AD Ceuta FC

Valladolid

Segunda División | Sun 20 Sep, 15:15

AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features AD Ceuta FC hosting Valladolid, with Valladolid showing stronger form and defensive solidity. Valladolid has accumulated 4 points while Ceuta remains without points, reflecting a gap in recent performances. Valladolid's more disciplined defensive record and ability to create quality chances suggest they can control the game tactically. Ceuta's struggles at the back and lack of scoring threat add to Valladolid's advantage, making them favorites to secure the win in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

Valladolid to Win

Valladolid holds a 65.9% to win, indicating strong statistical backing.
AD Ceuta FC has conceded 3 goals per game recently, while Valladolid concedes only 1.4.
Both teams average similar shot volumes, but Valladolid has better shot accuracy and defensive resilience.
Valladolid ranks 18th with 4 points; Ceuta is bottom with no points, showing form disparity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Valladolid to win with a 65.9% chance, supported by their superior defensive record and more consistent point accumulation. Valladolid concedes fewer goals and maintains solid shot-on-target numbers, indicating efficient defense and attack balance. Ceuta's poor defensive form and zero points so far weaken their chances. The price offers positive value with a 27.7% edge, making Valladolid a statistically justified pick without price sensitivity concerns.

Model Win Probability65.9%

Strong positive

Defensive StrengthValladolid concedes 1.4 goals/game vs Ceuta's 3

Strong positive

Recent PointsValladolid 4, Ceuta 0

Positive

Shot AccuracyValladolid averages 3 SOT/game vs Ceuta's 2.8

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Valladolid's superior defensive stability and recent point accumulation give them a tactical and statistical edge over Ceuta, who have struggled to score and defend. This combination makes Valladolid the logical choice to secure victory in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage

“Valladolid's defensive discipline and ability to generate quality shooting opportunities underpin their strong winning chances against a struggling Ceuta side.”

Key Data Signals

Valladolid to Win evidence

Valladolid holds a 65.9% to win, indicating strong statistical backing.

AD Ceuta FC has conceded 3 goals per game recently, while Valladolid concedes only 1.4.

Both teams average similar shot volumes, but Valladolid has better shot accuracy and defensive resilience.

Valladolid ranks 18th with 4 points; Ceuta is bottom with no points, showing form disparity.

What To Watch In The Data

Valladolid to Win notes

In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3, indicating moderate scoring potential.
However, recent form and defensive records suggest this match may see fewer goals, with a trend towards under 2.5 goals given Valladolid's defensive discipline and Ceuta's scoring struggles.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AD Ceuta FC0.4

Avg goals scored

Valladolid0.4

AD Ceuta FC3

Avg goals conceded

Valladolid1.4

AD Ceuta FC40%

BTTS rate

Valladolid20%

AD Ceuta FC60%

Over 2.5 goals

Valladolid20%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 56% · edge +0.6 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%

Check odds @ 2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 2

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Both teams have low scoring rates, with Ceuta averaging 0.4 goals and Valladolid similarly low. Ceuta concedes heavily, but Valladolid's defensive solidity limits high-scoring outcomes. The BTTS rates are low, especially for Valladolid at 20%, indicating a likely low-scoring match with limited goal exchanges.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickValladolid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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Valladolid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 2

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

The current for Valladolid to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model assigning a 65.9% chance compared to an implied market chance of 38.2%. This significant suggests the market underestimates Valladolid's chances, making the selection attractive at the available price.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AD Ceuta FC6

Avg corners for

Valladolid4.67

AD Ceuta FC9

Avg total corners

Valladolid8.67

AD Ceuta FC2.25

Avg yellow cards

Valladolid3.33

AD Ceuta FC13.5

Avg shots

Valladolid12.33

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.8 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Ceuta averages more corners (5.2) than Valladolid (3.6), reflecting their attacking pressure despite defensive frailty. Valladolid's slightly higher shots on target (3 vs 2.8) and higher yellow card average (2.8 vs 2) suggest a disciplined but assertive approach, balancing pressure and defensive control.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AD Ceuta FC

LLLLL

Last 50W 0D 5L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 5L

11 Sep 2026A Burgos1-3

05 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II0-2

30 Aug 2026A Mallorca0-3

22 Aug 2026H Las Palmas0-2

15 Aug 2026A FC Andorra1-5

Valladolid

LWDLL

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 3L

13 Sep 2026H Oviedo0-3

05 Sep 2026H FC Andorra1-0

30 Aug 2026A Cadiz1-1

23 Aug 2026A Eibar0-1

15 Aug 2026A Mallorca0-2

Market aligned with main pickValladolid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Valladolid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Valladolid's recent form shows 4 points gained with a more stable defense conceding 1.4 goals per game, contrasting with Ceuta's zero points and 3 goals conceded per game. This form gap underlines Valladolid's momentum and defensive improvements, reinforcing their winning chances.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0AD Ceuta FC wins

0Draws

2Valladolid wins

17 Jan 2026AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid0-3

15 Aug 2025Valladolid v AD Ceuta FC3-0

Market aligned with main pickValladolid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 2

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

The two previous meetings between these teams have averaged 3 goals per game, suggesting some attacking openness historically. However, given the current defensive form and tactical setups, this historical data offers only weak support for expecting a high-scoring game, serving more as background context.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Segunda División

AD Ceuta FC5

Played

Valladolid0

AD Ceuta FC0.4

Avg goals for

Valladolid-

AD Ceuta FC3

Avg goals against

Valladolid-

AD Ceuta FC0

Clean sheets

Valladolid-

Market aligned with main pickValladolid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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Valladolid Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Over the season, Valladolid exhibits a balanced attack and stronger defense, conceding fewer goals and maintaining steady shot accuracy. Ceuta's season stats reveal defensive vulnerabilities and a lack of goal production, making Valladolid's win more probable based on season-long performance.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
18	Valladolid	4	5	1	1	3	-5
22	AD Ceuta FC	0	5	0	0	5	-13

Valladolid sits 18th with 4 points, while Ceuta is bottom with no points, reflecting the pressure on Ceuta to improve and Valladolid's relative stability. The standings highlight Valladolid's better start and the challenge Ceuta faces to avoid relegation, adding context to the match stakes.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AD Ceuta FC Over 2.5

20%Valladolid Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3, indicating moderate scoring potential. However, recent form and defensive records suggest this match may see fewer goals, with a trend towards under 2.5 goals given Valladolid's defensive discipline and Ceuta's scoring struggles.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid Stats

Match Report

Valladolid to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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AD Ceuta FC

Valladolid

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Football Stats Hub

AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid Stats

Match Report

Valladolid to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

AD Ceuta FC

Valladolid

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