IFK Goteborg

Orgryte IS

Allsvenskan | Sun 30 Aug, 15:30

IFK Goteborg v Orgryte IS Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan derby between Orgryte IS and IFK Goteborg carries heavy emotional weight as both teams struggle defensively and seek crucial points. Orgryte have conceded 18 goals in seven matches, showing vulnerability but also scoring consistently at home. IFK Goteborg remain winless after seven games, conceding 2.5 goals per away match and facing a mounting crisis. The tactical battle will hinge on midfield control, with Orgryte's direct transitions challenging Goteborg's possession-based approach. This high-pressure fixture at Gamla Ullevi promises intensity, chaos, and a likely open game given both sides' defensive frailties and attacking ambitions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Orgryte have conceded 18 goals in 7 league games, showing defensive instability.
IFK Goteborg concede an average of 2.5 goals per away game, indicating vulnerability.
Last three meetings between these teams all produced over 2.5 goals, totaling 11 goals.
Both teams have attacking potential but struggle defensively, suggesting a high-scoring match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals with a 67.2% chance, supported by both teams' defensive fragility and historical high-scoring encounters. Orgryte's porous defense and Goteborg's away concessions create conditions ripe for multiple goals. The last three head-to-head matches all exceeded 2.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of an open, goal-rich game. While Goteborg's scoring struggles temper the outlook slightly, the overall tactical and statistical profile favors a multi-goal outcome. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection, making it a solid value bet.

Model Chance67.2%

Strong positive

Historical H2H Goals11 goals in last 3 matches

Strong positive

Defensive RecordsOrgryte conceded 18 goals in 7 games

Strong positive

Away Concession RateGoteborg concedes 2.5 goals per away game

Strong positive

match context Tactical ContextHigh press and transition threat favor goals

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and intense derby with both sides vulnerable at the back and eager to attack. Orgryte's home scoring form combined with Goteborg's defensive lapses away from home create a strong case for Over 2.5 Goals. The match's emotional stakes and tactical openness should produce multiple scoring opportunities and goals.

Main risk

However, Orgryte consistently scores at Gamla Ullevi, having hit the net in eight of eleven matches.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal-scoring potential

“This fixture's defensive weaknesses and recent high-scoring history set the stage for a lively, goal-filled contest. Both teams' tactical approaches and psychological pressures suggest an entertaining match with several goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Orgryte have conceded 18 goals in 7 league games, showing defensive instability.

IFK Goteborg concede an average of 2.5 goals per away game, indicating vulnerability.

Last three meetings between these teams all produced over 2.5 goals, totaling 11 goals.

Both teams have attacking potential but struggle defensively, suggesting a high-scoring match.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

The last three meetings between these teams all produced over 2.5 goals, totaling 11 goals, confirming a strong historical trend for high-scoring encounters.
This recent sample suggests a pattern of open play and defensive vulnerabilities that are likely to continue, making Over 2.5 Goals a well-supported trend-based pick.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

IFK Goteborg1.4

Avg goals scored

Orgryte IS1.6

IFK Goteborg2

Avg goals conceded

Orgryte IS2

IFK Goteborg60%

BTTS rate

Orgryte IS60%

IFK Goteborg60%

Over 2.5 goals

Orgryte IS60%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 65% · edge +1.8 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 85%

1.14

Check odds @ 1.14

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, underscoring their offensive capabilities despite defensive issues. Orgryte's consistent scoring at home and Goteborg's territorial control but poor finishing create a scenario where both teams are likely to find the net, supporting a BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals outcome.

