Inter Miami

Toronto FC

Major League Soccer | Sun 23 Aug, 00:30

Inter Miami v Toronto FC Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Inter Miami hosts Toronto FC in a Major League Soccer clash where Inter Miami sits second in the standings with strong attacking numbers but defensive vulnerabilities, while Toronto FC is positioned 11th, showing resilience and tactical discipline. Toronto FC has earned points on the road and demonstrated defensive solidity, making the double chance on Toronto FC or Draw a compelling option. The match promises tactical battles with Toronto FC aiming to frustrate Inter Miami's high-tempo offense and capitalize on counter-attacks, adding intrigue to this late August fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Toronto FC or Draw

Toronto FC holds a solid defensive record conceding 1.4 goals per game compared to Inter Miami's 2.0.
Inter Miami averages 1.8 goals per game but has a high goals-against rate, indicating defensive risk.
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting attacking intent from both sides.
Toronto FC or Draw has a of 60% with a positive of 26.7%.
Inter Miami's home rank is 2nd but Toronto FC's defensive discipline supports the away double chance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Toronto FC or Draw with a 60% chance, reflecting Toronto's defensive strength and ability to avoid defeat against a potent but defensively leaky Inter Miami. Despite Inter Miami's attacking firepower led by Messi, Toronto FC's resilience and tactical setup reduce the likelihood of a home win. The offer positive value, indicating the market underestimates Toronto FC's ability to secure at least a draw. This pick balances attacking threat with defensive solidity, though Inter Miami's firepower means the match could still be open and competitive.

Model Chance60%

Strong positive

Value Edge26.7%

Strong positive

Inter Miami Defensive Record2.0 goals conceded per game

Negative

Toronto FC Defensive Record1.4 goals conceded per game

Positive

BTTS Rate Both Teams80%

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Toronto FC or Draw is a tactically sound pick given Toronto's defensive discipline and Inter Miami's defensive vulnerabilities. Toronto FC's ability to frustrate and secure points away aligns with the data, making this double chance a prudent choice for those wary of Inter Miami's attacking prowess.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive balance

“Toronto FC's defensive resilience and tactical discipline make the double chance a smart option against an Inter Miami side that scores freely but concedes frequently. This bet captures the balance between Inter Miami's attack and Toronto's solidity.”

Key Data Signals

Toronto FC or Draw evidence

Toronto FC holds a solid defensive record conceding 1.4 goals per game compared to Inter Miami's 2.0.

Inter Miami averages 1.8 goals per game but has a high goals-against rate, indicating defensive risk.

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting attacking intent from both sides.

Toronto FC or Draw has a of 60% with a positive of 26.7%.

What To Watch In The Data

Toronto FC or Draw notes

The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
Inter Miami's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate and Toronto FC's 60% rate suggest a moderate likelihood of a high-scoring game, but Toronto's defensive discipline could moderate the tempo and goal volume in this encounter.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Inter Miami1.8

Avg goals scored

Toronto FC1.4

Inter Miami2

Avg goals conceded

Toronto FC1.4

Inter Miami80%

BTTS rate

Toronto FC80%

Inter Miami80%

Over 2.5 goals

Toronto FC60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts

1.4

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%

1.06

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%

Check odds @ 4

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, reflecting their attacking tendencies. Inter Miami averages 1.8 goals per game while Toronto FC averages 1.4, with the head-to-head averaging 3.2 goals, supporting a potentially open game with goals at both ends, though Toronto's defensive discipline may limit Inter Miami's scoring.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts

1.4

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Toronto FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Toronto FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Inter Miami Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.24

Check odds @ 1.24

Inter Miami to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

The Toronto FC or Draw market shows strong value with implying a 33.3% chance versus the model's 60%, indicating the market underestimates Toronto FC's ability to avoid defeat. This price sensitivity suggests a good opportunity for bettors seeking a positive expected value in this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Inter Miami4.75

