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Heart Of Midlothian crestHeart Of Midlothian
v
Inverness CT crestInverness CT

League Cup | Sun 16 Aug, 14:00

Heart Of Midlothian v Inverness CT Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Cup clash features Heart Of Midlothian hosting Inverness CT, with the away side in strong recent form after collecting 10 points and conceding just 0.25 goals per game. Inverness CT's defensive solidity and efficient attack contrast with Heart Of Midlothian's limited data and uncertain form, suggesting a tactical battle where the visitors' momentum and defensive discipline could prove decisive. The match offers a chance for Inverness CT to continue their impressive start and challenge a home side still finding rhythm and consistency.

BT4Y best bet

Inverness CT to Win

  • Inverness CT has earned 10 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.25 goals per game.
  • Heart Of Midlothian's recent form data is limited, making their performance less predictable.
  • Inverness CT averages 4.5 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game, showing offensive threat.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.9 goals, indicating potential for open play but current form favors Inverness CT's control.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Inverness CT to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their recent unbeaten run and defensive resilience. The of 11 imply a low 9.1% chance, creating a significant of 60.9%. Despite limited data on Heart Of Midlothian, Inverness CT's consistent shot volume and low goals conceded underpin in their ability to secure victory. This pick is shown as standard stake with no price warnings, highlighting a clear value opportunity based on form and defensive strength.

Recent FormInverness CT unbeaten with 10 points
Strong positive
Defensive Record0.25 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Shooting Volume4.5 shots and shots on target per game
Positive
Price ValueOdds imply 9.1% chance vs model 70%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Inverness CT's solid defensive form and strong recent results make them a compelling choice to win this League Cup fixture. Their ability to limit opponents' chances and maintain offensive pressure contrasts with Heart Of Midlothian's uncertain form, suggesting the visitors can capitalize on this advantage to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Inverness CT's defensive discipline and recent momentum position them well to upset a home side still searching for consistency. Their efficient attack and low concession rate create a tactical edge in this cup tie.”

Key Data Signals

Inverness CT to Win evidence

Inverness CT has earned 10 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.25 goals per game.

Heart Of Midlothian's recent form data is limited, making their performance less predictable.

Inverness CT averages 4.5 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game, showing offensive threat.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.9 goals, indicating potential for open play but current form favors Inverness CT's control.

What To Watch In The Data

Inverness CT to Win notes

  • Analysis of the last ten head-to-head matches reveals an average of 2.9 goals per game, indicating a moderately open style historically.
  • However, Inverness CT's recent defensive improvements suggest this fixture may feature fewer goals, with tempo controlled through disciplined defending and selective attacking transitions.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heart Of Midlothian

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Heart Of Midlothian yet.

Inverness CT

WWWD
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
25 Jul 2026A Morton1-0
21 Jul 2026H ST Johnstone1-0
18 Jul 2026A Linlithgow Rose2-0
11 Jul 2026H East Fife1-1
Market aligned with main pickInverness CT to WinBetfred guide price · Model 24% vs implied 9% · edge +15 pts
11
Check odds @ 11
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Inverness CT Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Inverness CT's recent form is impressive, securing 10 points with a strong defensive record of just 0.25 goals conceded per game. In contrast, Heart Of Midlothian's form data is limited and less convincing, highlighting a momentum advantage for the visitors that could influence the match outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heart Of Midlothian-
Avg goals scored
Inverness CT1.25
Heart Of Midlothian-
Avg goals conceded
Inverness CT0.25
Heart Of Midlothian-
BTTS rate
Inverness CT25%
Heart Of Midlothian-
Over 2.5 goals
Inverness CT0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Recent data shows Inverness CT averaging 1.25 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded per game, with a low 25% BTTS rate, indicating a tendency for tighter matches. The head-to-head average of 2.9 goals suggests potential for goals, but current defensive solidity points to a controlled game with limited BTTS likelihood.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickInverness CT to WinBetfred guide price · Model 24% vs implied 9% · edge +15 pts
11
Check odds @ 11
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Inverness CT Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The current of 11 for Inverness CT to win represent a significant value opportunity given the model's 70% win probability. This discrepancy highlights a market underestimation of Inverness CT's form and defensive strength, making the selection price-sensitive but clearly attractive for a standard stake.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Heart Of Midlothian wins
4Draws
0Inverness CT wins
25 Jul 2021Heart Of Midlothian v Inverness CT1-0
24 Apr 2021Heart Of Midlothian v Inverness CT3-0
26 Feb 2021Inverness CT v Heart Of Midlothian1-1
07 Nov 2020Heart Of Midlothian v Inverness CT2-1
06 Oct 2020Heart Of Midlothian v Inverness CT1-0
29 Jul 2018Heart Of Midlothian v Inverness CT5-0
Market aligned with main pickInverness CT to WinBetfred guide price · Model 24% vs implied 9% · edge +15 pts
11
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The ten previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.9 goals per game, showing a history of moderately high-scoring encounters. However, current form and defensive trends favor Inverness CT, suggesting that while past results indicate openness, this match may be more tactically cautious and defensively focused.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Heart Of Midlothian-
Avg corners for
Inverness CT4
Heart Of Midlothian-
Avg total corners
Inverness CT6
Heart Of Midlothian-
Avg yellow cards
Inverness CT0.5
Heart Of Midlothian-
Avg shots
Inverness CT4.5

No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Cup

Heart Of Midlothian0
Played
Inverness CT4
Heart Of Midlothian0
Avg goals for
Inverness CT1.5
Heart Of Midlothian0
Avg goals against
Inverness CT0.3
Heart Of Midlothian0
Clean sheets
Inverness CT3
Market aligned with main pickInverness CT to WinBetfred guide price · Model 24% vs implied 9% · edge +15 pts
11
Check odds @ 11
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Inverness CT Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Season-long statistics underline Inverness CT's defensive solidity and efficient attack, with a low goals-against average and consistent shot creation. This balanced profile supports in their ability to control the match and convert chances into goals, aligning with the selection to win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5
0%Inverness CT Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten head-to-head matches reveals an average of 2.9 goals per game, indicating a moderately open style historically. However, Inverness CT's recent defensive improvements suggest this fixture may feature fewer goals, with tempo controlled through disciplined defending and selective attacking transitions.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.