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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia
v
Saburtalo crestSaburtalo

UEFA Europa League | Thu 20 Aug, 17:00

Jagiellonia v Saburtalo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 07:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jagiellonia Bialystok hosts Saburtalo Tbilisi in a pivotal Europa League playoff first leg at Chorten Arena. Jagiellonia boasts a strong European pedigree, losing just twice in their last 16 UEFA matches and demonstrating solid home form with three wins in four recent qualifiers. Saburtalo, by contrast, struggle away in Europe, with only one win in eight matches and defensive vulnerabilities that have seen them concede multiple goals frequently. Both teams have shown resilience, but Jagiellonia's higher shot volume and home scoring average set the stage for a competitive match with goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Jagiellonia to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Jagiellonia has lost only 2 of their last 16 UEFA matches, showing strong European form.
  • Saburtalo have won just 1 of their last 8 European away matches, conceding multiple goals in half of those games.
  • Jagiellonia averages 12.17 shots per game with 59% inside the penalty area, creating significant scoring chances.
  • Saburtalo scored in 4 of their last 8 European away games, supporting the Both Teams to Score outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Jagiellonia to Win & Both Teams to Score based on Jagiellonia's strong home European record and high shot volume, which contrasts with Saburtalo's defensive struggles and ability to score away. Despite the price being slightly short, the football read remains compelling due to Jagiellonia's average of two goals per home Europa League match and Saburtalo's tendency to concede multiple goals on the road. The model suggests cautious staking given the minor price sensitivity but recognizes the bet's solid football foundation.

Jagiellonia European formStrong, only 2 losses in last 16 UEFA matches
Strong positive
Saburtalo away record1 win in last 8 European away matches, defensive issues
Positive
Shot volumeJagiellonia averages 12.17 shots per game with 59% inside box
Strong positive
Price sensitivitySlightly short price, value edge -0.7%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Jagiellonia's solid European home form combined with Saburtalo's defensive lapses away creates a strong case for a home win with both teams scoring. The hosts' ability to generate high-quality chances inside the box and Saburtalo's resilience in finding the net suggest an open game with goals at both ends.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form rationale

“Jagiellonia's consistent shot creation inside the penalty area and Saburtalo's away defensive vulnerabilities make the combined home win and BTTS market a tactically sound selection for this Europa League playoff first leg.”

Key Data Signals

Jagiellonia to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Jagiellonia has lost only 2 of their last 16 UEFA matches, showing strong European form.

Saburtalo have won just 1 of their last 8 European away matches, conceding multiple goals in half of those games.

Jagiellonia averages 12.17 shots per game with 59% inside the penalty area, creating significant scoring chances.

Saburtalo scored in 4 of their last 8 European away games, supporting the Both Teams to Score outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Jagiellonia to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last five matches involving these teams, the Over 2.5 Goals trend stands at 50%, reflecting a balanced likelihood of multiple goals.
  • Jagiellonia's high shot volume and Saburtalo's defensive concessions suggest a tempo favoring open play and goal-scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jagiellonia1.5
Avg goals scored
Saburtalo1
Jagiellonia1
Avg goals conceded
Saburtalo0.5
Jagiellonia100%
BTTS rate
Saburtalo50%
Jagiellonia50%
Over 2.5 goals
Saburtalo50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 29%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have shown scoring ability recently, with Jagiellonia averaging two goals per home Europa League match and Saburtalo scoring in half of their away European fixtures. Jagiellonia's defensive concessions and Saburtalo's resilience support a scenario where both sides find the net, fitting the BTTS route alongside a home win.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jagiellonia

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
13 Aug 2026A Rangers1-1
06 Aug 2026H Rangers2-1

Saburtalo

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
11 Aug 2026H Larne2-1
04 Aug 2026A Larne0-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 94% · edge -20.4 pts
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
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Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Jagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Jagiellonia has collected 4 points in recent matches, scoring 1.5 goals per game while conceding 1, reflecting competitive but not dominant form. Saburtalo also has 4 points, scoring 1 goal and conceding 0.5 per game, indicating tighter defensive displays but less offensive output. Both teams have a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, supporting an open game with scoring chances for both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 83% · edge -28.7 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Jagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The market prices Jagiellonia to Win & Both Teams to Score at 3.1, implying a 32.3% chance, closely aligned with the model's 31.6% probability. This slight price shortness suggests cautious staking but confirms the market's recognition of Jagiellonia's home strength and Saburtalo's scoring potential. movement towards higher returns would enhance value appeal.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Jagiellonia1
Avg corners for
Saburtalo5.5
Jagiellonia6
Avg total corners
Saburtalo6
Jagiellonia1
Avg yellow cards
Saburtalo2.5
Jagiellonia0
Avg shots
Saburtalo0
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Jagiellonia's attacking pressure is evident in their average of 12.17 shots per game, with a high proportion inside the penalty area, while Saburtalo averages fewer shots but maintains respectable accuracy. Saburtalo's higher average of 5.5 corners per game suggests they can generate set-piece opportunities, and their higher yellow card average indicates a combative approach that may influence game flow and discipline.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Jagiellonia wins
0Draws
0Saburtalo wins
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 74% · edge -29.2 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
There are no previous head-to-head meetings between Jagiellonia and Saburtalo to inform this fixture. Consequently, tactical matchups and recent form data carry greater weight in assessing likely outcomes than historical direct encounters.
Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia2
Played
Saburtalo2
Jagiellonia1.5
Avg goals for
Saburtalo1
Jagiellonia1
Avg goals against
Saburtalo0.5
Jagiellonia0
Clean sheets
Saburtalo1
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 83% · edge -28.7 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
Jagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Jagiellonia's season stats show a strong home scoring average of 2 goals per Europa League match and seven clean sheets in 14 home European fixtures, indicating a blend of attacking potency and defensive solidity. Saburtalo's away stats reveal a tendency to concede multiple goals, with four matches allowing two or more goals, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities that Jagiellonia can exploit.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
50%Saburtalo Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the last five matches involving these teams, the Over 2.5 Goals trend stands at 50%, reflecting a balanced likelihood of multiple goals. Jagiellonia's high shot volume and Saburtalo's defensive concessions suggest a tempo favoring open play and goal-scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Jagiellonia v Saburtalo prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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