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Fluminense crestFluminense

Serie A | Sun 26 Jul, 22:30

Gremio v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 14:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio hosts Fluminense in a Serie A clash where both teams show contrasting league positions but similar attacking intent. Gremio, positioned 16th, seeks to leverage home advantage to improve their form, while Fluminense, sitting 4th, aims to maintain momentum. Both sides have averaged multiple corners per game recently, reflecting active wing play and offensive pressure. The match promises territorial battles and set-piece opportunities, with Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities and Fluminense's attacking fluidity setting the stage for a corner-rich encounter under evening conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Gremio averages 3.8 corners per game, Fluminense 6.67, combining for over 10 per match.
  • Both teams play with attacking intent, reflected in high shots and set-piece involvement.
  • Fluminense ranks 4th, often pressing high and winning corners through sustained attacks.
  • Gremio's defensive struggles lead to frequent defensive clearances and corners conceded.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 8.5 Corners with a 75% chance, supported by both teams' strong corner averages and attacking styles. Fluminense's higher corner rate and Gremio's defensive pressure create a fertile environment for multiple corners. The match's tempo and territorial exchanges further increase corner opportunities. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on solid data and football context.

Combined Corner AverageOver 10 corners per game
Strong positive
Attacking StyleHigh shot volume and wing play
Positive
Defensive PressureGremio concedes many corners
Positive
Model Confidence75% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a corner-heavy match as Fluminense's aggressive wing play meets Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities. The data shows both teams generate and concede numerous corners, making Over 8.5 Corners a logical choice. Tactical openness and set-piece battles should drive the corner count above the threshold.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“Fluminense's high pressing and Gremio's defensive frailties set the stage for a corner-laden game. Both teams' attacking patterns and recent corner stats strongly support the Over 8.5 Corners selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Gremio averages 3.8 corners per game, Fluminense 6.67, combining for over 10 per match.

Both teams play with attacking intent, reflected in high shots and set-piece involvement.

Fluminense ranks 4th, often pressing high and winning corners through sustained attacks.

Gremio's defensive struggles lead to frequent defensive clearances and corners conceded.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals stand at 2.7, indicating moderately open games.
  • While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking exchanges seen historically suggest a match environment conducive to multiple corners through sustained pressure and transitions.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1.2
Avg goals scored
Fluminense1.2
Gremio1.8
Avg goals conceded
Fluminense1.2
Gremio80%
BTTS rate
Fluminense80%
Gremio60%
Over 2.5 goals
Fluminense40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams average 1.2 goals per game with Gremio's matches featuring 60% Over 2.5 goals and Fluminense 40%. Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating open games that often lead to attacking pressure and corner opportunities, supporting the corner market indirectly.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
18 Jul 2026A Mirassol1-2
30 May 2026H Corinthians1-3
23 May 2026H Santos3-2
17 May 2026A Bahia1-1
10 May 2026H Flamengo0-1

Fluminense

DDLWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
18 Jul 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
01 Jun 2026A Cruzeiro1-1
23 May 2026A Mirassol0-1
16 May 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
09 May 2026H Vitoria2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 79% vs implied 69% · edge +9.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form shows Gremio with 4 points and Fluminense with 6 from their last matches. Both teams have high corner rates in recent games, with Fluminense's aggressive style maintaining pressure and Gremio's defensive lapses leading to corners conceded. This trend supports the Over 8.5 Corners pick.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fluminense33209655
15Gremio2220578-4
Fluminense's 4th place with 32 points contrasts with Gremio's 16th and 21 points, reflecting differing stakes. Fluminense's push for top positions encourages attacking play and corner wins, while Gremio's need for points may lead to open play and defensive pressure, both factors increasing corner opportunities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
The Over 8.5 Corners market is priced without visible but the model's 75% indicates a strong statistical basis. Both teams' corner averages and attacking tendencies justify this selection as a value bet with standard staking recommended.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio3.8
Avg corners for
Fluminense5.8
Gremio10
Avg total corners
Fluminense10
Gremio2.6
Avg yellow cards
Fluminense2.6
Gremio8
Avg shots
Fluminense13.4
Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Fluminense averages 6.67 corners per game, significantly higher than Gremio's 3.8, reflecting their attacking control and wing play. Both teams average around 2.5 yellow cards combined, showing moderate fouling that can disrupt rhythm and lead to set-piece situations. Shot volumes favor Fluminense, increasing corner chances from blocked or deflected attempts.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Gremio wins
1Draws
4Fluminense wins
28 Jan 2026Fluminense v Gremio2-1
03 Dec 2025Gremio v Fluminense1-2
03 Aug 2025Fluminense v Gremio1-0
02 Nov 2024Fluminense v Gremio2-2
20 Aug 2024Fluminense v Gremio2-1
13 Aug 2024Gremio v Fluminense2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 10 previous meetings average 2.7 goals per game, showing moderately open contests. While goal data is more relevant here, the attacking nature of these encounters suggests frequent wing play and set-piece situations, indirectly supporting a higher corner count for this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie A

Gremio20
Played
Fluminense20
Gremio1.1
Avg goals for
Fluminense1.5
Gremio1.3
Avg goals against
Fluminense1.3
Gremio5
Clean sheets
Fluminense3
Best odds for this sectionFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 38% · edge +14.2 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Season-long data reveals Fluminense's strong corner generation at 6.67 per game and Gremio's moderate 3.8. Gremio's defense concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating pressure that often results in corners. These season stats underpin the likelihood of a high corner count in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gremio Over 2.5
40%Fluminense Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals stand at 2.7, indicating moderately open games. While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking exchanges seen historically suggest a match environment conducive to multiple corners through sustained pressure and transitions.

Related football research

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