Avg corners for

Toronto FC4.4

Inter Miami10.5

Avg total corners

Toronto FC10.8

Inter Miami2

Avg yellow cards

Toronto FC1.4

Inter Miami13.75

Avg shots

Toronto FC11.6

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

2.1

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Toronto FC averages more corners (6.67) than Inter Miami (5), indicating sustained pressure in attack. Inter Miami takes more shots overall (18) but fewer on target (3) compared to Toronto FC's 4.67 SOT, suggesting Toronto FC's defense forces lower-quality shots. The card data shows Inter Miami's higher fouling rate (2.5 yellows vs 0.67), hinting at a more aggressive approach that could influence match tempo and discipline.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Inter Miami

DLDWW

Last 52W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 106W 2D 2L

20 Aug 2026A Philadelphia Union2-2

16 Aug 2026A Nashville SC1-4

02 Aug 2026H Columbus Crew2-2

26 Jul 2026A CF Montreal1-0

23 Jul 2026H Chicago Fire3-2

Toronto FC

DWDLD

Last 51W 3D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 5D 4L

20 Aug 2026H Charlotte3-3

16 Aug 2026H New England Revolution2-1

01 Aug 2026A New York City FC1-1

26 Jul 2026A DC United1-2

23 Jul 2026A New England Revolution0-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 3

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Toronto FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%

3.9

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Toronto FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%

5.5

Check odds @ 5.5

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Inter Miami Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.24

Check odds @ 1.24

Inter Miami to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Inter Miami has accumulated 8 points recently with a high goals-for average (1.8) but concedes 2 goals per game, reflecting defensive fragility. Toronto FC has 6 points with a tighter defense conceding 1.4 goals per game. This recent form data supports Toronto FC's ability to avoid defeat and suggests a competitive match where defensive solidity could be decisive.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Inter Miami wins

2Draws

1Toronto FC wins

09 May 2026Toronto FC v Inter Miami2-4

27 Sep 2025Toronto FC v Inter Miami1-1

07 Apr 2025Inter Miami v Toronto FC1-1

05 Oct 2024Toronto FC v Inter Miami0-1

09 Aug 2024Inter Miami v Toronto FC4-3

18 Jul 2024Inter Miami v Toronto FC3-1

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

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Toronto FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%

7.5

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DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%

5.5

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Inter Miami to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 3.2 goals per game, suggesting historically open contests. However, Toronto FC's defensive improvements and tactical adjustments in recent seasons provide a stronger foundation to challenge Inter Miami, making the historical data a useful but not definitive guide for this match.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Inter Miami21

Played

Toronto FC21

Inter Miami2.3

Avg goals for

Toronto FC1.5

Inter Miami1.9

Avg goals against

Toronto FC1.8

Inter Miami4

Clean sheets

Toronto FC3

Best odds for this sectionToronto FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.9

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Toronto FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%

7.5

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Inter Miami Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.24

Check odds @ 1.24

Inter Miami to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Over the season, Toronto FC's defensive record (1.4 goals conceded) contrasts with Inter Miami's more porous defense (2.0 goals conceded), despite Inter Miami's superior attacking output (1.8 goals per game). This balance favors Toronto FC's chances to secure at least a draw by limiting Inter Miami's scoring opportunities.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Inter Miami	39	21	11	6	4	9
10	Toronto FC	24	21	5	9	7	-6

Inter Miami sits 2nd with 39 points, reflecting strong overall performance but with defensive vulnerabilities. Toronto FC is 11th with 21 points, indicating a mid-table position but with enough resilience to challenge higher-ranked teams. The standings highlight the stakes for Toronto FC to gain points and for Inter Miami to maintain their position, adding competitive tension to the fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Inter Miami Over 2.5

60%Toronto FC Over 2.5

3.2H2H avg goals

The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.2 goals, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Inter Miami's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate and Toronto FC's 60% rate suggest a moderate likelihood of a high-scoring game, but Toronto's defensive discipline could moderate the tempo and goal volume in this encounter.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Inter Miami v Toronto FC Stats

Match Report

Toronto FC or Draw

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Inter Miami

Toronto FC

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

Inter Miami v Toronto FC Stats

Match Report

Toronto FC or Draw

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Inter Miami

Toronto FC

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