five of the last six matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This recent trend suggests a high-tempo game with both teams contributing to the scoreline. The pattern supports expectations of an open match with multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals markets.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bournemouth v Brentford prediction

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