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Cerro Porteno crestCerro Porteno
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 19 Aug, 23:00

Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026, 07:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras host Cerro Porteno in a pivotal Copa Libertadores clash at Allianz Parque, aiming to secure early qualification from Group F. Palmeiras enter unbeaten in the group and lead the Brasileirão, yet face injury setbacks to key attackers Felipe Anderson and Ramón Sosa, which temper their usual attacking explosiveness. Despite this, Palmeiras maintain a structured, possession-based approach, relying on disciplined midfield control and the goal threat of Flaco López. Cerro Porteno arrive with a resolute defensive setup, conceding only two goals in four group matches, and will look to frustrate Palmeiras' rhythm while seeking opportunities through physical forward Pablo Vegetti. The tactical battle promises a tight, low-scoring contest with high stakes for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Palmeiras unbeaten in last 7 Libertadores meetings vs Cerro Porteno, winning 6.
  • Palmeiras' last 7 matches finished under 2.5 goals, reflecting cautious control.
  • Cerro Porteno conceded only 2 goals in 4 Libertadores games, showcasing defensive discipline.
  • Palmeiras average over 15 shots per match, pressing high despite injuries.
  • Cerro Porteno rely on Pablo Vegetti as a physical target man against Palmeiras' strong central defense.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Palmeiras Win & Under 2.5 Goals due to Palmeiras' dominant recent form and tactical control, combined with Cerro Porteno's strong defensive record. Palmeiras' injury-hit attack still generates high shot volumes, but recent matches show a trend toward low-scoring outcomes. Cerro Porteno's compact defensive shape and low goal concession rate suggest a tight match. The offer a small positive , reflecting a realistic chance for Palmeiras to secure a narrow victory in a controlled game. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Palmeiras recent formUnbeaten, strong control, cautious scoring
Strong positive
Cerro Porteno defensive recordOnly 2 goals conceded in 4 games
Strong positive
Goal scoring trendsLast 7 Palmeiras matches under 2.5 goals
Positive
Injury impactKey attackers missing but structure intact
Neutral
Price vs model chanceOdds imply 16.7%, model chance 20.4%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palmeiras' tactical discipline and psychological edge from recent Libertadores control position them well to control this match despite injury setbacks. Cerro Porteno's defensive resilience will limit chances, making a narrow Palmeiras win with few goals the most probable outcome. This pick balances Palmeiras' attacking pressure with the visitors' compact shape effectively.

Main risk

There is, however, a slight contradiction surrounding Palmeiras right now.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match control and defensive tactics

“Palmeiras' ability to maintain control and defensive solidity under injury pressure highlights their continental maturity, while Cerro Porteno's stubborn defense sets the stage for a tactical, low-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Palmeiras unbeaten in last 7 Libertadores meetings vs Cerro Porteno, winning 6.

Palmeiras' last 7 matches finished under 2.5 goals, reflecting cautious control.

Cerro Porteno conceded only 2 goals in 4 Libertadores games, showcasing defensive discipline.

Palmeiras average over 15 shots per match, pressing high despite injuries.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.44, with Palmeiras unbeaten in seven encounters.
  • Palmeiras' last seven matches all finished under 2.5 goals, indicating a trend toward controlled, low-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a tactical match with limited goal-scoring opportunities, consistent with the expected cautious approach from both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cerro Porteno3.2
Avg corners for
Palmeiras5
Cerro Porteno9
Avg total corners
Palmeiras9.6
Cerro Porteno2.8
Avg yellow cards
Palmeiras1.2
Cerro Porteno9.2
Avg shots
Palmeiras17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Palmeiras average 17.2 shots and 5 corners per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Cerro Porteno's lower averages (9.2 shots, 3.2 corners) reflect a more defensive posture. Card data shows Cerro Porteno players like F. Peralta carry higher card risk, hinting at a physical, intense match with fouls disrupting flow and potentially limiting attacking rhythm.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cerro Porteno1.2
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.6
Cerro Porteno0.4
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras0.8
Cerro Porteno40%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras60%
Cerro Porteno0%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Goal and BTTS data indicate a low-scoring match with limited goal threats. Palmeiras' last seven matches all ended under 2.5 goals, while Cerro Porteno have conceded only twice in four games, emphasizing defensive compactness. BTTS rates are moderate, with Palmeiras at 60% and Cerro Porteno at 40%, suggesting cautious attacking intent and a likely single-team scoring scenario.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 29% vs implied 56% · edge -26.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The market prices Palmeiras Win & Under 2.5 Goals at around 5/1, reflecting a small positive versus the model's 20.4% chance. This price is justified by Palmeiras' unbeaten record and tactical control, balanced against injury concerns and Cerro Porteno's defensive strength. The reward a realistic scenario of a narrow, low-scoring home win, making this a price-sensitive but attractive option.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cerro Porteno

DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
12 Aug 2026A Palmeiras1-1
28 May 2026H Sporting Cristal2-0
21 May 2026A Palmeiras1-0
08 May 2026A Junior1-0
30 Apr 2026H Palmeiras1-1

Palmeiras

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1
28 May 2026H Junior4-1
21 May 2026H Cerro Porteno0-1
05 May 2026A Sporting Cristal2-0
30 Apr 2026A Cerro Porteno1-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 85% · edge -28.9 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Palmeiras' recent form shows consistent control with eight points from four group matches and a strong domestic campaign. Their matches trend toward low-scoring outcomes, with a focus on possession and defensive solidity. Cerro Porteno's form is more defensive, conceding few goals but struggling to score, reflecting a cautious away approach. This form data supports a Palmeiras win with limited goals scored.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Cerro Porteno wins
2Draws
6Palmeiras wins
12 Aug 2026Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno1-1
21 May 2026Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno0-1
30 Apr 2026Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras1-1
08 May 2025Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras0-2
10 Apr 2025Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno1-0
24 May 2023Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras0-3
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 29% vs implied 56% · edge -26.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The head-to-head record heavily favors Palmeiras, unbeaten in the last seven Libertadores meetings against Cerro Porteno and winning six. This psychological advantage is significant, as Palmeiras have consistently controlled these encounters. While the average goals per match is moderate at 2.44, the recent trend of tight scorelines supports the expectation of a narrow Palmeiras victory in this fixture.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno8
Played
Palmeiras8
Cerro Porteno0.9
Avg goals for
Palmeiras1.5
Cerro Porteno0.5
Avg goals against
Palmeiras0.8
Cerro Porteno4
Clean sheets
Palmeiras2
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 29% vs implied 56% · edge -26.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Season statistics underline Palmeiras' attacking volume with over 15 shots per game and a high number of dangerous attacks, balanced by a disciplined defense conceding fewer than one goal per match. Cerro Porteno's season stats emphasize defensive resilience, conceding only 0.4 goals per match, but limited offensive output, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Cerro Porteno1364114
2Palmeiras1163215
Group F standings show Cerro Porteno leading with 13 points and Palmeiras close behind with 11, highlighting the high stakes of this fixture. Palmeiras' position as Brasileirão leaders adds in their quality and squad depth despite injuries. The standings pressure both teams to secure points, but Palmeiras' psychological edge and home advantage suggest they are favored to maintain their unbeaten Libertadores run.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Cerro Porteno Over 2.5
20%Palmeiras Over 2.5
2.44H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.44, with Palmeiras unbeaten in seven encounters. Palmeiras' last seven matches all finished under 2.5 goals, indicating a trend toward controlled, low-scoring games. This trend suggests a tactical match with limited goal-scoring opportunities, consistent with the expected cautious approach from both sides.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras prediction

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