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Juventude crestJuventude
v
Ceara crestCeara

Serie B | Sun 28 Jun, 20:00

Juventude v Ceara Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 01:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Juventude face Ceara in Serie B on Sun 28 Jun, 20:00. Juventude host Ceará at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi on Sunday 28 June at 20:00 in Série B. Juventude are defensively secure, conceding only eight goals in fourteen matches, and have won their last four consecutive matches against Ceará.

BT4Y best bet

Juventude to Win Rationale Juventude are structurally well-placed to control this matchup at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

  • At 1/1, Juventude Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 73%.
  • Juventude's strong home presence and superior defensive record give them clear status as structural favourites in the 1X2 market.
  • Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ceara.
  • Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Juventude Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Juventude sit 5 in the table, while Ceara sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 73% for Juventude Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ceara. Juventude's strong home presence and superior defensive record give them clear status as structural favourites in the 1X2 market.

Model chance vs price73% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Strong positive
Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Juventude's strong home presence and superior defensive record give.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Juventude Win is the preferred angle because juventude's strong home presence and superior defensive record give them clear status as structural favourites in the 1X2 market. Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ceara. Ceará can carry threat, but they also leave doors open.

Main risk

Ceará can carry threat, but they also leave doors open.

Key Data Signals

Juventude Win evidence

Juventude's strong home presence and superior defensive record give them clear status as structural favourites in the 1X2.

Juventude have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Ceara.

Juventude have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Juventude Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Juventude sit 5 in the table, while Ceara sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventude Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Juventude5.6
    Avg corners for
    Ceara5.2
    Juventude8.4
    Avg total corners
    Ceara8
    Juventude2
    Avg yellow cards
    Ceara2.8
    Juventude15.2
    Avg shots
    Ceara12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 52% · edge +9.8 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Juventude1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Ceara1
    Juventude0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Ceara1.4
    Juventude20%
    BTTS rate
    Ceara80%
    Juventude60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Ceara60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 48% · edge +19.1 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 49% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Juventude to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Juventude

    WWLWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    21 Jun 2026A São Bernardo1-0
    14 Jun 2026H Ponte Preta3-0
    06 Jun 2026A Operario-PR1-2
    30 May 2026H America Mineiro3-0
    24 May 2026H Sport Recife0-1

    Ceara

    LDWLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    20 Jun 2026H Botafogo SP0-1
    16 Jun 2026A Criciuma1-1
    11 Jun 2026H Avai2-1
    31 May 2026H Operario-PR1-2
    23 May 2026A Novorizontino1-2
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 49% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
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    Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Juventude wins
    1Draws
    3Ceara wins
    30 Aug 2025Ceara v Juventude0-1
    12 Apr 2025Juventude v Ceara2-1
    25 Nov 2023Ceara v Juventude1-3
    23 Jul 2023Juventude v Ceara1-0
    13 Nov 2022Ceara v Juventude4-1
    24 Jul 2022Juventude v Ceara1-0
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 49% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Juventude to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Juventude15
    Played
    Ceara15
    Juventude1.1
    Avg goals for
    Ceara1
    Juventude0.5
    Avg goals against
    Ceara1.2
    Juventude10
    Clean sheets
    Ceara3
    Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 49% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Season data supports Juventude to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Juventude25157448
    14Ceara1715456-3
    Juventude sit in position 5, while Ceara sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the Juventude Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Juventude Over 2.5
    60%Ceara Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Juventude sit at 60% and Ceara sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.