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Serie A | Sun 26 Jul, 20:00

Bahia v Corinthians Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bahia hosts Corinthians in a crucial Serie A clash at Arena Fonte Nova, where both teams carry strong Copa Libertadores ambitions. Bahia sits sixth with a solid home record but defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded in nine of their last eleven league games. Corinthians arrive on a three-match winning streak under Fernando Diniz, with renewed attacking led by striker Yuri Alberto's recent scoring form. The tactical battle will hinge on Bahia's attacking consistency against Corinthians' improved offensive rhythm, with both sides eager to assert control and maintain momentum in this tightly contested top-table encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in 9 of Bahia's last 11 league matches, highlighting consistent attacking output and defensive frailty.
  • Corinthians have scored in 5 of their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form despite limited away wins.
  • Bahia has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 11 league games, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends.
  • Corinthians' recent matches have frequently featured three or more goals, indicating open and eventful games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance to both teams scoring, well above the implied market probability of 55.6%, indicating strong value. Bahia's consistent scoring record and defensive struggles combine with Corinthians' rejuvenated attack and regular away goals to create a high-probability scenario for goals at both ends. The tactical context of an open, high-tempo match with attacking momentum on both sides supports this expectation. No data limitations or price warnings apply, making this a confident selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance55.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge20.4%
Strong positive
Bahia Defensive RecordConceded in 9 of last 11 matches
Strong positive
Corinthians Attack FormScored in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Main risk

Bahia carry the stronger scoring threat, but Corinthians must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two teams with strong offensive profiles but defensive lapses, making both teams to score a logical expectation. Bahia's home resilience and Corinthians' attacking resurgence under Diniz create a dynamic contest where goals at both ends are probable.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in 9 of Bahia's last 11 league matches, highlighting consistent attacking output and defensive frailty.

Corinthians have scored in 5 of their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form despite limited away wins.

Bahia has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 11 league games, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Corinthians' recent matches have frequently featured three or more goals, indicating open and eventful games.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.5, with a strong trend toward open games.
  • Bahia's 80% BTTS rate and Corinthians' 60% BTTS rate in recent matches further underline the likelihood of goals at both ends.
  • The trend over recent matches suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals and attacking transitions.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia1.6
Avg goals scored
Corinthians2.2
Bahia1.2
Avg goals conceded
Corinthians1.2
Bahia80%
BTTS rate
Corinthians60%
Bahia40%
Over 2.5 goals
Corinthians80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Bahia has seen both teams score in 9 of their last 11 league matches, demonstrating a pattern of open games with defensive frailty. Corinthians' last six league matches have featured at least three goals in five instances, highlighting their attacking potency and the likelihood of goals at both ends. This combination supports the BTTS selection.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hubBahia v Corinthians predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Bahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.8 with an implied probability of 55.6%, while the model estimates a 76% chance, indicating clear value. This price reflects the market's underestimation of the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses on both sides. The current offer a positive value opportunity without requiring caution or reduced stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bahia8.25
Avg corners for
Corinthians4.6
Bahia12.25
Avg total corners
Corinthians8.2
Bahia3.25
Avg yellow cards
Corinthians1.8
Bahia18
Avg shots
Corinthians16.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 55% · edge +10.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Bahia averages 8.25 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Corinthians average 4.6 corners, reflecting a more measured approach. Bahia's higher average of 3.25 yellow cards per game versus Corinthians' 1.8 suggests a more aggressive defensive style that could lead to set-piece opportunities. Both teams generate similar shots on target, supporting the expectation of offensive activity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
21 Jul 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
17 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-0
30 May 2026H Botafogo2-1
26 May 2026A Coritiba2-3
17 May 2026H Gremio1-1

Corinthians

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
23 Jul 2026H Remo3-0
30 May 2026A Gremio3-1
24 May 2026H Atletico-MG1-0
17 May 2026A Botafogo1-3
10 May 2026H Sao Paulo3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Bahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Bahia has collected 8 points from recent matches, scoring 1.6 goals per game but conceding 1.2, reflecting their attacking consistency and defensive vulnerability. Corinthians have earned 12 points recently, scoring 2.2 goals per game while conceding 1.2, showing stronger offensive output and similar defensive exposure. Both teams' recent form aligns with an expectation of goals at both ends.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Bahia wins
3Draws
3Corinthians wins
28 Jan 2026Corinthians v Bahia1-2
17 Aug 2025Corinthians v Bahia1-2
31 Mar 2025Bahia v Corinthians1-1
03 Dec 2024Corinthians v Bahia3-0
21 Jul 2024Bahia v Corinthians0-1
25 Nov 2023Corinthians v Bahia1-5
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent head-to-head meetings show Bahia unbeaten in the last three encounters against Corinthians, including two wins. The average goals per game in these fixtures is 2.5, indicating a balanced but open contest. While historical control favors Bahia recently, the sample size is moderate, so current form and tactical factors carry more weight for this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Bahia20
Played
Corinthians20
Bahia1.5
Avg goals for
Corinthians1.1
Bahia1.3
Avg goals against
Corinthians1
Bahia5
Clean sheets
Corinthians8
Best odds for this sectionCorinthians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Bahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over the season, Bahia has scored in all but one league game but kept only one clean sheet in their last 11 matches, indicating a pattern of conceding regularly. Corinthians have scored in most away matches, failing to score only twice, and have a higher rate of over 2.5 goals games, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Bahia31208754
8Corinthians28207762
Bahia sits 6th with 30 points, just ahead of 7th-placed Corinthians with 27 points, both vying for top-four positions. This proximity in standings heightens the stakes, encouraging attacking play to secure vital points. The competitive context suggests both teams will seek goals rather than settle for defensive caution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Bahia Over 2.5
80%Corinthians Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.5, with a strong trend toward open games. Bahia's 80% BTTS rate and Corinthians' 60% BTTS rate in recent matches further underline the likelihood of goals at both ends. The trend over recent matches suggests a tempo favoring multiple goals and attacking transitions.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bahia v Corinthians prediction

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