Lech Poznan

FC Thun

UEFA Europa League | Thu 20 Aug, 18:00

Lech Poznan v FC Thun Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 07:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lech Poznan host FC Thun in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League playoff, with Lech aiming to leverage their strong home form and recent unbeaten streak. Lech have been prolific at home, averaging 2.2 goals per game while maintaining three consecutive clean sheets, though absences in wide areas slightly temper their attacking options. FC Thun arrive with defensive vulnerabilities, conceding nearly three goals per match away, but retain attacking threat, averaging 1.5 goals per game. This clash pits Lech's home control and control against Thun's resilience and goal-scoring ability, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with both sides likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Lech Poznan to Win & Both Teams to Score

Lech Poznan unbeaten in last 10 home and qualifying matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
FC Thun concede 2.9 goals per game away, with three consecutive heavy defeats before recent cup win.
Thun average 1.5 goals per match, showing ability to score despite defensive issues.
Lech’s attacking threats are distributed among Ishak, Sayyadmanesh, Walemark, and Palma, complicating defensive focus.
Combination bet requires Lech to win and both teams to score, reflecting attacking strengths and defensive gaps.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees a 31.8% chance for Lech Poznan to win with both teams scoring, reflecting Lech's strong home scoring record and Thun's persistent ability to find the net despite defensive frailties. Lech's average of 2.2 goals per game and Thun's 1.5 goals per game create a plausible scenario for a competitive, goal-filled match. The slight price sensitivity advises cautious staking, but the football context supports the combined outcome as a reasonable prediction. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Lech Poznan home scoring2.2 goals per game

Strong positive

Thun away defensive record2.9 goals conceded per game

Negative

Thun scoring ability1.5 goals per game

Positive

Model confidence48%

Neutral

Price sensitivityslightly short odds, reduce stake

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lech Poznan's home form and attacking depth position them well to secure a win, while FC Thun's ability to score despite defensive struggles suggests both teams will find the net. This bet captures the tactical balance of Lech's control and Thun's resilience, supported by recent scoring data for both sides.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal-scoring balance

“Lech Poznan’s consistent goal output and home control combined with Thun’s persistent scoring threat make this a compelling bet that reflects the match’s likely open and competitive nature.”

Key Data Signals

Lech Poznan to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Lech Poznan unbeaten in last 10 home and qualifying matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game.

FC Thun concede 2.9 goals per game away, with three consecutive heavy defeats before recent cup win.

Thun average 1.5 goals per match, showing ability to score despite defensive issues.

Lech’s attacking threats are distributed among Ishak, Sayyadmanesh, Walemark, and Palma, complicating defensive focus.

What To Watch In The Data

Lech Poznan to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

Over the last five matches, the trend favors over 2.5 goals in games involving FC Thun, who have conceded multiple goals away and scored regularly.
Lech Poznan's matches also show a 50% over 2.5 rate, indicating a moderate tempo and goal volume that supports a lively encounter with multiple goals.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lech Poznan3

Avg goals scored

FC Thun2.5

Lech Poznan0

Avg goals conceded

FC Thun1.5

Lech Poznan0%

BTTS rate

FC Thun50%

Lech Poznan50%

Over 2.5 goals

FC Thun100%

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 29%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Despite Lech's recent clean sheets, Thun's average of 1.5 goals per game and history of scoring in qualifiers suggest a goal for both sides is plausible. The under 3.5 goals context aligns with a moderate-scoring game, supporting the combined bet's feasibility.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLech Poznan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 76% · edge -1 pts

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

The for Lech Poznan to win and both teams to score reflect a balanced view of Lech's strong home advantage and Thun's attacking potential. The market is slightly short on price, indicating cautious optimism but advising reduced stakes due to the fragile nature of the BTTS condition.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League hub full betting preview for Lech Poznan v FC Thun corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lech Poznan7

Avg corners for

FC Thun6

Lech Poznan11

Avg total corners

FC Thun10

Lech Poznan1.5

Avg yellow cards

FC Thun2

Lech Poznan9

Avg shots

FC Thun0

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Lech Poznan average 7 corners and 9 shots per game with 1.5 yellow cards, indicating active attacking play and moderate discipline. Thun's 6 corners and 7 shots with 2 yellows reflect a team that presses but concedes fouls, supporting a dynamic match with set-piece opportunities and contested possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lech Poznan

Last 52W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 0L

14 Aug 2026A KI Klaksvik5-0

06 Aug 2026H KI Klaksvik1-0

FC Thun

Last 51W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 1L

13 Aug 2026A Vikingur Reykjavik2-3

06 Aug 2026H Vikingur Reykjavik3-0

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 90% · edge -4.1 pts

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

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Lech Poznan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Lech Poznan have won their last two matches scoring 3 goals and conceding none, showing strong form and defensive solidity. FC Thun have won one of their last two matches, scoring 2.5 goals on average but conceding 1.5, indicating offensive capability but defensive vulnerability. This recent form supports a competitive game with goals at both ends.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lech Poznan wins

0Draws

0FC Thun wins

Market aligned with main pickLech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 67% · edge +0.2 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

No previous head-to-head meetings exist between Lech Poznan and FC Thun, so historical data offers no direct insight. The match outcome will depend on current form, tactical setups, and individual player performances rather than past encounters.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan2

Played

FC Thun2

Lech Poznan3

Avg goals for

FC Thun2.5

Lech Poznan0

Avg goals against

FC Thun1.5

Lech Poznan2

Clean sheets

FC Thun1

Market aligned with main pickLech Poznan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 76% · edge -1 pts

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

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Lech Poznan to WinBet365 guide price · model 67%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Lech Poznan's season stats show a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a stingy defense conceding only 0.5 goals, highlighting their home strength. FC Thun's season data reveals a contrasting profile with 1.5 goals scored but 2.9 conceded per game, emphasizing defensive weaknesses that Lech can exploit while Thun still pose a scoring threat.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Lech Poznan Over 2.5

100%FC Thun Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Over the last five matches, the trend favors over 2.5 goals in games involving FC Thun, who have conceded multiple goals away and scored regularly. Lech Poznan's matches also show a 50% over 2.5 rate, indicating a moderate tempo and goal volume that supports a lively encounter with multiple goals.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Lech Poznan v FC Thun Stats

Match Report

Lech Poznan to Win & Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Lech Poznan

FC Thun

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Football Stats Hub

Lech Poznan v FC Thun Stats

Match Report

Lech Poznan to Win & Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Lech Poznan

FC Thun

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