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Hellas Verona crestHellas Verona
v
Ascoli crestAscoli

Serie B | Sun 23 Aug, 18:00

Hellas Verona v Ascoli Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 18:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hellas Verona face Ascoli in Serie B on Sun 23 Aug, 18:00.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.95, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Neutral
Price sensitivityEdge -0.5 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Hellas Verona wins
2Draws
1Ascoli wins
12 Aug 2023Hellas Verona v Ascoli3-1
16 Mar 2019Hellas Verona v Ascoli1-1
30 Oct 2018Ascoli v Hellas Verona1-0
13 Mar 2017Hellas Verona v Ascoli0-0
15 Oct 2016Ascoli v Hellas Verona1-4
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 51% · edge -0.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Hellas Verona to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hellas Verona

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Hellas Verona yet.

Ascoli

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Ascoli yet.

Best odds for this sectionAscoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Hellas Verona to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Hellas Verona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hellas Verona-
Avg goals scored
Ascoli-
Hellas Verona-
Avg goals conceded
Ascoli-
Hellas Verona-
BTTS rate
Ascoli-
Hellas Verona-
Over 2.5 goals
Ascoli-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 51% · edge -0.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 51% · edge -0.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Hellas Verona to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Hellas Verona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Hellas Verona4
Played
Ascoli4
Hellas Verona2
Avg goals for
Ascoli1
Hellas Verona1.5
Avg goals against
Ascoli0.8
Hellas Verona1
Clean sheets
Ascoli1
Best odds for this sectionAscoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Hellas Verona to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Hellas Verona Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Season data supports Ascoli Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Ascoli742111
16Hellas Verona441122
Hellas Verona sit in position 16, while Ascoli sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Hellas Verona Over 2.5
-Ascoli Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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