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Las Palmas crestLas Palmas
v
Burgos crestBurgos

Segunda División | Sun 20 Sep, 17:30

Las Palmas v Burgos Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Las Palmas and Burgos meet in a Segunda División clash where both sides have shown moderate scoring outputs and a cautious approach in recent matches. Las Palmas ranks 5th with 10 points, while Burgos sits 8th with 8 points, reflecting competitive but balanced form. Both teams average just over one goal per game, and their defensive solidity suggests a tactical battle likely to limit goal-scoring opportunities. The match is poised to be a tight contest with neither side heavily favored to dominate offensively, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Las Palmas and Burgos average around 1.4 and 1.6 goals per game respectively, indicating modest scoring rates.
  • Both teams have a relatively low Over 2.5 Goals occurrence: 40% for Las Palmas and 60% for Burgos.
  • Head-to-head meetings average just 0.67 goals per game, highlighting historically low-scoring matches.
  • Las Palmas averages 9.8 shots per game with 3.8 on target, Burgos 11 shots with 2.8 on target, showing moderate attacking threat.
  • Discipline is moderate with Burgos averaging 2.2 yellow cards per game and Las Palmas 1.2, suggesting controlled aggression.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.5% chance, supported by both teams' modest scoring averages and historically low head-to-head goal totals. Las Palmas and Burgos show balanced defensive records conceding around 1.2 goals per game, and their recent form includes a lower frequency of high-scoring matches. The average shots and shots on target indicate moderate offensive pressure but not enough to consistently breach defenses multiple times per game. This statistical profile aligns with a tactical match likely to produce fewer goals, justifying the Under 2.5 Goals pick at a fair price.

Model Probability61.5% chance for Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Recent Goals DataLas Palmas 1.4, Burgos 1.6 goals per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals0.67 average goals per meeting
Strong positive
Shots and Shots on TargetModerate shot volume with limited accuracy
Positive
Defensive RecordsBoth concede about 1.2 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture is likely to be a tactical and balanced encounter with both Las Palmas and Burgos showing solid defensive organization and modest attacking output. The data supports a low-scoring game, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible choice. The teams’ recent form and head-to-head history suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight match with few goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical balance and scoring trends

“Las Palmas and Burgos both emphasize defensive stability and measured attacking play, which historically results in low-scoring games. The statistical trends and player roles indicate a match where goals will be hard to come by.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Las Palmas and Burgos average around 1.4 and 1.6 goals per game respectively, indicating modest scoring rates.

Head-to-head meetings average just 0.67 goals per game, highlighting historically low-scoring matches.

Las Palmas averages 9.8 shots per game with 3.8 on target, Burgos 11 shots with 2.8 on target, showing moderate attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 0.67, demonstrating a clear trend towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a slow tempo and defensive caution, which aligns with the Under 2.5 Goals expectation for this match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Las Palmas

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Cadiz1-0
04 Sep 2026H Leganes0-0
29 Aug 2026A Girona2-5
22 Aug 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-0
16 Aug 2026H Albacete2-1

Burgos

WDDLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
11 Sep 2026H AD Ceuta FC3-1
06 Sep 2026A Oviedo0-0
31 Aug 2026H Real Sociedad II2-2
23 Aug 2026A Sporting Gijon0-1
16 Aug 2026H Cordoba3-2
Best odds for this sectionLas Palmas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +9.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Burgos to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Las Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Burgos Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form shows Las Palmas with 10 points and Burgos with 8, both scoring and conceding roughly 1.4 to 1.6 goals per game. Las Palmas has a 40% Over 2.5 rate, Burgos 60%, indicating a tendency towards matches with fewer goals, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals pick for this fixture.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Las Palmas1053111
10Burgos852212
Las Palmas sits 5th and Burgos 8th in the Segunda División, both competitive but not dominant offensively. The standings reflect teams capable of tight matches where defensive discipline is prioritized, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Las Palmas1.4
Avg goals scored
Burgos1.6
Las Palmas1.2
Avg goals conceded
Burgos1.2
Las Palmas40%
BTTS rate
Burgos60%
Las Palmas40%
Over 2.5 goals
Burgos60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 61% · edge +0.9 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Both teams average around 1.4 to 1.6 goals per game with Las Palmas and Burgos showing BTTS rates of 40% and 60% respectively. The low head-to-head average of 0.67 goals per match further supports a low-scoring game with limited goal exchanges, suggesting Under 2.5 Goals is the more probable outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLas Palmas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +9.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Burgos to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Las Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67 with a of 61.5%, indicating a small positive . The reflect the balanced scoring and defensive profiles of both teams, making this a price-sensitive but reasonable selection given the statistical backing and tactical context.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Las Palmas wins
4Draws
2Burgos wins
07 Feb 2026Las Palmas v Burgos0-0
07 Sep 2025Burgos v Las Palmas0-0
06 Feb 2023Burgos v Las Palmas0-0
01 Nov 2022Las Palmas v Burgos0-2
13 Feb 2022Las Palmas v Burgos0-2
20 Sep 2021Burgos v Las Palmas0-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Burgos to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Las Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The six previous meetings between Las Palmas and Burgos have produced an average of just 0.67 goals per game, indicating a strong historical pattern of low-scoring matches. This trend supports the Under 2.5 Goals pick, as both teams have struggled to break down each other's defenses in past encounters.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Las Palmas4
Avg corners for
Burgos3
Las Palmas9.4
Avg total corners
Burgos8.5
Las Palmas1.2
Avg yellow cards
Burgos1.75
Las Palmas9.8
Avg shots
Burgos9.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 40% · edge +6.6 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Las Palmas averages 4 corners per game and Burgos 3.6, indicating moderate attacking pressure. Shot volumes are moderate with Las Palmas at 9.8 shots and Burgos at 11 per game, but shot accuracy is limited. Card counts are controlled, with Burgos more prone to fouls, which may influence set-piece opportunities but not necessarily increase goal volume.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Segunda División

Las Palmas5
Played
Burgos5
Las Palmas1.4
Avg goals for
Burgos1.6
Las Palmas1.2
Avg goals against
Burgos1.2
Las Palmas3
Clean sheets
Burgos1
Best odds for this sectionLas Palmas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +9.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Burgos to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Las Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Burgos Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season-long data reveals both teams maintain balanced defensive records conceding about 1.2 goals per game, with modest offensive outputs. This equilibrium supports a low-scoring match scenario, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals market selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Las Palmas Over 2.5
60%Burgos Over 2.5
0.67H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 0.67, demonstrating a clear trend towards low-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a slow tempo and defensive caution, which aligns with the Under 2.5 Goals expectation for this match.

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