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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

Serie A | Sun 26 Jul, 00:30

Vasco DA Gama v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 05:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Vasco DA Gama hosting Mirassol in a contest where Mirassol arrives in better recent form, having collected seven points from their last few matches compared to Vasco DA Gama's three. Mirassol's attack has been more effective, averaging a goal per game, while Vasco DA Gama struggles with just 0.4 goals per match and a leaky defense conceding 1.8 goals on average. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Mirassol's ability to exploit defensive vulnerabilities and maintain their momentum away from home, setting up an intriguing contest with Mirassol as the slight favorite.

BT4Y best bet

Mirassol to Win

  • Mirassol has earned 7 points recently, showing stronger form than Vasco DA Gama's 3 points.
  • Vasco DA Gama scores only 0.4 goals per game, while Mirassol averages 1 goal per match.
  • Mirassol concedes fewer goals (1.2) compared to Vasco DA Gama's 1.8, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Mirassol averages more corners (5.4) and maintains a higher BTTS rate (60%) than Vasco DA Gama (20%).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Mirassol to win with a 65.4% chance based on superior recent form and a more balanced attack and defense profile. Mirassol's ability to create chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Vasco DA Gama's struggles in both areas. Player-level data highlights Mirassol's attackers like Nathan Fogaça and Bruno Santos as consistent goal threats, reinforcing the likelihood of an away victory. No price warning is necessary as the reflect the model's , making this a solid selection for standard stakes.

Recent FormMirassol's 7 points vs Vasco DA Gama's 3
Strong positive
Attack EfficiencyMirassol 1.0 goals/game vs Vasco DA Gama 0.4
Positive
Defensive StabilityMirassol concedes 1.2 goals vs Vasco DA Gama 1.8
Positive
Player ThreatsNathan Fogaça and Bruno Santos key attackers for Mirassol
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mirassol's recent form and balanced team performance make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their more effective attack and tighter defense provide a clear edge over Vasco DA Gama, who have struggled to score and defend consistently. This combination of form and quality suggests Mirassol is well placed to claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Mirassol's consistent attacking output and defensive resilience position them strongly to overcome Vasco DA Gama, whose offensive struggles and defensive lapses have been costly this season.”

Key Data Signals

Mirassol to Win evidence

Mirassol has earned 7 points recently, showing stronger form than Vasco DA Gama's 3 points.

Vasco DA Gama scores only 0.4 goals per game, while Mirassol averages 1 goal per match.

Mirassol concedes fewer goals (1.2) compared to Vasco DA Gama's 1.8, indicating defensive solidity.

Mirassol averages more corners (5.4) and maintains a higher BTTS rate (60%) than Vasco DA Gama (20%).

What To Watch In The Data

Mirassol to Win notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • Both teams have shown a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a moderate likelihood of a higher-scoring match driven by attacking intent and defensive lapses on both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vasco DA Gama3.8
Avg corners for
Mirassol5.4
Vasco DA Gama7.6
Avg total corners
Mirassol9.6
Vasco DA Gama1.6
Avg yellow cards
Mirassol1.6
Vasco DA Gama16.4
Avg shots
Mirassol13.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 58% · edge -3.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Mirassol averages more corners (5.4) and maintains a slightly higher foul rate, indicating they press more and create wider attacking opportunities. Vasco DA Gama's higher average shots (17) but lower shots on target (5.75) suggest less clinical finishing. The card counts are similar, implying a balanced discipline level, with Mirassol's pressure likely to generate more set-piece chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama0.4
Avg goals scored
Mirassol1
Vasco DA Gama1.8
Avg goals conceded
Mirassol1.2
Vasco DA Gama20%
BTTS rate
Mirassol60%
Vasco DA Gama40%
Over 2.5 goals
Mirassol40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have shown contrasting goal trends, with Mirassol averaging one goal per game and a 60% BTTS rate, while Vasco DA Gama scores less and rarely sees both teams score. This suggests a moderate chance for goals from Mirassol, but a lower likelihood of both teams scoring, reflecting the defensive vulnerabilities of Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol's attacking intent.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The for Mirassol to win align well with the model's 65% probability, indicating a fair price without significant value concerns. This reflects Mirassol's superior recent form and balanced team stats, suggesting the market views them as the likely winners, making this a straightforward selection without the need for caution on price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1
31 May 2026H Atletico-MG0-1
25 May 2026H RB Bragantino0-3
16 May 2026A Internacional1-4
11 May 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-0

Mirassol

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
18 Jul 2026H Gremio2-1
30 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense0-1
23 May 2026H Fluminense1-0
16 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-3
10 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-1
Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Mirassol's recent run of 7 points contrasts with Vasco DA Gama's 3, highlighting a momentum advantage. Mirassol's ability to score and concede fewer goals reflects improved balance and , while Vasco DA Gama's struggles to find the net and defensive frailties have hampered results. This form disparity supports Mirassol's chances to continue their positive trajectory in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Vasco DA Gama wins
0Draws
3Mirassol wins
29 Jan 2026Mirassol v Vasco DA Gama2-1
02 Dec 2025Vasco DA Gama v Mirassol0-2
02 Aug 2025Mirassol v Vasco DA Gama3-2
Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The three previous meetings between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol have averaged 3.33 goals per game, reflecting open contests. While the sample is small, it suggests both teams have the capacity to score, but Mirassol's recent form and defensive improvements give them a slight edge. Historical results provide useful background but should be weighed alongside current form and player availability.
Season team stats

Serie A

Vasco DA Gama19
Played
Mirassol19
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Avg goals for
Mirassol1.1
Vasco DA Gama1.6
Avg goals against
Mirassol1.4
Vasco DA Gama1
Clean sheets
Mirassol1
Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Season-long data shows Mirassol with a more effective attack and tighter defense compared to Vasco DA Gama. Mirassol's higher BTTS rate and corner count indicate sustained offensive pressure, while Vasco DA Gama's low scoring and higher goals conceded underline their defensive vulnerabilities. These trends reinforce Mirassol's overall superiority in both phases of play this season.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Vasco DA Gama2019559-8
18Mirassol1918549-5
With no specific ranking or points data available, the league standings offer limited insight for this fixture. The focus remains on recent form and tactical matchups rather than table pressure, which does not appear to be a decisive factor in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
40%Mirassol Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Both teams have shown a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a moderate likelihood of a higher-scoring match driven by attacking intent and defensive lapses on both sides.

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