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Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro
v
Botafogo crestBotafogo

Serie A | Sun 26 Jul, 20:00

Cruzeiro v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 09:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cruzeiro hosts Botafogo in a tightly contested Serie A clash with just one point separating the sides in the standings. Cruzeiro arrives in strong form, boasting six wins in their last ten league matches and an average possession rate of 58%, reflecting their control-oriented style. Despite this, Cruzeiro’s defense has conceded in each of their last five games, leaving openings for Botafogo’s potent attack, led by Arthur Cabral. Botafogo, meanwhile, have struggled to convert possession into wins, drawing five of their last ten matches but maintaining a solid goal-scoring record. This fixture promises a tactical battle between Cruzeiro’s midfield control and Botafogo’s direct attacking threat, with both teams likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Cruzeiro to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Cruzeiro has won 6 of their last 10 league matches, averaging 58% possession.
  • Cruzeiro conceded exactly one goal in each of their last 5 league games.
  • Botafogo averages 1.7 goals and 6.1 shots on target per match over their last 10 games.
  • Both teams have a history of scoring, with Cruzeiro’s BTTS rate at 100% and Botafogo’s at 80%.
  • The recent head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates 'Cruzeiro to Win & Both Teams to Score' with a 41.2% chance, above the implied market probability of 31.3%, indicating strong value. Cruzeiro’s consistent possession control and six wins in ten matches underpin their winning potential, while their defensive vulnerability aligns with Botafogo’s solid attacking output, making both teams scoring likely. The model also notes the balanced offensive and defensive stats, supporting a competitive match with goals at both ends. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance41.2%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance31.3%
Positive
Cruzeiro Recent Form6 wins in last 10 matches
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilityConceded in last 5 matches
Positive
Botafogo Attack1.7 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cruzeiro’s ability to control possession and create chances combined with Botafogo’s consistent goal-scoring threat makes a home win with both teams scoring a logical outcome. The match’s narrow league gap and recent form suggest a competitive game where defensive lapses on both sides will likely be punished, supporting the combined bet.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and attacking balance

“Cruzeiro’s midfield control paired with Botafogo’s attacking efficiency sets the stage for a closely fought match where both sides find the net, making this combined market a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Cruzeiro to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Cruzeiro has won 6 of their last 10 league matches, averaging 58% possession.

Cruzeiro conceded exactly one goal in each of their last 5 league games.

Botafogo averages 1.7 goals and 6.1 shots on target per match over their last 10 games.

Both teams have a history of scoring, with Cruzeiro’s BTTS rate at 100% and Botafogo’s at 80%.

What To Watch In The Data

Cruzeiro to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, with a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals for both sides recently.
  • This trend supports the expectation of a lively encounter with multiple goals, consistent with the combined pick of a home win and both teams scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cruzeiro1.6
Avg goals scored
Botafogo1.4
Cruzeiro1
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo1
Cruzeiro100%
BTTS rate
Botafogo80%
Cruzeiro60%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have shown strong scoring consistency recently, with Cruzeiro scoring in all of their last five matches and Botafogo scoring in four of five. Cruzeiro’s defensive frailty and Botafogo’s attacking stats, including 1.7 goals per game, support a scenario where both sides find the net in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubfull betting preview for Cruzeiro v Botafogocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The current of 3.2 for 'Cruzeiro to Win & Both Teams to Score' offer clear value, with the at 41.2% exceeding the implied market probability of 31.3%. This price reflects in Cruzeiro’s home form and Botafogo’s scoring ability, making it an attractive proposition without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cruzeiro6.8
Avg corners for
Botafogo4.8
Cruzeiro11.4
Avg total corners
Botafogo9.6
Cruzeiro3.4
Avg yellow cards
Botafogo3.8
Cruzeiro16.2
Avg shots
Botafogo15.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cruzeiro averages 6.5 corners per game compared to Botafogo’s 3.75, indicating more attacking pressure from the home side. Botafogo’s higher average of 4.5 yellow cards per game suggests a more aggressive defensive approach, while shot data shows both teams generate significant shooting opportunities, underpinning an open, contested match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cruzeiro

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
23 Jul 2026A Internacional2-1
01 Jun 2026H Fluminense1-1
24 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-1
17 May 2026A Palmeiras1-1
10 May 2026A Bahia2-1

Botafogo

DWLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
23 Jul 2026H Vitoria0-0
16 Jul 2026H Santos2-1
30 May 2026A Bahia1-2
23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
17 May 2026H Corinthians3-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 85% · edge -2 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Cruzeiro’s recent form is strong, with 11 points from their last five matches and an average of 1.6 goals scored per game, though they concede an average of one goal. Botafogo has collected 8 points in the same span, scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding one, reflecting a competitive but slightly less consistent run. This form data aligns with the expectation of a close match with goals at both ends.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Cruzeiro wins
5Draws
1Botafogo wins
30 Jan 2026Botafogo v Cruzeiro4-0
04 Dec 2025Cruzeiro v Botafogo2-2
03 Aug 2025Botafogo v Cruzeiro0-2
28 Jul 2024Botafogo v Cruzeiro0-3
14 Apr 2024Cruzeiro v Botafogo3-2
03 Dec 2023Botafogo v Cruzeiro0-0
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows a balanced rivalry with five draws, four Cruzeiro wins, and one Botafogo victory. The average of 2.6 goals per game in these encounters suggests a history of open matches, lending moderate support to the expectation of goals from both sides in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Serie A

Cruzeiro20
Played
Botafogo20
Cruzeiro1.3
Avg goals for
Botafogo1.7
Cruzeiro1.5
Avg goals against
Botafogo1.6
Cruzeiro4
Clean sheets
Botafogo3
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over the season, Cruzeiro ranks 8th with 27 points, showing solid attacking output averaging 1.6 goals per game but defensive lapses with one goal conceded per match. Botafogo sits just behind in 9th with 26 points, scoring slightly less but maintaining a similar defensive record. These stats reinforce the likelihood of a narrow home win with both teams scoring.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Botafogo29208572
9Cruzeiro2720767-4
The narrow one-point gap between Cruzeiro and Botafogo in the league table adds significance to this fixture, with both teams vying for valuable points to improve their positions. This competitive context suggests high motivation and intensity, likely contributing to an open game where both sides push for goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
60%Botafogo Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game stand at 2.6, with a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals for both sides recently. This trend supports the expectation of a lively encounter with multiple goals, consistent with the combined pick of a home win and both teams scoring.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Cruzeiro v Botafogo prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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