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Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 20 Aug, 01:30

Flamengo v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 07:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cruzeiro and Flamengo face off in a high-stakes Copa Libertadores last-16 first leg at the Mineirao, where tactical caution and attacking prowess will collide. Flamengo arrive unbeaten with a potent offense, having scored 14 goals in six group matches, while Cruzeiro bring strong home momentum from recent wins. Both teams have key absences but maintain creative midfielders and forwards capable of breaking down defenses. The midfield battle and defensive adjustments will shape a contest where both sides are expected to find the net, setting up an intriguing two-legged tie.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Flamengo scored 14 goals in six group matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Cruzeiro have scored in their last two home wins, demonstrating finishing quality.
  • Both teams maintain creative midfielders driving central penetration and attacking chances.
  • Flamengo average 112.88 total attacks per game, outpacing Cruzeiro's 98.91.
  • Defensive absences on both sides suggest vulnerabilities that can lead to goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 56.7% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking indicators from Flamengo and Cruzeiro. Flamengo's high volume of attacks and shots, combined with Cruzeiro's recent home scoring form, support this outcome. The implied of 2.0 offer positive value with a 6.7% edge. While defensive absences create vulnerabilities, the attacking consistency and tactical setups favor goals at both ends. No price warnings apply, making this a solid selection based on balanced offensive and defensive dynamics.

Flamengo scoring consistency14 goals in 6 matches
Strong positive
Cruzeiro home scoring formGoals in last two home wins
Positive
Attacking volume comparisonFlamengo 112.88 attacks vs Cruzeiro 98.91
Positive
Defensive absencesKey defenders missing on both sides
Neutral
Market value edge6.7% positive edge at 2.0 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess the attacking quality and tactical impetus to score in this first leg. Flamengo's relentless territorial pressure and Cruzeiro's home scoring momentum suggest a lively contest where defensive vulnerabilities will be tested. Expect both sides to find the net as they balance risk and opportunity in this knockout encounter.

Main risk

Cruzeiro need to exploit home advantage, but treating the first leg like a 90-minute final would be reckless.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Midfield control and attacking balance

“The midfield battle will be crucial, with Flamengo's high pressing and Cruzeiro's counter-attacking threat shaping a match where both teams are likely to score. Defensive absences increase the chance of goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Flamengo scored 14 goals in six group matches, showing strong attacking form.

Cruzeiro have scored in their last two home wins, demonstrating finishing quality.

Both teams maintain creative midfielders driving central penetration and attacking chances.

Flamengo average 112.88 total attacks per game, outpacing Cruzeiro's 98.91.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2 per match, with a moderate tempo suggesting a balanced goal environment.
  • Recent form and attacking patterns indicate a likelihood of goals, though tactical restraint in a knockout first leg could moderate scoring intensity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Flamengo1.67
Avg corners for
Cruzeiro3.5
Flamengo6
Avg total corners
Cruzeiro10.5
Flamengo1
Avg yellow cards
Cruzeiro2.5
Flamengo7.33
Avg shots
Cruzeiro14
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Flamengo and Cruzeiro generate similar shot volumes (12.8 and 12.2 per match respectively) and corners (3.6 and 3.2), indicating balanced attacking pressure. Cruzeiro's higher average of 2.6 yellow cards per match versus Flamengo's 0.8 suggests Cruzeiro may face more disciplinary challenges, potentially affecting match tempo and defensive stability.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo1.8
Avg goals scored
Cruzeiro1.4
Flamengo0.4
Avg goals conceded
Cruzeiro0.4
Flamengo40%
BTTS rate
Cruzeiro40%
Flamengo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 51% · edge +5.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Both Flamengo and Cruzeiro show strong scoring patterns, with Flamengo averaging 1.8 goals per match and Cruzeiro 1.4, alongside a 40% BTTS rate each. Their offensive consistency and defensive absences suggest goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS selection in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 51% · edge +5.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at even (2.0) with an implied 50% chance, while the model estimates a 56.7% probability, indicating positive value. This pricing reflects in both sides' attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, making the market attractive without major price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 0L
13 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-1
27 May 2026H Cusco3-0
21 May 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-0
08 May 2026A Independiente Medellin3-0
30 Apr 2026A Estudiantes L.P.1-1

Cruzeiro

DWDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
13 Aug 2026H Flamengo1-1
29 May 2026H Barcelona SC4-0
20 May 2026A Boca Juniors1-1
07 May 2026A U. Catolica0-0
29 Apr 2026H Boca Juniors1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 44% · edge +12.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Recent form data shows Flamengo with 11 points and 1.8 goals per match, while Cruzeiro have 9 points and 1.4 goals per match. Both teams maintain a 40% BTTS rate, reflecting consistent scoring and conceding trends that align well with the Both Teams to Score market.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Flamengo wins
3Draws
1Cruzeiro wins
13 Aug 2026Cruzeiro v Flamengo1-1
12 Mar 2026Flamengo v Cruzeiro2-0
03 Oct 2025Flamengo v Cruzeiro0-0
04 May 2025Cruzeiro v Flamengo2-1
07 Nov 2024Cruzeiro v Flamengo0-1
30 Jun 2024Flamengo v Cruzeiro2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 51% · edge +5.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.2 goals per game, supporting a moderate scoring expectation. Previous encounters suggest balanced competitiveness, with no overwhelming control, reinforcing the plausibility of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Flamengo6
Played
Cruzeiro7
Flamengo2
Avg goals for
Cruzeiro1.3
Flamengo0.5
Avg goals against
Cruzeiro0.6
Flamengo3
Clean sheets
Cruzeiro4
Best odds for this sectionCruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Season-long stats reveal Flamengo's superior attacking output and territorial control, averaging 112.88 attacks per game and conceding only 0.4 goals per match, matched by Cruzeiro's solid defensive record at home. These profiles underpin the expectation of goals from both sides in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Flamengo16651012
2Cruzeiro1163215
Flamengo and Cruzeiro occupy the top two positions in the competition standings, with Flamengo leading on 16 points and Cruzeiro second on 11. While standings indicate strong overall performance, the knockout nature of this tie prioritizes tactical caution and match-specific dynamics over table position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Flamengo Over 2.5
20%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2 per match, with a moderate tempo suggesting a balanced goal environment. Recent form and attacking patterns indicate a likelihood of goals, though tactical restraint in a knockout first leg could moderate scoring intensity.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Flamengo v Cruzeiro prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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