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Premier League | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Chelsea v Hull City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier League clash between Chelsea and Hull City presents a tactical contrast with Chelsea's possession control and high pass accuracy against Hull City's aggressive pressing and counter-attacking threat. Chelsea's technical control and shot volume aim to break down Hull's defense, which has shown vulnerability to through balls. Hull City's high-intensity defensive style and transition pace pose a genuine threat, making this a high-stakes encounter where discipline and composure will be crucial for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Chelsea averages 2.67 yellow cards per match, reflecting a physical approach despite technical style.
  • Hull City also averages 2.67 yellow cards per game, indicating aggressive defensive tactics.
  • Both teams' aggressive styles and pressing suggest a high likelihood of multiple cards.
  • Recent form shows Chelsea's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, often accompanied by increased fouling and cards.
  • Historical data and tactical setups point to a competitive, physical game with refereeing interventions likely.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 72.7% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, supported by both teams' aggressive defensive styles and high foul rates. Chelsea's technical control is met by Hull City's pressing intensity, increasing the likelihood of cautions. Player data shows key attackers like L. Millar carry card risk, reinforcing the bet. The balance of possession and counter-pressing tactics typically leads to more fouls and disciplinary actions, justifying in this market.

Team foul averagesChelsea 2.67, Hull City 2.67 yellows per match
Strong positive
Player card riskL. Millar high card risk (1.8 yellows/90)
Positive
Tactical styleAggressive pressing and counter-attacks increase fouls
Strong positive
Match intensityHigh-stakes cup tie with physical defensive battles
Positive
Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“The duel between Chelsea's technical control and Hull City's aggressive counter-pressing sets the stage for a high-card match, with both sides likely to commit tactical fouls to disrupt rhythm.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Chelsea averages 2.67 yellow cards per match, reflecting a physical approach despite technical style.

Hull City also averages 2.67 yellow cards per game, indicating aggressive defensive tactics.

Both teams' aggressive styles and pressing suggest a high likelihood of multiple cards.

Recent form shows Chelsea's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, often accompanied by increased fouling and cards.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.89, indicating open games with attacking intent.
  • This tempo and openness typically correlate with increased fouls and cards as defensive lines are tested and tactical fouling is employed to disrupt attacks.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Chelsea3.67
Avg corners for
Hull City2
Chelsea9.67
Avg total corners
Hull City7.33
Chelsea2.67
Avg yellow cards
Hull City2.67
Chelsea16
Avg shots
Hull City8.33
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Chelsea averages 3.67 corners and 16 shots per game, reflecting sustained attacking pressure that often forces fouls and tactical fouling from Hull City, who average 2.67 yellow cards per match. The combination of high shot volume and defensive aggression supports the likelihood of multiple cards.

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Useful next reads

more Premier League analysisChelsea v Hull City predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chelsea2.67
Avg goals scored
Hull City1
Chelsea2.33
Avg goals conceded
Hull City0
Chelsea100%
BTTS rate
Hull City0%
Chelsea100%
Over 2.5 goals
Hull City0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2
Check odds @ 2
Chelsea's matches show a 100% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, while Hull City has a more defensive profile with 0% BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates. This contrast suggests open play from Chelsea and defensive resilience from Hull, likely increasing fouls and cards as Chelsea presses aggressively.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Chelsea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
The Over 3.5 Cards market is attractively positioned given the model's 72.7% probability. Both teams' average card counts and tactical approaches align with this expectation, indicating a strong value angle without current price warnings or stake reductions.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chelsea

LWW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Arsenal1-2
30 Aug 2026H Brighton4-3
24 Aug 2026A Fulham3-2

Hull City

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
05 Sep 2026H Aston Villa0-0
29 Aug 2026A Coventry1-0
22 Aug 2026H Manchester United2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Chelsea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Chelsea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Recent form data shows Chelsea's matches consistently feature high goal and card counts, with Chelsea averaging 2.67 yellows and Hull City 2.67 yellows per match. This pattern of aggressive play and disciplinary actions underlines the strong likelihood of Over 3.5 Cards in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

9Chelsea wins
0Draws
0Hull City wins
13 Feb 2026Hull City v Chelsea0-4
25 Jan 2020Hull City v Chelsea1-2
16 Feb 2018Chelsea v Hull City4-0
22 Jan 2017Chelsea v Hull City2-0
01 Oct 2016Hull City v Chelsea0-2
22 Mar 2015Hull City v Chelsea2-3
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.8 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Chelsea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The nine previous meetings between Chelsea and Hull City have averaged 2.89 goals per game, reflecting open contests. While this supports attacking play, it also suggests defensive pressure and tactical fouling, which contribute to higher card counts, moderately supporting the Over 3.5 Cards selection.
Season team stats

Premier League

Chelsea3
Played
Hull City3
Chelsea2.7
Avg goals for
Hull City1
Chelsea2.3
Avg goals against
Hull City0
Chelsea0
Clean sheets
Hull City3
Best odds for this sectionHull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Load more odds for this section
Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
Chelsea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Chelsea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Season-long statistics reveal Chelsea's aggressive but technical style results in frequent fouls and cards, averaging 2.67 yellows per game. Hull City's defensive aggression mirrors this, also averaging 2.67 yellows. These sustained trends support the expectation of a high-card match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Hull City732103
4Chelsea632011
Both teams sit near the top of their respective leagues, with Chelsea 4th and Hull City 3rd, indicating competitive form and high stakes. This competitive pressure often leads to increased fouling and disciplinary actions as both sides seek to assert control.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Chelsea Over 2.5
0%Hull City Over 2.5
2.89H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.89, indicating open games with attacking intent. This tempo and openness typically correlate with increased fouls and cards as defensive lines are tested and tactical fouling is employed to disrupt attacks.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Chelsea v Hull City prediction

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