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Gremio crestGremio
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

Serie A | Sat 08 Aug, 20:00

Gremio v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 09 Aug 2026, 03:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio and Sao Paulo meet in a Serie A clash where disciplinary intensity is expected to be high. Gremio, positioned 17th, have shown resilience but also defensive vulnerabilities, while Sao Paulo, ranked 12th, are pushing for points to climb higher. Both teams have a history of physical encounters, with tactical setups likely to provoke fouls and cautions. Recent form data indicates a competitive, tense atmosphere, suggesting referees may need to intervene frequently to maintain control in this potentially heated fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Both teams average 2.8 yellow cards per match, indicating a consistently physical style.
  • Gremio’s aggressive defensive approach contributes to a high card count in their games.
  • Sao Paulo’s players, including E. Díaz, have notable card risk, increasing caution likelihood.
  • Recent matches show a combined tendency towards multiple cards, supporting the Over 3.5 Cards bet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 74.4% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, reflecting the physical nature of both teams and their disciplinary records. Both Gremio and Sao Paulo average nearly 3 yellow cards per game, and key players like E. Díaz and André Henrique have high card risk profiles. The match’s competitive stakes and tactical aggression further increase the likelihood of multiple cautions. This pick is supported by consistent historical data and player-level card tendencies, making it a strong candidate for bettors.

Team average yellow cardsGremio 2.8, Sao Paulo 2.8 per match
Strong positive
Player card riskE. Díaz and Dodi have high yellow card counts
Positive
Match intensityCompetitive league positions and tactical aggression
Positive
Model confidence74.4% chance for Over 3.5 Cards
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged encounter with both teams committed to aggressive play, increasing the likelihood of multiple cautions. Gremio’s defensive frailties and Sao Paulo’s card-prone players create a scenario where referees will likely issue several yellow cards to maintain control. This tactical and disciplinary context underpins the Over 3.5 Cards selection as a sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Disciplinary intensity and tactical aggression

“This fixture’s competitive edge and player profiles suggest a high card count, with referees poised to manage frequent fouls and tactical challenges aggressively.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average 2.8 yellow cards per match, indicating a consistently physical style.

Gremio’s aggressive defensive approach contributes to a high card count in their games.

Sao Paulo’s players, including E. Díaz, have notable card risk, increasing caution likelihood.

Recent matches show a combined tendency towards multiple cards, supporting the Over 3.5 Cards bet.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.6, indicating moderately open games.
  • While goal trends are moderate, the tempo and physicality in these encounters often lead to tactical fouling and multiple cards, aligning with the Over 3.5 Cards forecast.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio5.6
Avg corners for
Sao Paulo4.5
Gremio11
Avg total corners
Sao Paulo8.75
Gremio2.8
Avg yellow cards
Sao Paulo3.5
Gremio9.2
Avg shots
Sao Paulo10.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 53% · edge +7.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams generate moderate shot volumes and corners, but the key factor is the high average yellow cards (2.8 each). This suggests frequent fouls and tactical fouling to disrupt play, reinforcing the expectation of multiple cards in this match.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The Over 3.5 Cards market reflects the strong likelihood of multiple cautions given both teams’ average yellow card counts near 3 per game. The model’s 74.4% chance supports this as a price-sensitive but viable bet, with no current data to suggest value distortion.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

DLLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
26 Jul 2026H Fluminense1-1
18 Jul 2026A Mirassol1-2
30 May 2026H Corinthians1-3
23 May 2026H Santos3-2
17 May 2026A Bahia1-1

Sao Paulo

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
26 Jul 2026A Flamengo1-1
23 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-2
01 Jun 2026A Remo0-1
23 May 2026H Botafogo1-1
16 May 2026A Fluminense1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 83% vs implied 74% · edge +9.9 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data shows both teams consistently accumulate close to 3 yellow cards per match, with Gremio’s aggressive style and Sao Paulo’s disciplinary record supporting the Over 3.5 Cards outcome. This trend aligns with the model’s strong in this market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1.4
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo0.8
Gremio1.8
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo1.4
Gremio100%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo80%
Gremio60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
While goals and BTTS rates are moderate, the focus on cards stems from the physicality rather than scoring trends. Gremio’s 100% BTTS rate and Sao Paulo’s 80% indicate open play, which often correlates with fouls and disciplinary actions, indirectly supporting the card market.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Gremio wins
0Draws
6Sao Paulo wins
12 Feb 2026Sao Paulo v Gremio2-0
16 Oct 2025Gremio v Sao Paulo2-0
18 May 2025Sao Paulo v Gremio2-1
01 Dec 2024Gremio v Sao Paulo2-1
18 Jul 2024Sao Paulo v Gremio1-0
21 Oct 2023Sao Paulo v Gremio3-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows a moderately open style with 2.6 average goals, but also a pattern of physical contests. This historical context supports the expectation of multiple cautions as both teams engage in intense battles during their meetings.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Sao Paulo26217591
14Gremio2521678-3
Gremio’s position near the relegation zone and Sao Paulo’s mid-table status add competitive pressure, often translating into heightened aggression and fouls. This context supports the likelihood of a card-heavy match as both sides fight for crucial points.
Season team stats

Serie A

Gremio20
Played
Sao Paulo21
Gremio1.1
Avg goals for
Sao Paulo1.2
Gremio1.3
Avg goals against
Sao Paulo1.2
Gremio5
Clean sheets
Sao Paulo4
Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season-long statistics reveal both teams maintain high yellow card averages, reflecting tactical approaches that prioritize physicality and disruption. This sustained pattern underpins the expectation for multiple cards in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gremio Over 2.5
40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.6, indicating moderately open games. While goal trends are moderate, the tempo and physicality in these encounters often lead to tactical fouling and multiple cards, aligning with the Over 3.5 Cards forecast.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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