Almeria

Celta de Vigo II

Segunda División | Sun 20 Sep, 17:30

Almeria v Celta de Vigo II Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria and Celta de Vigo II meet in the Segunda División with both sides showing moderate attacking output but contrasting defensive records. Almeria ranks 6th with a solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals per game, while Celta de Vigo II sits 14th, allowing 1.6 goals per match. Almeria’s recent form includes tighter scorelines, and Celta de Vigo II has struggled to consistently break down opponents. This fixture promises a tactical battle where defensive solidity could limit goal-scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

Almeria concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating defensive strength
Celta de Vigo II has a higher goals-against rate at 1.6 per game
Almeria’s BTTS rate is low at 20%, suggesting clean sheets are common
Both teams have moderate shot volumes but limited conversion rates
Model projects a 54% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, with positive value at 2.25

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals due to Almeria’s strong defensive record and Celta de Vigo II’s inconsistent attacking threat. Almeria’s low BTTS rate and Celta de Vigo II’s defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match with limited goal-scoring chances. The at 2.25 offer positive value compared to the model’s 54% probability. Both teams’ moderate shot volumes and recent form support a cautious game with fewer goals. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Almeria Defensive Strength0.8 goals conceded per game

Strong positive

Celta de Vigo II Defensive Weakness1.6 goals conceded per game

Neutral

BTTS RatesAlmeria 20%, Celta de Vigo II 40%

Positive

Model Probability54% chance Under 2.5 Goals

Strong positive

Odds Value Edge9.6% positive edge at 2.25 odds

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given Almeria’s disciplined defense and Celta de Vigo II’s inconsistent attack. The match context and recent scoring trends suggest a tactical contest with limited clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring game the most probable outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture’s defensive profiles and recent form strongly indicate a tight game with few goals, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice for cautious bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Almeria concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating defensive strength

Celta de Vigo II has a higher goals-against rate at 1.6 per game

Almeria’s BTTS rate is low at 20%, suggesting clean sheets are common

Both teams have moderate shot volumes but limited conversion rates

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last five matches, Almeria’s games have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Celta de Vigo II’s is 60%.
The combined trend suggests a moderate tempo with occasional goal bursts but a general tendency towards fewer goals.
This sample indicates that while goals can occur, the fixture is more likely to stay under 2.5 due to Almeria’s defensive discipline.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Almeria4

Avg corners for

Celta de Vigo II3.6

Almeria10

Avg total corners

Celta de Vigo II8

Almeria1.8

Avg yellow cards

Celta de Vigo II3.2

Almeria11

Avg shots

Celta de Vigo II13.2

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

2.1

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Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 46%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Both teams average around 3.3 corners per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure but not overwhelming control. Almeria averages fewer yellow cards (2) compared to Celta de Vigo II’s 3.25, suggesting a slightly more disciplined approach. Shot volumes are moderate, with Almeria averaging 9.67 shots and Celta de Vigo II 10.5, but conversion rates remain modest, supporting a controlled tempo.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Almeria1.6

Avg goals scored

Celta de Vigo II1.4

Almeria0.8

Avg goals conceded

Celta de Vigo II1.6

Almeria20%

BTTS rate

Celta de Vigo II40%

Almeria40%

Over 2.5 goals

Celta de Vigo II60%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10.5 pts

2.3

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Almeria’s low BTTS rate of 20% and Celta de Vigo II’s moderate 40% indicate that clean sheets are common, especially for Almeria. Combined with Almeria’s 1.6 goals scored per game and Celta de Vigo II’s 1.4, the data points to a match with limited goal exchanges and a tendency towards under 2.5 goals.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

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Celta de Vigo II Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 39%

4.15

Check odds @ 4.15

Celta de Vigo II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 7

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Almeria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.45

Check odds @ 1.45

Almeria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.25, reflecting a 44.4% implied chance versus the model’s 54% probability. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game, making the bet a worthwhile consideration without major price sensitivity.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Almeria

WWLLW

Last 53W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 0D 2L

12 Sep 2026A Cordoba2-0

06 Sep 2026H Cadiz3-2

29 Aug 2026A Sabadell0-1

23 Aug 2026A Tenerife0-1

17 Aug 2026H Eldense3-0

Celta de Vigo II

LWLWD

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 1D 2L

14 Sep 2026H Eibar0-4

05 Sep 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-0

31 Aug 2026H Castellón1-2

24 Aug 2026H FC Andorra4-2

15 Aug 2026A Cadiz0-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +14.5 pts

2.62

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Celta de Vigo II Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 39%

4.15

Check odds @ 4.15

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

Celta de Vigo II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 7

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Almeria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.45

Check odds @ 1.45

Almeria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Recent form data shows Almeria averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, reflecting a strong defensive setup. Celta de Vigo II scores 1.4 but concedes 1.6, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Almeria’s low BTTS rate and Celta de Vigo II’s higher over 2.5 rate (60%) suggest Almeria’s defense may limit scoring, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Almeria wins

0Draws

0Celta de Vigo II wins

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

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Celta de Vigo II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 7

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Almeria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.45

Check odds @ 1.45

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

No previous meetings between Almeria and Celta de Vigo II exist to inform this matchup. Therefore, current season form, defensive records, and player performances provide the primary basis for expectations rather than historical head-to-head data.

Season team stats

Segunda División

Almeria5

Played

Celta de Vigo II5

Almeria1.6

Avg goals for

Celta de Vigo II1.4

Almeria0.8

Avg goals against

Celta de Vigo II1.6

Almeria2

Clean sheets

Celta de Vigo II2

Best odds for this sectionCelta de Vigo II Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts

4.15

Check odds @ 4.15

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Celta de Vigo II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 7

Almeria to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.45

Check odds @ 1.45

Almeria Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Season-long stats reveal Almeria’s solid defensive record with fewer goals conceded and a low BTTS rate, reinforcing their ability to keep matches tight. Celta de Vigo II’s higher goals conceded and over 2.5 goals rate reflect a more open style but inconsistent finishing. These contrasting profiles support a cautious game with fewer total goals.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
8	Almeria	9	5	3	0	2	4
15	Celta de Vigo II	7	5	2	1	2	-1

Almeria’s 6th place standing with 9 points contrasts with Celta de Vigo II’s 14th place and 7 points, indicating a slight quality and form edge for Almeria. While league position is background context, Almeria’s higher rank aligns with their defensive solidity and ability to control matches, favoring a low-scoring outcome.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Almeria Over 2.5

60%Celta de Vigo II Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Over the last five matches, Almeria’s games have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Celta de Vigo II’s is 60%. The combined trend suggests a moderate tempo with occasional goal bursts but a general tendency towards fewer goals. This sample indicates that while goals can occur, the fixture is more likely to stay under 2.5 due to Almeria’s defensive discipline.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Almeria v Celta de Vigo II Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Almeria

Celta de Vigo II

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Almeria v Celta de Vigo II Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Almeria

Celta de Vigo II

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