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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Fluminense crestFluminense

Serie A | Sun 09 Aug, 01:00

Botafogo v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo and Fluminense meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown contrasting attacking and defensive traits recently. Botafogo has earned 8 points from their last matches, averaging 3.25 corners per game, while Fluminense, sitting higher in the table, averages 7 corners per match and has struggled to score consistently. The tactical setup suggests Fluminense will press to control possession, likely forcing Botafogo into defensive corners. This fixture's tempo and territorial battles are expected to generate a high volume of corners, reflecting both teams' styles and recent form.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Fluminense averages 7 corners per game, significantly higher than Botafogo's 3.25.
  • Both teams have moderate defensive pressure, leading to frequent corner situations.
  • Recent matches show Botafogo concedes corners under pressure, boosting total corner count.
  • The model estimates a 75% chance for over 8.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 75% probability for over 8.5 corners based on both teams' corner averages and match tempo. Fluminense's attacking pressure and Botafogo's defensive resilience create many corner opportunities. The combined average corners per game exceed the threshold, supporting the bet. No price warnings apply, and data quality is solid, reinforcing in this selection.

Fluminense corner average7 per game
Strong positive
Botafogo corner average3.25 per game
Positive
Match tempo and pressureHigh attacking pressure from Fluminense
Strong positive
Model confidence75% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a corner-heavy match as Fluminense's offensive approach and Botafogo's defensive challenges combine to produce numerous corner kicks. The statistical corner averages and recent form data suggest this market is well supported by both teams' playing styles and match dynamics.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“Fluminense's strong wing play and Botafogo's defensive pressure typically result in a high corner count, making over 8.5 corners a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Fluminense averages 7 corners per game, significantly higher than Botafogo's 3.25.

Both teams have moderate defensive pressure, leading to frequent corner situations.

Recent matches show Botafogo concedes corners under pressure, boosting total corner count.

The model estimates a 75% chance for over 8.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily high-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a balanced tempo where set pieces like corners become important attacking routes, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend panel's indication of active attacking phases leading to corners.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo1
Avg goals scored
Fluminense0.6
Botafogo0.8
Avg goals conceded
Fluminense0.8
Botafogo60%
BTTS rate
Fluminense60%
Botafogo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Fluminense0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams have low recent goal-scoring rates, with Botafogo averaging 1 goal per game and Fluminense 0.6, and both sides showing a 60% BTTS rate. This suggests a controlled scoring environment, where goals may be limited but defensive pressure could lead to set-piece opportunities like corners.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +8.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The over 8.5 corners market is priced with a 75% , indicating a strong likelihood of occurrence. The corner averages for both teams combined comfortably exceed this threshold, making this a statistically sound market without current price warnings or reduced stake advice.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubfull betting preview for Botafogo v Fluminensecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo4.4
Avg corners for
Fluminense6
Botafogo10.6
Avg total corners
Fluminense10.6
Botafogo3.6
Avg yellow cards
Fluminense2.4
Botafogo14.2
Avg shots
Fluminense15.2
Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +8.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Fluminense's higher corner average (7 per game) reflects their attacking pressure and wing play, while Botafogo's 4.25 yellow cards per game indicate a physical defensive approach that often results in fouls and set pieces. The combined shot volumes (Botafogo 13, Fluminense 17.25) support sustained offensive phases generating corners.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
26 Jul 2026A Cruzeiro1-0
23 Jul 2026H Vitoria0-0
16 Jul 2026H Santos2-1
30 May 2026A Bahia1-2
23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1

Fluminense

DDDDL
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
30 Jul 2026H Bahia0-0
26 Jul 2026A Gremio1-1
18 Jul 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
01 Jun 2026A Cruzeiro1-1
23 May 2026A Mirassol0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Recent form shows Botafogo averaging 3.25 corners and Fluminense 7 per game, with Botafogo earning 8 points and Fluminense 4 in their last matches. This form data aligns with the corner market, reflecting consistent pressure and territorial battles that produce corners.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Botafogo wins
0Draws
3Fluminense wins
12 Feb 2026Fluminense v Botafogo1-0
01 Feb 2026Botafogo v Fluminense0-1
28 Sep 2025Fluminense v Botafogo2-0
27 Apr 2025Botafogo v Fluminense2-0
30 Jan 2025Botafogo v Fluminense2-1
21 Sep 2024Fluminense v Botafogo0-1
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The 10 previous meetings between Botafogo and Fluminense have averaged 2 goals per game, showing moderate scoring but not high goal volumes. While this does not directly predict corners, it indicates balanced contests where defensive pressure and attacking attempts often lead to set-piece situations such as corners, providing indirect support for the corners market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Botafogo20
Played
Fluminense21
Botafogo1.7
Avg goals for
Fluminense1.4
Botafogo1.6
Avg goals against
Fluminense1.2
Botafogo3
Clean sheets
Fluminense4
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 57% · edge +14.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Across the season, Fluminense's high corner average and Botafogo's moderate corner count reflect their playing styles—Fluminense's attacking control and Botafogo's defensive resilience. These season-long stats underpin the expectation of over 8.5 corners in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fluminense34219755
8Botafogo29208572
Fluminense's higher league position (4th) compared to Botafogo (8th) suggests they will push for control, likely increasing attacking pressure and corner opportunities. The standings context supports Fluminense's offensive intent but does not guarantee match outcome, focusing instead on corner generation potential.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Botafogo Over 2.5
0%Fluminense Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily high-scoring games. This trend suggests a balanced tempo where set pieces like corners become important attacking routes, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend panel's indication of active attacking phases leading to corners.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Botafogo v Fluminense prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

Serie A hubSerie A hubfull betting preview for Botafogo v Fluminensecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

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Betting context

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