Football Stats Hub

Flamengo crestFlamengo
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

Serie A | Sun 26 Jul, 22:30

Flamengo v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 05:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo hosts Sao Paulo in a Serie A clash where Flamengo's strong recent form and tactical solidity set them as clear favorites. Flamengo sits second in the league with 37 points and has demonstrated a balanced attack and defense, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Sao Paulo, in 12th place with 25 points, struggles for consistency and defensive stability, conceding 1.8 goals per match. Flamengo's home advantage and superior squad depth create a tactical edge, while Sao Paulo's offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities add to Flamengo's winning prospects.

BT4Y best bet

Flamengo to Win

  • Flamengo ranks 2nd with 37 points, showing strong league form.
  • Sao Paulo ranks 12th with 25 points, reflecting inconsistency.
  • Flamengo averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season.
  • Sao Paulo concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Flamengo averages 17 shots and 5.2 shots on target per match, outshooting Sao Paulo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Flamengo to win with a 74% chance, supported by their superior league position, stronger recent form, and more effective attack and defense metrics. Flamengo's higher shot volume and better defensive record underpin their control over matches. Sao Paulo's struggles in both scoring and defending reduce their chances, making Flamengo's win a logical and data-backed selection. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting the home or away team statistics.

League PositionFlamengo 2nd vs Sao Paulo 12th
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsFlamengo 10 vs Sao Paulo 1
Strong positive
Goals For/AgainstFlamengo 1.8/0.8 vs Sao Paulo 1/1.8
Strong positive
Shots per GameFlamengo 17 vs Sao Paulo 12.4
Positive
Data QualityFull data available for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Flamengo's tactical discipline and attacking firepower make them the clear choice to secure victory. Their consistent form and defensive resilience contrast sharply with Sao Paulo's vulnerabilities, providing a strong foundation for Flamengo to control the game and claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Flamengo's blend of attacking efficiency and defensive organization positions them well to dominate this fixture, especially given Sao Paulo's recent struggles and defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Flamengo to Win evidence

Flamengo ranks 2nd with 37 points, showing strong league form.

Sao Paulo ranks 12th with 25 points, reflecting inconsistency.

Flamengo averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season.

Sao Paulo concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo fixtures is 1.9, indicating a moderately low-scoring trend.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent games, suggesting potential for goals but also controlled tempo, aligning with Flamengo's balanced attack and defense.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo1.8
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo1
Flamengo0.8
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo1.8
Flamengo20%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo80%
Flamengo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The goal and BTTS data suggest a controlled scoring environment favoring Flamengo. Sao Paulo's high BTTS rate contrasts with Flamengo's low rate, indicating Flamengo's likelihood to keep a clean sheet while scoring, supporting a BTTS No scenario and controlled goal totals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Flamengo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Flamengo's win market reflects their dominant form and league standing, with the model assigning a 74% chance of victory. The are reasonable given Flamengo's superior attack and defense metrics, making this a solid selection rather than a price-sensitive watch.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Flamengo6
Avg corners for
Sao Paulo6
Flamengo10.4
Avg total corners
Sao Paulo10.4
Flamengo2.8
Avg yellow cards
Sao Paulo3
Flamengo17
Avg shots
Sao Paulo12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Flamengo's higher average shots and shots on target indicate offensive pressure, while both teams average six corners per game, suggesting balanced set-piece opportunities. Sao Paulo's slightly higher yellow card average reflects a more aggressive defensive approach, potentially impacting game flow and discipline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

WWLDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
23 Jul 2026A Chapecoense-sc4-0
30 May 2026H Coritiba3-0
24 May 2026H Palmeiras0-3
17 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-1
10 May 2026A Gremio1-0

Sao Paulo

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
23 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-2
01 Jun 2026A Remo0-1
23 May 2026H Botafogo1-1
16 May 2026A Fluminense1-2
10 May 2026A Corinthians2-3
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Flamengo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Flamengo's recent form is impressive, accumulating 10 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game, reflecting both attacking potency and defensive solidity. Sao Paulo's form is poor, with just 1 point and a negative goal difference, highlighting their struggles and reinforcing Flamengo's advantage.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Flamengo wins
4Draws
4Sao Paulo wins
29 Jan 2026Sao Paulo v Flamengo2-1
06 Nov 2025Sao Paulo v Flamengo2-2
12 Jul 2025Flamengo v Sao Paulo2-0
19 Jan 2025Sao Paulo v Flamengo0-0
04 Aug 2024Sao Paulo v Flamengo1-0
18 Apr 2024Flamengo v Sao Paulo2-1
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The last ten meetings between Flamengo and Sao Paulo have averaged 1.9 goals per game, showing a trend of relatively tight contests. While Flamengo has historically held a slight edge, the head-to-head data supports a competitive match but leans towards Flamengo's ability to secure a win given their current form and squad strength.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Flamengo18
Played
Sao Paulo19
Flamengo1.9
Avg goals for
Sao Paulo1.3
Flamengo0.9
Avg goals against
Sao Paulo1.2
Flamengo8
Clean sheets
Sao Paulo4
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
Flamengo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Throughout the season, Flamengo has demonstrated a strong attacking output with 1.8 goals per game and a solid defense conceding only 0.8 goals. Sao Paulo's season stats reveal a weaker attack and a leaky defense, conceding 1.8 goals on average, underscoring Flamengo's superiority in both phases.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Flamengo3718114319
12Sao Paulo25197482
Flamengo's second-place position with 37 points underscores their status as title contenders, while Sao Paulo's 12th place and 25 points reflect mid-table struggles. The league context adds pressure on Sao Paulo to perform but also highlights Flamengo's consistency and quality advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Flamengo Over 2.5
60%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo fixtures is 1.9, indicating a moderately low-scoring trend. Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent games, suggesting potential for goals but also controlled tempo, aligning with Flamengo's balanced attack and defense.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Vasco DA Gama v MirassolSerie A · Sun 26 Jul 00:30Bahia v CorinthiansSerie A · Sun 26 Jul 20:00Cruzeiro v BotafogoSerie A · Sun 26 Jul 20:00Gremio v FluminenseSerie A · Sun 26 Jul 22:30

Competition and hubs

Serie A hubmore Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre