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Heerenveen crestHeerenveen
v
Telstar crestTelstar

Eredivisie | Sun 13 Sep, 13:30

Heerenveen v Telstar Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heerenveen and Telstar meet in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open game. Heerenveen's recent matches show a willingness to push forward despite conceding at a higher rate, while Telstar's defensive struggles and aggressive approach contribute to high-scoring encounters. Both sides have shown a propensity for games with multiple goals, making this fixture ripe for offensive action and goalmouth opportunities. Tactical openness and the need for points add to the likelihood of a lively, goal-filled contest.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Heerenveen concedes 1.8 goals per game, Telstar concedes 2.2, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Telstar's matches go over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, Heerenveen 60%.
  • Average of 3.33 goals in last three head-to-head meetings suggests open games.
  • Heerenveen averages 13.2 shots per game with 5.4 on target, Telstar averages 8 shots with 2.4 on target.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, supporting goal involvement from both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 53% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance, reflecting a genuine expectation of a high-scoring game. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities and attacking volume, with Heerenveen's 13.2 shots per game and Telstar's 80% over 2.5 goals rate reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. The recent head-to-head average of 3.33 goals further supports this outlook. No price warning is needed as the fairly represent this scenario, making it a solid selection for goal-hungry punters.

Model Chance53%
Positive
Telstar Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Heerenveen Shots per Game13.2
Positive
H2H Average Goals3.33
Positive
Market Implied Chance52.4%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Heerenveen and Telstar have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency to concede multiple goals. The attacking volume from Heerenveen combined with Telstar's high over 2.5 goals rate suggests a lively contest with several scoring chances, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive openness

“This fixture features two sides with porous defenses but active offenses, creating a scenario where multiple goals are likely. The attacking patterns and recent high-scoring meetings point towards a game that should surpass three goals comfortably.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Heerenveen concedes 1.8 goals per game, Telstar concedes 2.2, indicating defensive frailty.

Telstar's matches go over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, Heerenveen 60%.

Average of 3.33 goals in last three head-to-head meetings suggests open games.

Heerenveen averages 13.2 shots per game with 5.4 on target, Telstar averages 8 shots with 2.4 on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a history of open, goal-rich encounters.
  • This recent trend suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Heerenveen4.4
Avg corners for
Telstar4.2
Heerenveen10.4
Avg total corners
Telstar10.8
Heerenveen1
Avg yellow cards
Telstar1.8
Heerenveen13.2
Avg shots
Telstar8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Heerenveen averages 4.4 corners and 13.2 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing sustained offensive pressure. Telstar's 4.2 corners and 8 shots with 2.4 on target indicate decent attacking attempts despite defensive weaknesses. The card averages suggest moderate fouling, which may lead to set-piece opportunities contributing to goal chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heerenveen1.4
Avg goals scored
Telstar1
Heerenveen1.8
Avg goals conceded
Telstar2.2
Heerenveen60%
BTTS rate
Telstar60%
Heerenveen60%
Over 2.5 goals
Telstar80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 52% · edge +0.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating frequent mutual scoring. Telstar's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Heerenveen's 60% rate highlight a strong trend towards high-scoring matches. The recent head-to-head average of 3.33 goals further supports the expectation of multiple goals and active attacking play from both sides.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Telstar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Telstar to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Heerenveen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced fairly with reflecting a 52.4% implied chance, closely matching the model's 53% probability. This alignment indicates a balanced market without significant value or warning flags, suggesting the price is appropriate for the expected goal volume.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heerenveen

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
06 Sep 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-3
30 Aug 2026A Willem II2-2
22 Aug 2026H PEC Zwolle0-2
16 Aug 2026A Ajax2-2
09 Aug 2026H Twente1-0

Telstar

LDLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
09 Sep 2026A Twente0-1
06 Sep 2026H Cambuur2-2
30 Aug 2026H Ajax0-4
14 Aug 2026H Sparta Rotterdam1-3
08 Aug 2026A NEC Nijmegen2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Telstar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Telstar to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Heerenveen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Recent form data shows Heerenveen scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.8, while Telstar scores 1 and concedes 2.2, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. The high over 2.5 goals rates (60% for Heerenveen, 80% for Telstar) underline a trend towards matches with multiple goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Heerenveen wins
1Draws
0Telstar wins
14 Mar 2026Heerenveen v Telstar3-0
19 Oct 2025Telstar v Heerenveen2-3
11 Jul 2025Heerenveen v Telstar1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +6.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Telstar to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The three previous meetings between Heerenveen and Telstar have averaged 3.33 goals per game, reflecting a pattern of open matches with multiple goals. While the sample is limited, this head-to-head history supports expectations for a game with significant attacking action and goal-scoring chances.
Season team stats

Eredivisie

Heerenveen5
Played
Telstar5
Heerenveen1.4
Avg goals for
Telstar1
Heerenveen1.8
Avg goals against
Telstar2.2
Heerenveen1
Clean sheets
Telstar0
Best odds for this sectionTelstar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 33% · edge +8.7 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Telstar to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Heerenveen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Heerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Season-long statistics reveal Heerenveen's aggressive offense with 13.2 shots per game and a moderate defensive record conceding 1.8 goals. Telstar's defensive frailty is evident with 2.2 goals conceded per game, while their attacking output supports goal-scoring chances. These profiles align with a fixture prone to multiple goals and open play.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Heerenveen55122-2
14Telstar45113-6
Heerenveen sits 12th and Telstar 14th in the Eredivisie, both near the lower end of the table, increasing the urgency to secure points. This pressure often leads to more open and attacking matches as both teams seek to improve their standings, which can contribute to higher goal totals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Heerenveen Over 2.5
80%Telstar Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a history of open, goal-rich encounters. This recent trend suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game in this fixture.

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