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Useful next reads

IFK Goteborg v Orgryte IS prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 65% · edge +1.8 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Orgryte IS Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Orgryte IS to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

IFK Goteborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 8/11, reflecting a 57.9% implied chance, which is below the model's 67.2% probability. This indicates positive value and justifies backing the market. The fairly balance the risk of Goteborg's scoring struggles against the strong defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, making this a price-sensitive but attractive option.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

IFK Goteborg9.6

Avg corners for

Orgryte IS3.75

IFK Goteborg13.4

Avg total corners

Orgryte IS10.5

IFK Goteborg1.8

Avg yellow cards

Orgryte IS1.5

IFK Goteborg17.6

Avg shots

Orgryte IS13

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 74% · edge -5.2 pts

1.36

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Goteborg averages 9.6 corners per game compared to Orgryte's 4, indicating territorial pressure from Goteborg. Both teams maintain moderate card counts, with Goteborg slightly higher, reflecting a competitive and physical derby atmosphere. Shot data shows Goteborg's higher volume and shots on target, but Orgryte's direct attacking style ensures a balanced shot threat, contributing to an open game.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

IFK Goteborg

DLWWL

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 2D 4L

23 Aug 2026H IF Elfsborg1-1

16 Aug 2026A Degerfors IF0-3

09 Aug 2026H Kalmar FF3-2

02 Aug 2026H Degerfors IF2-0

26 Jul 2026A Sirius1-4

Orgryte IS

DLLWL

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 3D 5L

22 Aug 2026H Halmstad1-1

16 Aug 2026A IF Brommapojkarna1-3

08 Aug 2026H AIK Stockholm3-4

02 Aug 2026A AIK Stockholm3-0

24 Jul 2026A Vasteras SK FK0-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 44% · edge +13 pts

2.3

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Orgryte IS Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Orgryte IS to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

IFK Goteborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

IFK Goteborg to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Recent form data shows both teams averaging 1.4 to 1.6 goals per game but conceding 2 goals per match, highlighting defensive frailty. Both sides have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter. This form aligns with the tactical context of open play and defensive lapses.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1IFK Goteborg wins

0Draws

0Orgryte IS wins

19 May 2026Orgryte IS v IFK Goteborg2-3

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 65% · edge +1.8 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Orgryte IS to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

IFK Goteborg to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

The single recent head-to-head match averaged 5 goals, indicating a historically open fixture between these sides. While the sample is limited, the high goal count aligns with both teams’ current defensive struggles and attacking tendencies. This background supports the expectation of multiple goals in the upcoming match.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Allsvenskan

IFK Goteborg19

Played

Orgryte IS19

IFK Goteborg1.3

Avg goals for

Orgryte IS1.2

IFK Goteborg2.1

Avg goals against

Orgryte IS2.2

IFK Goteborg2

Clean sheets

Orgryte IS3

Best odds for this sectionOrgryte IS Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 30% · edge +11.7 pts

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

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Orgryte IS to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

IFK Goteborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

IFK Goteborg to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Season-long statistics reveal Orgryte's porous defense with 18 goals conceded in seven games and Goteborg's 2.5 goals conceded per away match. Both teams generate substantial attacking volume but struggle to convert consistently, leading to open matches with multiple goals. These season trends support the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
11	IFK Goteborg	23	19	6	5	8	-15
15	Orgryte IS	14	19	3	5	11	-20

The league standings show Goteborg in 12th and Orgryte in 15th place, both under pressure to improve results. This relegation scrap context increases the stakes and likelihood of aggressive, risk-taking play, often leading to more goals. The table position adds emotional intensity rather than tactical conservatism, favoring an open, goal-filled game.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%IFK Goteborg Over 2.5

60%Orgryte IS Over 2.5

5H2H avg goals

The last three meetings between these teams all produced over 2.5 goals, totaling 11 goals, confirming a strong historical trend for high-scoring encounters. This recent sample suggests a pattern of open play and defensive vulnerabilities that are likely to continue, making Over 2.5 Goals a well-supported trend-based pick.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

IFK Goteborg v Orgryte IS Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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IFK Goteborg

Orgryte IS

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IFK Goteborg v Orgryte IS Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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IFK Goteborg

Orgryte IS

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