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Junior crestJunior
v
Once Caldas crestOnce Caldas

Primera A | Mon 24 Aug, 02:15

Junior v Once Caldas Stats

Data last updated: Tue 25 Aug 2026, 14:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A clash features Junior hosting Once Caldas, with Once Caldas currently positioned higher in the standings and showing stronger recent form. Once Caldas has scored an average of 2 goals per game recently, while Junior has struggled offensively, averaging less than one goal. The away side's attacking momentum and Junior's lower scoring output set the stage for a competitive match where Once Caldas looks to capitalize on their offensive edge and secure a vital away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Once Caldas to Win

  • Once Caldas leads recent form with 6 points versus Junior's 4 points.
  • Once Caldas averages 2 goals per game, Junior only 0.8, indicating stronger attack.
  • Once Caldas has a higher BTTS rate at 80%, Junior only 20%.
  • Once Caldas averages more shots (18.6) and shots on target (6.8) than Junior.
  • Once Caldas ranks 9th in the league, Junior 18th, reflecting competitive gap.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Once Caldas to win based on their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and offensive pressure metrics. With a 55.4% chance against an implied market chance of 25%, the is significant. Once Caldas' attacking players like H. Moreno contribute high shot volumes and goal threats, reinforcing the model's . The data quality is solid, supporting a confident stance on the away win without price sensitivity concerns.

Model Chance55.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance25%
Strong positive
Value Edge30.4%
Strong positive
Recent FormOnce Caldas better with 6 points vs Junior's 4
Positive
Goal ScoringOnce Caldas 2.0 goals/game vs Junior 0.8
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Once Caldas' recent attacking form and higher league standing give them a tactical and statistical edge over Junior. Their ability to generate more shots and convert chances makes them the favored side to secure victory in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Once Caldas demonstrate clear offensive superiority and momentum, making them the logical pick to win despite playing away. Their attacking players consistently create and convert chances, which should be decisive.”

Key Data Signals

Once Caldas to Win evidence

Once Caldas leads recent form with 6 points versus Junior's 4 points.

Once Caldas averages 2 goals per game, Junior only 0.8, indicating stronger attack.

Once Caldas has a higher BTTS rate at 80%, Junior only 20%.

Once Caldas averages more shots (18.6) and shots on target (6.8) than Junior.

What To Watch In The Data

Once Caldas to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Once Caldas' recent matches featuring a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals.
  • This trend suggests a moderately high-scoring game with attacking intent from the away side.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Junior5.4
Avg corners for
Once Caldas6
Junior10.8
Avg total corners
Once Caldas11
Junior2.6
Avg yellow cards
Once Caldas2.2
Junior15.6
Avg shots
Once Caldas18.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +2.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Once Caldas averages more corners and shots on target than Junior, indicating territorial control and sustained attacking pressure. Both teams have moderate card averages, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Junior0.8
Avg goals scored
Once Caldas2
Junior0.8
Avg goals conceded
Once Caldas1.4
Junior20%
BTTS rate
Once Caldas80%
Junior40%
Over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Once Caldas' high BTTS rate of 80% and Junior's lower 20% suggest a match leaning towards goals from the away side, with a strong likelihood both teams could score. The goal averages support an open game with scoring chances for both sides.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOnce Caldas to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Once Caldas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The for Once Caldas to win reflect a significant undervaluation by the market compared to the model's 55.4% win probability. This large suggests the price is attractive and justifies backing the away side with .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Junior

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
02 Aug 2026H Millonarios0-1
26 Jul 2026A Deportes Tolima1-2
08 Jun 2026A Atletico Nacional0-1
03 Jun 2026H Atletico Nacional3-0
24 May 2026H Santa Fe0-0

Once Caldas

DLDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
10 Aug 2026A Jaguares1-1
06 Aug 2026H America de Cali0-1
03 Aug 2026A Santa Fe2-2
27 Jul 2026H Cucuta5-1
14 May 2026A Junior2-2
Market aligned with main pickOnce Caldas to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Once Caldas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Once Caldas has collected 6 points recently, showing better momentum and offensive output compared to Junior's 4 points and lower goal scoring. This form disparity favors Once Caldas to maintain their winning trajectory in this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Junior wins
4Draws
2Once Caldas wins
14 May 2026Junior v Once Caldas2-2
11 May 2026Once Caldas v Junior0-1
12 Feb 2026Once Caldas v Junior2-1
27 Jul 2025Once Caldas v Junior2-2
13 Feb 2025Junior v Once Caldas2-0
01 Dec 2024Junior v Once Caldas1-2
Market aligned with main pickOnce Caldas to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.3 goals per game, indicating moderately open games historically. While the sample is balanced, recent form and attacking stats give Once Caldas a slight edge in this fixture.
Season team stats

Primera A

Junior28
Played
Once Caldas26
Junior1.5
Avg goals for
Once Caldas1.6
Junior1.1
Avg goals against
Once Caldas1.2
Junior9
Clean sheets
Once Caldas4
Market aligned with main pickOnce Caldas to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Once Caldas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Season-long stats show Once Caldas with a stronger attack, averaging more goals and shots per game than Junior, who have struggled to score consistently. This offensive edge aligns with the pick for an away win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Junior351911267
5Once Caldas33198929
9Once Caldas651313
18Junior13012-2
Once Caldas sits comfortably in 9th place with 5 points, while Junior is 18th with no points, reflecting a competitive gap that favors the away team. The standings underscore the pressure on Junior and the of Once Caldas.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Junior Over 2.5
60%Once Caldas Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Once Caldas' recent matches featuring a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals. This trend suggests a moderately high-scoring game with attacking intent from the away side.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.